AFL Rd. 18.

[TazaD]

Also on another note, next week could be a good week for us all multi punter. Freo vs Hawk : Freo (Home) Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong : Brisb.L (Home) Carlton vs. Melbourne : Melbourne Richmond vs. Western Bulldogs : Doggies seems a good multi bet nxt week, but ofc its too early to conlcude anything yet :) -------------------------------------------------------- Hope you jumped on early, Ucoabis...All of those pricesd have already fallen significantly. However, not sure I'd be too keen on taking Brisbane as 1.60 favs. I know Geelong aren't very good...even moreso without Ablett, Mooney and probably Ling, but Brisbane did concern me last week that they did seem to simply give up and play "let's keep Mal Michael happy" for the last 40 minutes. Charman out could be significant too. As bad as they are playing, Geelong still have he backline to hold Bradshaw...and it doesn't look like Brisbane's goal kicking is going to improve either! Tough one to call, imo. Really like the Saints -5.5, Melbourne -31.5, Sydney -22.5...like the Dogs to bounce back with a decent win, but laying 3 goals with them is a bit much... ...I also suspect Port can keep it close to the Kangaroos. Given what should be a very slow, low scoring game, 17 points looks a lot. Tough to know how Adelaide will respond this week. I think last week was reasonably explainable due to their increased training load, but I also suspect they miss McLeod a fair bit, and not being a big believer in the 'bounce back' theory, I'm more the other way, one below average effort is generally followed by another. Freo could win by 100, but as shown last week, the Dockers and big victories don't mix well.

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. This week Multi Bet: Freo to win Melbourne to win Sydney to win Bulldogs to win 10/10 @ 2.4 TAB Sportsbet Odds Single Bet St.Kilda -5.5 10/10 @ 1.85 TAB Sportsbet Odds Footie 'Just 4 Fun' Bet Brisbane to Win St. Kilda to Win EITHER TEAM UNDER 15.5 Pts for Roos vs Port Odds in total : 9.9 @ TAB Sportsbet Stake : 2/10 Reasoning: Freo and Bulldogs to win I dont think I need to explain a lot about that as I feel it is obvious. Melbourne even though were beaten by Charlton in the early round but they are simply the better team here. With Charlton missing whole swag of players that adds more to why I think Melbourne will win it with ease. Even though Bombers finally won their match after long streak of not winning, I dont see them here winning still in SCG. Swans overally have stronger bodies compared to Bombers and to note they are playing in their homeground. About the single bet, I really think St. Kilda will win by more than 1 goal at least and realistically I say St Kilda would beat them by 2 goals. St. Kilda performance on the few last weeks has been amazing and on top of the cream, they are playing @ home. It is true West Coast are creating a good win last week but I dont see them a team who have inconsistent performance to outperform a team on good and consistent form like St. Kilda For the Brisbane inclusion, I myself might re-think aobut picking them, but Geelong lost their three key players in Gary Ablett,Cameron Ling and Cameron Mooney. While Troy Selwood would return to play for Brisbane and Mal Michael, Brown, and Pask might return to play this week if they are deemed fit. Might be a bit risky, but since its a fun bet, might as well go for the high odds ;) with a small stake of course.

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Current Bank 181.4pts (Starting Bank 100pts @ Rd16) Multi1: St Kilda 1.70 Melbourne 1.16 Western Bulldogs (-17.5pts) 1.90 --------------------------------- 11.4pts @ 3.75 with centrebet Multi2: St Kilda 1.70 Melbourne 1.16 Sydney 1.28 Kangaroos 1.48 Fremantle 1.16 --------------------------------- 10pts @ 4.45 with centrebet Multi3: St Kilda 1.70 Western Bulldogs (-22.5pts) 2.10 Sydney 1.24 Collingwood (+20.5pts) 1.90 Brisbane 1.62 Fremantle 1.16 --------------------------------- 10pts @ 15.81 with centrebet Multi4: St Kilda 1.72 Western Bulldogs 1.35 Melbourne 1.15 Fremantle 1.15 -------------------------------- 40pts @ 3.07 with centrebet NEW Current Bank 110pts (Starting Bank 100pts @ Rd16)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Melbourne -31.5 Very low spread for a top 3 team v. bottom team, imo. Melbourne have shown that they are the real deal as a legitimate top 4 team, where Carlton just aren't getting any better! ...I guess on the surface, Carlton have only lost one of their last 7 games by more than 30 points!...But in reality there was a solid performance v. a faltering West Coast, a 19 point loss to the poor Kangaroos (8 less I50's), 13 less I50's and 10 less shots in a 15 point loss @ Brisbane, who kicked TERRIBLY (8.23!!), a 65 point loss to a pretty ordinary Geelong at this venue (16 less I50's), a 30 point loss to the tiring Bulldogs, a draw against an Essendon team that had won just one game, and a very flattering 18 point loss last week with 13 less I50's, 8 less shots and a 48 point margin with about 5 minutes to play. (v. Freo who are well-known for their lapses) Melbourne have won 8 of their last 10 games, with the two losses both being in Perth. 5 of the 8 wins by more than this, with close wins away @ Brisbane, home to a top-6 St. Kilda and and 18 point win that should have been a LOT more v. Richmond. Carlton have allowed a league high 57 I50's a game in their last 5!!, and Melbourne, who are very efficient up forward will be able to take full advantage. They have scored every 1.78 entries in their last 5, 3rd only behind Sydney and Adelaide. The Demons' defense continues to be under-rated (helped by the pressure their mid-field puts on), and they haven't allowed 100+ since Adelaide in Rd. 4, at an av. of just 81 points over their last 10. In Carlton's last 10 they have allowed LESS than 30 shots at goal just twice!! Pretty sure this one gets very messy, very early. Sydney -21.5 Forget last week, the Essendon 'revival' is over! Their last 3 games absolutely flatter the Bombers, but a close game v. St. Kilda in the pouring rain, a win and a draw against 2 teams that simply played ZERO defense in the last 2...esp. last week, when Brisbane put them under no pressure what-so-ever, and even played around putting their Full-Back to Full-Forward in the last quarter, in a game they were clearly not interested in winning. Heading to Sydney, who are still in the hunt for a top 4 spot will be somewhat more difficult! In their last 5, the Swans have allowed the fewest I50's in the AFL, @ just 41 per game!!..a shot just every 2.18 entries, @ 66 points per game over that time. If we take out the game v. the Saints in the pouring rain (19 shots), Essendon have allowed an av of 31 shots per game in their last 10!...and although Sydney haven't been lighting up the scoreboard at home this season, they are definately showing some signs of life, with 31, 22 (Adelaide) and 31 shots at home in their last 3. Sydney have lost 2 of their last 5 at home, but to St. Kilda and Adelaide (top 6 teams), beaten the Bulldogs by 26, Fremantle by 33 and Richmond by 48 last game, all of which are far better teams than Essendon.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. St. Kilda -5.5 The Saints have a couple of major advantages here. Firstly, the Eagles record at the Dome is poor. They lost easily to Collingwood 2 weeks ago (St. Kilda defeated Collingwood by 59 points at the same ground 2 weeks earlier), and only snuck passed Essendon late in rd. 8. The other is the lack of rest the Eagles will have this week. Coming into a Friday night game in Melbourne, off a Sunday afternoon game in Perth will not be easy. St. Kilda have av'd +14 I'50 in their lasty 5 game (admittedly against some poor opp), but even in the Rd. 1 loss @ Perth, the Saints had just 2 I50's less than the Eagles. West Coast allow 4 more I50's a game on the road, and their scoring also suffers, going from a shot every 1.85 entries overall to 1.98 away. The Saints at the Dome are very hard to score against, allowing just 43 I50's and a shot every 2.31 entries this season. I doubt the Eagles will risk Cox on the very hard Dome surface, coming back off a broken Collarbone, Embly also very unlikely and Hunter out, hurt some match-up options for them aswell. Big stage Friday night, and I think the Saints are deserved favourites and really shuld be able to cover the 5.5.

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Tazza...Eagles played Adelaide Saturday Afternoon

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Crap...thanks John!!...for some reason I thought it was Sunday. Cheers mate....might need a re-think.

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 18.

Crap...thanks John!!...for some reason I thought it was Sunday. Cheers mate....might need a re-think.

Even though I put my bets in earlier during the week, I noticed that Embley and Fletcher have come into the side this week and with Baker suspended i'm getting a little worried now with my saints selection. Baker would have eliminated one of their gun (Judd) midfielders. Anyway, i'm off to the dome this evening.....an AFL Full Membership comes in very handy :ok

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Nice one mate. :cheers (Not much good for us poor scrubs down here in Tassie!) Every chance Wirrpunda is a late out for the Eagles...hope that helps. I'm seriously thinking about getting out of this one. :\ ...Last few St. Kilda wins at the Dome have been against some pretty crappy teams...lost to Geelong and thumped by Adelaide. :unsure

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Geez, that Melborne result sure knocked us around! :@ Unbelievable really, to get beaten SU. Port +16.5 The Kangaroos just don't score enough to be favoured by nearly 3 goals...I don't think we can read too much at all into last week's 30 point win over Geelong for several reasons...Geelong lost Ablett and Ling very early in the game, leaving them 2 players short. Geelong have a terrible road record, and had played at that particular ground just once before in 2003 I think, and it was also the Kangaroos last game in Canberra, so reasonably emotional. On the surface, Port have lost the scoring touch aswell, but in their last 6 games they have played against5 of the top 7 defensive teams in the AFL (West Coast, Melb, Gelong, St. K and Sydney)...and they had 24 shots against Richmond on a wet and windy night, but kicked just 6.18! Kangaroos are just 3-4 at the Dome this year, with only 2 wins by more than this v. Hawthorn (22) and Carlton (19) 2 of the bottom 3 teams. Port belted both Carlton and Essendon this season here by 60 and 34, and scored 100+ in both games. In their last 5 games away from home, Port have won 2 (the two games at the Dome), lost to a top 4 Melbourne by 38 and had close losses @ Geelong and away v. St. Kilda. This shold be another close game, and I can't see the Kangaroos running away with an easy win.

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. That was really an upset from Charlton :( Didnt watch the game live myself but from the online scoreline that I've been following they get so close to take over in lead in the early 4th Quarter when they were behind by 2 points only but then Charlton just keep scoring and win the match :(

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Ok then...after being wiped out friday night by the Eagles and the Blue Boys on Saturday :wall . Multibet: Geelong 1.95 Kangaroos 1.44 Freo (-31.5) 1.91 ---------------- 10pts @ 5.36 with centrebet NEW Current Bank 100pts (Starting Bank 100pts @ Rd16)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Hawthorn +33.5

Wet weather and wind forecast for game time could spell trouble for Fremantle herre. Not the mentally toughest team in the AFL, this looks like a massive danger game for them. 4 wins on the trot, but I’m still not convinced about their form. A 37 point win at home over a bottom side and vastly under-manned Essendon, although they had just 2 more shots and 8 less I50’s!!! A 15 point over Collingwood, but with the same amount of shots. A 29 point win at home v. Melbourne, but with 1 less shot, and an 18 point win v. Carlton last week. They have won just 3 games all season by more than this spread, and 2 of them (Essendon and Kangaroos) the games were statistically much closer than the final score suggested. Hawthorn are coming off a big loss v. Collingwood, but Vandenburg, Bateman, Guerra and esp. Williams are big inclusions this week, as with Crawford being better for last week’s run. Hawthorn beat Freo by 22 points in Rd. …although that game was in Launceston, then teams now are much the same as they were that day, in fact Hawthorn’s forward power looks to be increased with Franklin in. But, as I said, the weather will be a big factor here, as the Freo midfield is somewhat ‘soft’, and the Hawks will have a big advantage in clearances and first possession…Fremantle are dead last in the AFL for clearances, and Hawthorn are second best. The ground won’t be an issue as Hawthorn beat Fremantle here last year as 4.35 ‘dogs. They might not win this one, but 33.5 is a lot of points to give Fremantle against anyone.

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 18.

Ok then...after being wiped out friday night by the Eagles and the Blue Boys on Saturday :wall . Multibet: Geelong 1.95 Kangaroos 1.44 Freo (-31.5) 1.91 ---------------- 10pts @ 5.36 with centrebet NEW Current Bank 100pts (Starting Bank 100pts @ Rd16)

Got some of it Back :nana :ok Current Bank 153.60pts

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. Looks like a couple more injuries to the crows, i reckon the dockers will knock'em off at aami, might take the line to be on the safe side :ok

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 18.

Looks like a couple more injuries to the crows' date=' i reckon the dockers will knock'em off at aami, might take the line to be on the safe side :ok[/quote'] Right on the money once again :nana