GRAND NATIONAL

[Guest Ell Ess Dee 0]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Might be irrelevant but my missus went for a part time job in our local Stanley Racing. The boss asked her if she knew anything about horse racing and she obviously replied she did not have a clue. He told her to back Southern Star and said if it didnt win he would payback her stake money...

[Guest Henrik7]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL A few more stats for you, one to back up the age thing No horse younger than 8 has won since 1940 - that rules out the McCoy horse Jurancon II. Think only about 2 horses aged 7 have completed in the last 10 years, both well down the fields. French breds - no winner since 1909. French breds are bred for speed, not 4m chases. Rules out Jurancon II again and Clan Royal. Lack of Aintree experience - believe it or not a big help recently. 14 of last 15 runners had never run over big Aintree fences before. This is backed up by the fact that only one horse since Red Rum (mid 70's) has completed the course at Aintree and then came back and won the race in subsequent years. So all the pointing to horses who have run it before, got round, and are now expected to go a bit better and win appear to be misguided. As well as the age band which is very important, remember that the last 33 winners have all won at 3m minimum. Ok, a horse could end up upsetting that trend sometime but why take the risk if it is such a strong one. Put it this way you would be on a losing run of 33 if you backed a horse every year which hadn't won at 3m minimum or a losing run of 63 if you backed horses aged under 8 every year. I am prepared to have these stats on my side rather than wait for the one year when they are broken. Aykay, look again at Bear on Board. It can't be out of the handicap if its carrying 10-1. It was handicapped at 9-12 before First Golds pull out and the 3lb weight rise. My top tip would be Bear on Board. The others I would look at and back would be Hedgehunter and Joss Naylor. I am willing to forgive their absences rather than side with something else such as a young horse or a horse carrying too much weight. Mullins and JJ are two of the shrewdest trainers for getting horses spot on for big races.

[Aykay1]

GRAND NATIONAL Absolutely right Henrik - sorry, i wasnt accounting for First Gold's absence. It makes the case for him a bit stronger now so happy days!

[The Saint]

Pricewise..... Is Le Coudray @ 33/1 with totesport & Bet Direct. Little chance of gettin on with the latter I would imagine. Also Joss Naylor I think but not 100% on that one.

[alexmac]

Re: Pricewise..... I just went for small stakes each way on The Bunny Boiler. Got 66/1 before the price dropped to 40/1! Good luck all!!!

[slick]

GRAND NATIONAL Had my first ever national winner last yr in Montys pass but cannot for the life of me pick anything this yr as the race seems so tight. Therefore gonna go for 2 place bets on horses that have been there and done it. Montys pass: place @ 5.8's Bindaree: place @ 4.7's.

[Guest Joe Mavis]

grand national Bonuce back and just in debt for me each way both nice prices.

[Guest ralphie7]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Hedgehunter @ 12/1 Gunner Welburn @ 25/1 David's Lad @ 12/1 Good Luck everyone :ok and lets hope all finish safely ralphie

[GETT1NLOTS]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL I've had in the Grand National Just in Debt £5 EW The Bunny Boiler £5 EW £1 R/FC Good Luck to all. :ok

[kompressaur]

GRAND NATIONAL Hedgehunter and Seen's Amberleigh House. Here's another pinstickers guide. This time from the Daily Record-

1 LE COUDRAY OWNED by JP McManus. Very classy and could run a decent race judged on his third to Florida Pearl at Leopardstown last time. Likely to wilt under a welter burden. F4-422 C Roche (Ire)C O'Dwyerxxx 2 MONTY'S PASS LANDEDamonster £1million gamble when romping home last year. Has run deplorably since, has too much weight and heavy rain would scupper his chances. 1-5000 J J Mangan (Ire) B J Geraghtyxxx 3 WHAT'S UP BOYS SMASHING horse, but injury prone. Was second to Bindaree two years ago but has raced only twice since. Should certainly run well if back to his best but it's a big if ! 52/F-4 P Hobbs R Johnsonxxx 7 RISK ACCESSOR ANOTHER one owned by JP McManus. Consistent and well named he's prone to the odd jumping error, which isn't good news around Aintree. 161F20 C Roche (Ire)S Durackxxx 8 DAVIDS LAD WINNER of the Irish National in 2001and was going well in Bindaree's National two years ago when falling four out. Shrewd trainer and has legitimate claims. -35626 A J Martin (Ire) T J Murphyxxx 9 BINDAREE WON the 2002 Grand National and was sixth last year when not at the top of his game. Has already won the Welsh National this season and has genuine place prospects. 6-F216 N Twiston-Davies C Llewellynxxx 13 HEDGEHUNTER THIS became one of Ireland's leading National fancies after producing an exhibition round of jumping when scoring at Gowran Park in January. Plenty of support andhas chances. 0-2431 W P Mullins (Ire) D J Caseyxxxx1 4 SHARDAM TRAINER Nigel Twiston-Davies has already saddled two winners of this race and Shardam hit top form when second to Fork Lightning at Cheltenham last month. 11P024 N Twiston-Davies T Scudamorexxx 15 TAKAGI WAS well-beaten by Hedgehunter in January but has shown improved form since when tried in first-time blinkers. Wears them again today and looks nicely treated. 435601 E O'Grady (Ire) D N Russellxxx 19 TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN HE is suited by a test of stamina and won over four miles at Newcastle. But has he a change of gears needed to win in this class? I think probably not. P2101P R C Guest H Oliverxx 20 BRAMBLE HILL DUKE LAST-minute substitute after he was called off the bench when Red Striker was pulled out yesterday. There is no way he'll pop up to be the winner. 6P3250 Miss V Williams James Daviesx 21 GUNNER WELBURN EXCELLENT fourth a year ago and his trainer says he has got the Gunner cherry ripe for battle. This one definitely has a big each way chance. 4-P1P1 A Balding A Dobbinxxxx 25 JUST IN DEBT BOUNCED back to form at Ayr recently, but this is a very different cup of tea. If you stick you cash on this he'll put you in the red today. 2035P1 M Todhunter J Cullotyx 26 EXIT TO WAVE ONCE useful though never won beyond 2m 2f and his form has slipped. Probably still capable of winning a nice race but it's unlikely to be today. -35336 P Nicholls R walshxxx 27 CLAN ROYAL LEADonMacDuff! He has already won twice over these fences and he has never failed to complete in 19 starts. Major player for the legendary JP McManus. 1411-1 Jonjo O'Neill L Cooperxxxxx 31 ARDENT SCOUT HAS a real love affair with Aintree having jumped safely around here a remarkable four times. Sue and Harvey Smith's old warrior could gallop into a place. jockeyxxx 32 BEAR ON BOARD STAYS really well and has been in cracking form in a lower grade this season. Been climbing the weights but still has each-way claims if spot on again today. R Thorntonxxx 33 LORD ATTERBURY TOP point--to-pointer but was found wanting at Cheltenham when apparently below par. Overall form leaves him plenty to find. 21-11P M PipeM Bradburnexx WOULD need a pile-up, a bolt of lightning or an earthquake to win. But you don't get acts of God at Aintree these days. Even the Mounties couldn't get this man in. F64S6P M Pipe J P Elliottx 1 LE COUDRAY OWNED by JP McManus. Very classy and could run a decent race judged on his third to Florida Pearl at Leopardstown last time. Likely to wilt under a welter burden. F4-422 C Roche (Ire)C O'Dwyerxxx 2 MONTY'S PASS LANDEDamonster £1million gamble when romping home last year. Has run deplorably since, has too much weight and heavy rain would scupper his chances. 1-5000 J J Mangan (Ire) B J Geraghtyxxx 3 WHAT'S UP BOYS SMASHING horse, but injury prone. Was second to Bindaree two years ago but has raced only twice since. Should certainly run well if back to his best but it's a big if ! 52/F-4 P Hobbs R Johnsonxxx 7 RISK ACCESSOR ANOTHER one owned by JP McManus. Consistent and well named he's prone to the odd jumping error, which isn't good news around Aintree. 161F20 C Roche (Ire)S Durackxxx 8 DAVIDS LAD WINNER of the Irish National in 2001and was going well in Bindaree's National two years ago when falling four out. Shrewd trainer and has legitimate claims. -35626 A J Martin (Ire) T J Murphyxxx 9 BINDAREE WON the 2002 Grand National and was sixth last year when not at the top of his game. Has already won the Welsh National this season and has genuine place prospects. 6-F216 N Twiston-Davies C Llewellynxxx 13 HEDGEHUNTER THIS became one of Ireland's leading National fancies after producing an exhibition round of jumping when scoring at Gowran Park in January. Plenty of support andhas chances. 0-2431 W P Mullins (Ire) D J Caseyxxxx 14 SHARDAM TRAINER Nigel Twiston-Davies has already saddled two winners of this race and Shardam hit top form when second to Fork Lightning at Cheltenham last month. 11P024 N Twiston-Davies T Scudamorexxx 15 TAKAGI WAS well-beaten by Hedgehunter in January but has shown improved form since when tried in first-time blinkers. Wears them again today and looks nicely treated. 435601 E O'Grady (Ire) D N Russellxxx 19 TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN HE is suited by a test of stamina and won over four miles at Newcastle. But has he a change of gears needed to win in this class? I think probably not. P2101P R C Guest H Oliverxx 20 BRAMBLE HILL DUKE LAST-minute substitute after he was called off the bench when Red Striker was pulled out yesterday. There is no way he'll pop up to be the winner. 6P3250 Miss V Williams James Daviesx 21 GUNNER WELBURN EXCELLENT fourth a year ago and his trainer says he has got the Gunner cherry ripe for battle. This one definitely has a big each way chance. 4-P1P1 A Balding A Dobbinxxxx 25 JUST IN DEBT BOUNCED back to form at Ayr recently, but this is a very different cup of tea. If you stick you cash on this he'll put you in the red today. 2035P1 M Todhunter J Cullotyx 26 EXIT TO WAVE ONCE useful though never won beyond 2m 2f and his form has slipped. Probably still capable of winning a nice race but it's unlikely to be today. -35336 P Nicholls R walshxxx 27 CLAN ROYAL LEADonMacDuff! He has already won twice over these fences and he has never failed to complete in 19 starts. Major player for the legendary JP McManus. 1411-1 Jonjo O'Neill L Cooperxxxxx 31 ARDENT SCOUT Form trainer jockeyHAS a real love affair with Aintree having jumped safely around here a remarkable four times. Sue and Harvey Smith's old warrior could gallop into a place. xxx 32 BEAR ON BOARD STAYS really well and has been in cracking form in a lower grade this season. Been climbing the weights but still has each-way claims if spot on again today. -P1112 A KingR Thorntonxxx 33 LORD ATTERBURY TOP point--to-pointer but was found wanting at Cheltenham when apparently below par. Overall form leaves him plenty to find. 21-11P M PipeM Bradburnexx 37 WONDER WEASEL LOOKEDapromisingtype three years ago but has been disappointing of late. Will stay the trip all right but at a snail's pace. At 11 his chance has gone.FPP030 K BaileyJ P McNamarax 38 SMARTY HEwas the runner up to Red Marauder in the 2001 National when they were the only two to finish in appalling conditions. Shadow of his former self. /05-40 M PitmanA Tinklerx 39 MONTREAL WOULD need a pile-up, a bolt of lightning or an earthquake to win. But you don't get acts of God at Aintree these days. Even the Mounties couldn't get this man in. F64S6P M Pipe J P Elliottx

[CLARETKID]

NATIONAL My picks for the big race; HEDGEHUNTER 12-1 SOUTHERN STAR 25-1 E/W ARDENT SCOUT 33-1 E/W

[Guest green00]

Re: NATIONAL Excellent thread this with some great analysis by many of u ...nothing like that from me im afraid just my pick for the race Amberleigh House EW of course good luck 2 u all :cheers

[kompressaur]

GRAND NATIONAL Nice one Seen and cheers :) Good one Green and nice to see you about mate. You must be the longest serving PL'r i say. Again thanks Seen, thats a drink i owe you :)

[Seen2001]

GRAND NATIONAL Just ONE drink? Christ, you can tell you're a Scot :lol

[GETT1NLOTS]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Seen picks three horses and I pick the two that didn't win. :lol :lol :lol Well done to Seen, Komp, Green and Slick who tipped it on messenger to me before the off. I told him it was too old. :o

[slick]

GRAND NATIONAL Yip Cheers Seen, had a couple of quid on it and tried to persuade a few of the lad on msn to get on but like Get1n said they said it was too old:lol On paper and working out horsey yrs to human yrs Get1n claimed it was 112. I added it may be like the queen mum winning the olympic 100meters but im still having some. Cracking finish can hardly speak now.

[kompressaur]

GRAND NATIONAL ....aye and a packet of crisps. If Gretna hold on i'll get 2 bags!

[Jezza]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL SEEN YOU ARE DA DADDY MAN :clap :clap :beer Jez

[Seen2001]

GRAND NATIONAL A cracking race. 2 fences out I was thinking that AMBERLEIGH HOUSE had ran a good race but was only going to finish a well-beaten 3rd or 4th, but he absolutely flew home. 1st 17 Amberleigh House (IRE) 16-1 10-10 aged 12 2nd 27 Clan Royal (FR) 10-1 JF 10-05 aged 9 3rd 33 Lord Atterbury (IRE) 40-1 10-01 aged 8 4th 2 Monty's Pass (IRE) 20-1 11-10 aged 11 Went pretty much to the stats.

[Guest DannyCash]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Yeah nice one Seen, all the hard work in compiling that post paid off nicely. Must admit I backed Amberleigh House after your message, couldn't resist AND got the forecast!! hey hey!! Cheers mate Danny

[Guest green00]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL great result had £10 win @ 24 @ betfair £5 EW @ sp 16 great pissup down pub tonight long story but one of my mates wife not V well got big C but getting better her name Amber ...must of been 20 people who backed it ...from £2 £5 10 etc one guy had £100 EW :notworthy ...lucky bstd 2K up but he must of done £500 over the bar :beer and another 2 in the toilets :p as I said before great thread and unlucky to all those who done ther dosh on what is still the BEST race in the world:smokin :ok

[Guest MYDOGDYLAN]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Well done everyone that backed the winner and to Seen for his great analysis of the race :notworthy Did'nt even get a run for my money on my selections,But i'm gonna be on Tyneandtyneagain the next time he runs on the SOFT.

[Aykay1]

GRAND NATIONAL Nice one Seen :) I thought i was looking good with Hedgehunter coming to the final fence but Amberleigh House finsished the far stronger horse. A great performance considering the horses age too ;)

[Guest]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL :clap cheers seen

[Guest davidcampbell]

... didnt even see this thread but i picked out amberliegh house after last years race and waiting for the price to drop to flippin 16 (from about 30's if i recall) before backing it. what a tube i am did manage to persuade a number of people at work to get on it. the billy hills outside our work took a doing on saturday :) yippee :unsure (sorry for AE) well done seen, excellent analysis

[manckevin]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL With the weights for the 2005 renewal recently published, perhaps time to see how much of this still applies (much of it I'd say) :)

[PAULM03]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Well I had 1st and 4th last year after reading some article in the new scientist about a group of 'boffins' coming up with some predictions, they fit in quite well with what was said in here. The 2 most important factors seem to be: 1) Has the horse completed the course before? 2) How much weight is it carrying? Does anyone know where i can find out which of the entries has completed the course before so i can get a shortlist going?

[manckevin]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/4247639.stm has all the weights, it might mean looking at each individual horse to see if they have completed before now.

[Aykay1]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Hi Paul, the crucial factor (from past results anyway) is the amount of weight the horse is carrying. Anything carrying more than 11 stone is going to find it hard. We might have to wait until closer the time to look at the weights though as they do change as and when horses are withdrawn from the race.

[Aykay1]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Oops - Forgot to mention - although the "boffins" say that horses that have completed the course before are worth bearing in mind (and they are probably correct to say this) you should really omit anything that has run before in the Grand National itself. As of last year, 91 had tried with only 3 placings and 1 win between them. The win was the aforementioned Red Marauder which won the mudbath when only 3 finished. Amberleigh House of course bucked this trend last year as well. The record is still pretty poor though. :ok