AFL Rd. 17

[TazaD]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnZ_A Perhaps we should start the R17 thread??? Brisbane havent beaten anyone yet, especially in the last 2 weeks. Forget about the blues or hawks both are crap. i wouldnt underestimate the tigers at the 'G'..love playing there I love the price on the swans at aami :ok

Done. Mate, are you forgetting that Essendon quite literally haven't beaten anyone??!! :lol :lol In fact Brisbane's only losses in their last 10 have been against 4 of the top 5 teams!! Keating back is a huge inclusion...Charman will play forward for the most of the remainder of the season. While obviously no J. Brown, he's certainly big, strong and talented enough to take anyone who Essendon might throw on him apart. (Solomon?...Lee!?)...that is, of course, assuming that Fletcher plays and takes Bradshaw....because if he doesn't play, Brisbane might score 200 here! As free-wheeling and suspect down back as Brisbane are, they've only allowed 100+ in 2 of their last 10 and that was to the Bulldogs and Collingwood...who just happen to be the 2nd and 3rd highest scoring teams in the league. Essendon rank 12th. The only way Richmond get close is if it's wet. Decent record at the 'G, but wins over Ess, Carl & Kanga's (3 of bottom 4) and Collingwood in a downpour... Richo is currently a liability and shouldn't be playing. Brown is trying hard but obviously nowhere near his best. With you on Sydney tho...:ok Well, now I've had a look, Brisbane are into 1.80...should have jumped sooner...I think this is a more realistic reflection.

[ajax_l]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 I'm an Essendon fan and i know there is no chance that we can beat Brisbane. Doesn't matter who plays on Bradshaw, he'll still kick 5 or more as he usually does against the Bombers. TAB gave Brisbane 1.75 which is top value

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 Taza, The Bombers have been decimated with injuries this year......with Hird, McPhee & Fletcher back..these are massive ins, especially with St James. Everytime i've seen the bombers play the lions at the dome, JB has absolutely killed them, he's not playing this time around :ok With respect to Richmond, which I go watch week in week out...all I can say is 'There's nothing more Tigerish than a wounded Tiger' :ok Sorry thats just my heart talking :) Ok lets get some bets happenning 4leg multi: Collingwood StKilda Sydney Fremantle ------------ 10pts @ 4.42 with centrebet Starting Bank 100pts Current Bank 105.20pts

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 I understand the optimism John, but realistically, McPhee has been ordinary all year. Not close checking enough to be a genuine defender, and foot skills aren't good enough to play that loose-type role. Fletcher is a big inclusion...but they need 2 of him! :D And Hird, well, which Hird will be out there?...I mean on the surface he's a big IN, but does he go 100%, or will he be the same Hird who pretty much refused to kick the ball in the last game he played? I know him even being out there will lift the team a certain amount, but if you're only going to play at 60%, at some stage it's going to hurt more than it helps. Anyway, I've managed to effectively get 1.94 for the Lions (layed Ess for 2.06 on BF), which I'm more than happy with. In other games, I kinda like the Hawks, but wants 28.5...not sure if I'll get it... Sydney -5.5...Tredrea out, Motlop out...Port just can't score, and Sydney have been lighting it up on the bigger grounds... ...and Dogs +14.5 looks like it will be a play now...a couple more points on offer than I had first suspected. Pretty sure this one goes down to the wire aswell. (And I have been reading my boys pretty well over the past month or so! :ok ) Good luck guys. :cheers

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 Tazad, where you get the +14.5 for doggies from ? I agree with you it seems a value for doggies :) For Adelaide vs Eagles, I think Adelaide got this in the bag and I was thinking of picking Adealide -11.5. First of all, Eagles got Ben Cousin back but they will miss Hunter which is quite a loss. On the other hand Adelaide also have some injury problems under their lap but I still think its not as big as the one that Eagles possessed. Also morally, Collingwood beat Eagles last week. Revenge factor by Adelaide might be strong here as they were beaten by Eagles in rnd 2 in AAMI stadium, and this time Adelaide are playing at home and should be looking for some revenge. What do you guys think ? Bet : Adelaide -11.5Pts or Adelaide Win Sydney vs Port Well well well, Sydney had done quite well recently, and with Port missing Motlop and Tredrea I think definetely sydney got this one in the bag. Bet : Sydney Win Collingwood vs Hawthorn Impressive win last week against the eagles and hawthorn I dont think have what it take to beat collingwood Bet : Collingwood Charlton vs Freo Impressive win against the demons last week. Moreover Charlton seems in big trouble lately following their funding aid few weeks ago. Didn't win against Essendon who had such a bad form and only managed to draw, Even thou Freo is just ordinary side at its peak, but this time I think Freo will be able to get the edge. Bet : Undecided but leaning towards Freo Lions vs Essendon Well I dont think I need to write anymore, Lion is the answer for this match :) Bet : Lions Win Happy punting all this week :hope

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 +14.5 @ Centebet, Uncoabis. Turning the attention to more long term matters... ...I had another crack at the Ladder Predictor today. I think you're in trouble with Freo makinbg the 8, Ashtee. Almost impossible to get an accurate idea, given that there are 7 (imo) games that could easily go either way... Melbourne/Dogs this weekend, St. Kilda @ Freo, West Coast @ Brisbane, Dogs v. Saints, West Coast v. Freo, Sydney @ Geelong Sydney @ Melbourne... ...but for my current thoughts, the top 8 is now set, and 8th place is 2 games clear of Brisbane in 9th. As I said, almost impossible to read much from it, but one bet that does stand out to me is that Sydney is currently paying 5.50 (at least) to make the GF. They finished 2nd on my results (albeit on the same amount of wins as Colingwood and St. Kilda)...but finishing second would just about see them home. Even finishing 3rd, they have to be favourites to beat anyone likely to finish 2nd "away" (Collingwood, Saints...even Melbourne and West Coast, who I have finishing further down!) EVEN, finishing 4th...getting beaten by Adelaide in wk. 1, would see them not meet the Crows again until the GF. So, the only way the Swans won't make it is by finishing

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 Just watching the Essendon/Brisbane game from Rd. 2, John...and nothing has made me change my mind. The final score is a bit misleading in a couple of ways...Brisbane were a long way in front mid way through the 3rd and eased off...they also had nearly double the shot at that time...in fact it was 12.13 to 10.3 at 3/4 time. Brown had some big numbers, but was surprisingly ineffective...in fact, I'd say that Kepler Bradley soundly beat him up until HT...He had 2.1 at that stage, from 2 marks on his own from turnovers up the ground, and a goal where he roved the pack. I mentioned earlier about Keating freeing Charman up, well Charman played a bit up forward last game but Mitchell Clark was the only other ruckman, so Hille was able to run forward aswell... ...Hird didn't play, but Lloyd kicked 4. Oh, the other 'major' changes for Brisbane since that game is Leppitch out, but he got very little game time anyway...and Chris Johnson out. He played ok, but definately nothing more than Roe is doing each week now anyway. Brisbane 1.95 @ Bet365.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 Sydney -5.5 (bet365) Port are clearly having problems up forward with Tredrea playing hurt...he is out now for the rest of the season, and Motlop, who has been lively at FF is also out. In the last 4 games they have scored 82, 54, 58 & 60, and haven't had more than 24 shots in those games (and that was against the very poor defense of Richmond). Things won't improve against the strong defensive Sydney... On the surface Sydbey have lost 4 of their last 6, but all against top 6 teams...and their scoring has been actually quite good, scoring every 1.79 forward 50 entries (equal best with Melbourne), but some poor conversion is really hurting, kicking 54.77 in those games. That is sure to even out soon! Playing away won't hurt the Swans as they have shown all season their forward line structure works better on the bigger grounds, and I expect them to score enough to get passed an ordinary Port here.

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 Final Bets : Adelaide Win Brisbane Win Sydey Win Multi Pick: -Sydney Win -Collingwood Win -St Kilda Win -Geelong Win Anyone here have any insight Carlton and Freemantle ? Its true Freemantle is on fire, but Charlton are going to play with their best team of this season and charlton are playing @ home ground. Really tough match to call, what do you guys think about this one ?

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 I personally couldn't take Freo as favs away against anyone...Having said that, I see Ashtee is on his "Freo have the best list" high-horse again over at S-P!! ;) ;) Again, just personally, I think Carlton are being a bit undervalued off getting just a draw last week v. Essendon...and the public perception is that "here come Freo" after 3 wins on the trot... But really...they had just 2 more shots than Essendon and 8 LESS INSIDE 50's!!! Same amount of shots against a flailing Collingwood, and 1 less shot and same amount of inside 50's last week against a flat Melbourne. (While Carlton had 11 more inside 50's and 5 more shots than the Bombers last week!) Obviously Carlton haven't won a agme for a long time, but they've been right in the last 6...even in an apparent belting by Geelong they had just 5 less shots. (A lot less inside 50's admittedly) Stats-wise, there's nothing in it. Both tems averaging -5 inside 50's in their last 5 games...in fact in the last 5 games, Freo have av'd the LEAST amount of inside 50's per game @ just 45....however, counteracting that is that Carlton have allowed the most @ 55! Still...Freo score every 1.99 entries, Carlton 2.00 Freo allow a shot every 1.84, Carlton 1.93! Advatage Blues! Home and away stats show pretty much the same thing... Freo av -4 inside 50's, score every 2.10, allow a score every 1.87! A simple head-to-head comparison of each team playing the Bulldogs at the Dome in recent times shows that Freo are a 3 inside 50 and a 6 shot better team than Carlton!! :D...and as simplistic as that is, I think it's about right! Couldn't take Freo as a fav, couldn't take Carlton in a fit!...and I won't be surprised to see the final result very close to the 'predicted' 15 point margin. Probably best left alone, imo.

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 nice write up, thanks a lot TazaD. I guess I'll left that match alone then, was considering CARLTON +17.5. Anyway may I know whats your final pick for this week beside Brisbane and Sydey this week Tazad ?

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 Bombers are sure things :ok 40pts at 2.05 with centrebet 3leg multi Essendon Sydney Geelong -------------- 10pts @ 5.38 with centrebet Starting Bank 100pts Current Bank 55.20pts

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 Right...time to back-pedal...put on a brave face, and yell, "There's nothing more Tigerish thatn a wounded Tiger!"...or something to that effect! :D Richmond +17.5 (Gamebookers) Looks like there will be lots of rain about Melbourne tomorrow...thunderstorms and hail forecast...the whole works. And this has to work in Richmond's favour. St. Kilda have only beaten 3 teams by more than 17 points in their last 10, and Richmond have lost only 3 of their last 10 by more than 18...2 were to Sydney and one was at a ground at which they ha never previosly played. I've said all along that the Saints' D is not as good on bigger grounds...this will be a bit of a non-issue in the wet, but wet weather does tend to favour the team that can't score so much, in that it evens out the skills. The spread is into 15.5 in most places in Australia, and continues to come in. Should at least be a decent middle chance if the rain happens to stay away. (+18.5 at BetFair, but slim prices)

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 Yep Hail, Rain & THUNDERSTORMS are forecast. I'm worried about my 4leg multi now as i have the saints in there, I'll be at the 'G' for that game then over to the Docklands to see the Bombers come home...alot of essendon supporters are confident about this one :ok

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 fingers crossed JohnZ_A lets hope tomorrow the Saints win by little margin so we are all here are 1 big happy family ;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 A lot of "experts" are confident abolut the Bombers too, John! I just can't see it....oh well, we'll know more about this time tomorrow night...

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 theres not a cloud in the sky this morning.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 I just bought my Richond bet back, John...I think the cold front passed a bit further south than they expected, 'cause it's belting down here!! ...But yeah, no rain around Melbourne, and doesn't look to be any on the way.

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 17

I just bought my Richond bet back, John...I think the cold front passed a bit further south than they expected, 'cause it's belting down here!! ...But yeah, no rain around Melbourne, and doesn't look to be any on the way.

Another 'Not a Cloud in the Sky' Morning. Lucky you did buy that richmond bet back as Gaspar, Kellaway and Krak were all late withdrawals yesterday. ps. Go you BOMBERS you good things :cheers Current Bank 137.2pts (Starting Bank 100pts)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 haha...yep. Nice work by the Bombers last night... ...didn't think they had a hope of kicking 100+...let alone 150+!! One interesting thing I found out last night was that Essendon have NEVER lost at the Dome when scoring 100+!...something like 37-0 (with a draw v. the Doggies). Not exactly sure why Brisbane threw in the towel at the end of the 3rd tho...Michael went forward (for no great reason at all I wouldn't have thought), and Lucas said, thankyou very much!! Oh well, on the positive side, I knew there was a reason I'd carried Hird this long in my fantasy team :p :p Kangaroos v. Geelong under 177.5 (2.65) [saver on 178-197 (3.00)] Just looks a high total. The Kangaroos have scored 100+ in just one of their last 10, and that was against Carlton. They've also been pretty good defensively, besides last week v. the Crows who are the highest scoring team in the AFL, they haven't allowed more than 27 shots in their last 10. 4 of their last 6 have been under 177 and just one (the Cartlon game) has been over 198. They rely a lot on Thompson to kick them a score, and I'm sure he will really struggle against the Geelong backline. Last time they met, Geelong kicked 22.6 at home, which is very unlikely again here...and they held the Kanga's tpo just 10.9. No rain, but some wind is forecast which could make scoring even tougher.

[JohnZ_A]

Re: AFL Rd. 17

4leg multi: Collingwood StKilda Sydney Fremantle ------------ 10pts @ 4.42 with centrebet

Current Bank 181.4pts (Starting Bank 100pts @ Rd16) Gee those cats were shocking :wall handbaggers! :rollin

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 17 yeah they received quite a beating from Kangaroos :( I guess Freo is on a high momentum right now, might be jumping on Freo bandwagon nextweek :) since they are vsing the hawks in Subiaco ! Also on another note, next week could be a good week for us all multi punter. Freo vs Hawk : Freo (Home) Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong : Brisb.L (Home) Carlton vs. Melbourne : Melbourne Richmond vs. Western Bulldogs : Doggies seems a good multi bet nxt week, but ofc its too early to conlcude anything yet :) However good punting all this week. Lost tiny bit in the way, but oh well, life goes on !