AFL Rd. 15.

[TazaD]

Some early thoughts... Richmond v. Melbourne...Still not overly impressed with Melbourne. I keep saying Richond are crap, but they kep getting the job done. No idea! Tough (impossible!) to see Essendon troubling the Saints too much, but 43.5 points could be a lot to overcome on the MCG in what could be damp conditions. Amazingly enough, in the last 5 Essendon have av'd -1 inside 50 per game...Saints are just +1! Scoring stats very similar too, Ess 120 shots, Saints 124...But Essendon D is a huge problem, allowing a shot every 1.69 entries! Crows -46.5. Why not keep backing the best team in the comp. In their 6 home games this season they lost by 2 to the Eagles in Rd. 2, and since then have won by 77, 50, 64, 138 & 92 points! They av. 17 more inside 50's at home than their opp!!...score every 1.76 entries and allow a shot every 2.29. Don't think I've ever seen better stats than that! Hawthorn have lost their last 5 @ AAMI by 44 (Crows), 57, 81, 117 & 96 (all v. Port) They've lost 4 of their last 7 by more than this, and even at this number I think they are being given too much credit for running West Coast close last week. Crows by LOTS. Kangaroos/Brisbane is a toughy too. Don't rate the Kangas, and they being over-valued off a predictable enough win v. a flat Bulldogs...But Brisbane away from home aren't too flash either. Roe out will further weaken a shaky D. Have to take Sydney +18.5 I think. The Eagles stumble from one game to the next...It's all well and good to say it's a "good sign to win when you're playing bad", but the fact is they are sneaking in over crap teams and losing to good ones. Despite a slightly poor run of form themselves, Sydney are still a good team. And, the bigger ground will certainly help Sydney scoring...Sydney infront of most stats, even in the home/away. Swans +6 inside 50's away from home this season, Eagles just +5 at home. Swans kick a goal every 3.15 entries, Eagles 3.64. Defenses very similar, both allowing a shot every 2.11 entries. Eagles have won just 2 of their last 9 by more than 18 (14 even), and as bad as both teams' last 5 have been, the Swans still come out on top. Sydney lost by 4 in the QF last season @ Perth, and won by 4 in the GF. ...no doubt WC will be talking up the revenge factor, but I think form over-rides such things, and WC aren't going well enough to be giving 3 goals to a genuine top 6 team. Geelong should win, but they just aren't playing well enough to deserve a -30 (1.20) tag. I've got no doubt the Dogs will bounce back, but again, 30 is a lot to lay, esp. when they have failed to beat Essendon, Hawthorn and Freo by more in the last 8 weeks. Depending on the weather, I like Collingwood -20.5. I was looking forward to this line after last week's results...It's a little higher than I had hoped, but still very coverable, imo. Freo are still crap. They really struggled to over-come bottom of the table Essendon at home last week, and it was only Essendon's inexperience down back that REALLY hurt. Freo av. -5 inside 50's away from home, can't score (2.15), and can't defend! (1.88). Collingwood have had a horror last month, but Melbourne, Sydney, St. Kiolda all legit finals teams...Richmond in the rain (who keep proving to be legit anyway!!)... Freo on the road should be able to get them back on track. Freo won this meeting at the MCG last season, but were favs... ...Still not 100% convinced, but I suspect Collingwood will be a play for me.

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. thx for the insight :) Keep it coming !

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. Richmond are an underated side in my view Taza. I've definate views about this one. Melb have won five on end, a scare (mostly from Bradshaw) last week but I still feel some losing karma is due - a little like the Collingwood game where they were the hunter but this time I see them the hunted. I still make Melb a 4/5 fave but I've got my money out and ready for Richmond, for sure (did pull the trigger late, for 2.90 on them last week, fortunately). Will obviously need to watch weather to see if rain arrives early. Don't think I've had a Friday night play for about two years? Funny how it happens like that. Should feel a bit strange actually, B-lining the brandy cupboard mid last term when things get tight. :beer Yes, I hope you at least followed through and made some money from your team getting beat Taza. I'm kicking myself also. I made Kangas a 2/1 chance but managed to talk myself out of taking the 3.75 ... ALWAYS BACK VALUE :wall. ALWAYS BACK VALUE :wall:wall. Even my psychiatrist kicked me for it :spank. Obviously Kangas win was a fair bit about Bulldogs but I'm likely to play them this week. I feel they have Bris covered getting them away from QLD. Narrow wins over couple weak teams but I think team momentum graphs well for the Kangas here. You've summed it up nicely on West Coast Taza. Cox, Kerr, Chick, Nicoski missing (last time I checked), so they've got to be particuarly vulnerable. Felt Swans threw away the final LY when they went too tempo/negative too early in last. Sydney are obviously in a slump and I suspect the 5%-off Prem hangover factor may possibly be kicking in? Won't be surprised to see them touch and go for the eight. Anyway I think they are a good shot and 2.85 now, so if I see 2.90 or so I'm likely intersted. Geelong had zero on injury list but Mooney, Ablett and Rooke all left training early today after copping injuries - so may need to watch that. I'm on Dogs at 1.28 Took it Monday at sportingbet but into 1.25 now. Pies should be just about ready to get their heads in order - maybe. As you said Taza, Freo should help the cause. As I've said before, I think subconciously the players know somethings wrong but it's all self denial at present. Teams in that situation usually remain constant, unlike some clubs who will ride highs and lows through a season. -17.5/-18.5 obtainable, so I'm thinking about it also.

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. I think I'm gonna play a trifecta on my local TAB My pick : Sydney +17.5 St Kilda to win Bulldogs to win Combined its around 2.85 odds. What do you guys think ? I know Dogs and Saints are low odd, but those are just safe bets imo. And I like Tazad analysis on Swans.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. Good luck with that Uncoabis. Looks worth a try :hope. 2.48 with TAB (vic & NSW). You don't have REAL bookie accounts though? The better value is worth it in the long run. Also if you feel the odds will hold up, you can run those games into each other using the best price book, if you know what I'm saying. Would get 2.66 that way, at present. Thinking about the WCE revenge factor. Must go over some history but I think the huff and puff of revenge (GF) games more often backfires? Ash.

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. Nah I don't have one, I prefer to bet at local TAB even thou the rates aren't great. But I don't have online bookies experience so I'm a bit uneasy with doing it over the internet. Anyway any recommendation which online bookie site are good ? I guess Swans still got what it takes thou. Anyway change of plan : I'll bet on : Sydney +17.5 1.85 St Kilda to win 1.1 Bulldogs to win 1.22 Adelaide to win 1.06 so everything multiplied together : 2.63 The addition of Adelaide is because I don't think Hawthorn will have any chance against them, so I think its safe. For revenge factor, its really hard to say, but on the end of the day I think it depends more on how the player approach the game, I'm pretty sure team who are favoured can approach the game in a more confident manner.

[miguel_hamburglar]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. Hi guys, just looking at the odds for this weeks football in Australia, to take the bottom 2 teams in both the AFL and NRL to lose this week gives good value, all four are in dire straights and both leagues are at a point where every point counts for the teams going for the top 8. It is hard to see anything other than a continuation of form for all of these teams. Multied together the price is $3.16 for the following: Essendon (1w-13l)vs ST KILDA Carlton (2w-12l) vs WESTERN BULLDOGS South Sydney (1w-16l) vs MANLY SEA EAGLES Sydney Roosters (5w-11l) vs CRONULLA SHARKS

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. Great info about the NRL there :) I'm not really into NRL but then this looks delicious indeed !

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15.

Nah I don't have one' date=' I prefer to bet at local TAB even thou the rates aren't great. But I don't have online bookies experience so I'm a bit uneasy with doing it over the internet. Anyway any recommendation which online bookie site are good ?[/quote'] Australian bookmakers are strictly regulated, last I knew, so your funds are pretty safe with them. O/S books may be regulated differently but those such as Bet365 and Pinnacle are big, well established operaters who've stood the test of time. A range of online or offline funding methods means you can easily choose what suits you. No need to make big deposits. Personally I run with seventeen accounts but about four is a good number if you don't wish to get that carried away. Let me know which types of AFL bets you like and also other sports you often bet on and I should be able to recommend the most suitable books. Ash

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. I'm not a regular AFL punter. Just doing it for fun and when I know it is safe. Mostly I'm punting on soccer. Is betfair any good ? My mates told me their rates are good. Also to tell you the truth, I'm in year 12 now so I dont have any credit card or whatsoever, I'm wondering if theres any way I can join an online bookies w/o the need of opening credit card. Is that possible mate ? Cheers for the help :)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. Betfair's useful depending how it's used. Like, you can get burnt if have a bid in and then some late injury news, etc. I generally don't bother with it for AFL but useful if you like to play bookie on a market in general, such as Final-8, etc. English soccer for example would have greater liquidity so it would be better on markets like that. Pinnacle would be the best bookie for AFL although is not so diverse in different bet types (which mostly are where a lot of books make soft money, because of some crapier value in those more exotic markets). You can walk into a bank to make deposits to bookmaker accounts (check out the banking info on the bookie sites). Wouldn't surprise me if the crooks (another word for 'banks' of coarse) charge some fee for it though??

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. Charming weekend this! Richmond beaten five minutes in, in my view - fair enough. Backed Essendon 1/2-time at 2.85 - lost by 3pts. Kangaroos always look in control but manage to lose by 1pt - no killer instinct that team. Backed Sydney at 2.88, lead all night and lose by 2pts. GMAFB :wall:wall:wall

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. Ah yes, the ol' WIN v. Spread betting argument! lol!!... ...no, seriously, tough, tough, tough losses. :( I was hoping Essendon would get up...Jason Johnson streaming into an open goal with 5 minutes left to put them up by 2 goals...:@ Kangaroos, yeah, the bug-bear of modern (more-so) football, bad kicking. Could not have dominated the game any more for 3 quarters only to leave Brisbane hanging around with a sniff. And Richmond...don't get me started. I now think I've been right all along. They are crap. Rubbish. Over-rated, and just plain lucky to be in the position they now are. After a crap (but realistic imo) start, they had the Adelaide "ambush", won at Geelong but with 5 less shots, lost @ Freo, beat the Kangas with just one more inside 50, lost to Hawthorn, pumped Collingwood in the pouring rain (no biggy), beat Port but with 2 less shots and 4 les inside 50's (Port kicked 1.10 after 1/4 time!), and as you say, were beaten 5 minutes in Friday night...had 8 less shots and Melbourne hit the post 5 times. I took Adelaide -46.5 mate, so you're not alone ;) All my stats point to Port +30.5 today. Home/Away, Last 5 games, and season long all suggest that Geelong can't give this many points...but they still scare me. Wet, windy, cold conditions all help Geelong...I remember last year the same thing happened and it was pretty clear that Port just didn't want to be there. Port win more clearances, but Geelong av about 20% more contested possessions which will be crucial today you'd think. Mooney very doubtful, Ablett and Rooke both ??...I dunno. Best just to leave it I think. Will be looking towards a Dogs total....

[888]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. Thx for info Ashtee. I just opened an account with bet365.com now. Anyway, I was so scared yesterday when St. Kilda was in the brink of losing. Lucky they could pull something up to win it. Now I hope Bulldogs won't disappoint me. G'luck everyone today :)

[miguel_hamburglar]

Re: AFL Rd. 15. :wall:spank:wall My god what a week of Australian football, St Kilda did it for me by a point, were behind for the whole match, Carlton gave the Bulldogs a big scare, leading in the third quarter and then Carlton lost it (the game and the plot). South Sydney gave a yelp too before heading down by 6 and then bloody Sydney Roosters kill the whole multi by winning by 6 late in the game, :wall. Good value week for the line betting for the underdogs this week.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 15.

And Richmond...

Also, they did catch Collingwood playing right down on self belief, so I'm actually not that carried away myself about that win. I do think they're better than what they showed the other night though. To me the body language pre-game looked over the top - manufactured focus wheras Melbourne appeared genuinly focussed. That's why I felt five minutes in it was over - the writing was on the wall. I've got them to make the eight (mostly at 3.75 a few weks ago) and personally I still think they will - not up with Melb though, of coarse.