GRAND NATIONAL

[Aykay1]

Comments please......... Thank you to the RFO and a certain poster on EBA for providing these stats... Only Papillon and Red Marauder carried more than 10st 8lb's to victory in the last 10 years. Red Marauder can be considered a fluke winner. Anything that has run before omit. 91 have tried with only 3 placings and 1 win between them. The win was the aforementioned Red Marauder. No Novices have won since 1958. 88 years since a 6 year old won it. 63 years since a 7 year old won it. Best to ignore anything over 10 years old. Red Marauder is the only runner older than 10 to make the first 2 in the last 8 renewals. EVERY winner since 1970 has winning form over a minimum of 3 miles. Cheltenham winners dont win. The last 19 winners ran within 42 days for fitness purposes. 12 of the last 13 winners ran off a mark of at least 137 in a handicap during that season. I'll post my shortlist and thoughts later. Cheers

[Guest Punter66]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Very useful stats and info there Aykay, thanks, im off to see if Whats up boys fits the bill now.

[Aykay1]

GRAND NATIONAL Has too much weight and has tried and failed before im afraid punter (ableit only the runners up spot:( It has each way claims though as the course/fences wont be a problem but will do well to win carrying 11 st 6lb's

[Guest Punter66]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Yeah just realised that and shall give it a miss, I'll wait for your short list and probably pinch one out of there, i'm only risking a fiver this year, i havent had the winner in this race since Little Polvier won it :\

[Aykay1]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL I wouldnt take my shortlist as gospel - my last winner was West Tip! :lol

[Guest Punter66]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL :lol

[swampster]

GRAND NATIONAL Backed CLAN ROYAL a couple of weeks ago @ 20/1 and got JOSS NAYLOR @ 18/1 last week. My two for the big one.

[Fletco]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL I have tried applying these filters, and nothing is going to win! I had it down to Takagi and had a bet mid week, now I see it's due to run in a visor, another no-no! Has anyone found any runners that are left after filtering, or do we need to be abit flexible with some of the criteria? Regards Fletco

[Guest MYDOGDYLAN]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Heres another fact .........19 out of the last 22 winners have carried less than 11 stone.

[Guest MYDOGDYLAN]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL These are the filters i've used this year. Going on my previous post..... 1... The Horses should weigh between 11 stone and 10 stone. 2..Should have winning form of 3m 2f plus(3m 1f @cheltenham) 3..Has good Postmark and Topspeed rating(or even won with an Official Rating of 137 this seaon that has been mentioned) 4..Can handle the going on the day. Using the first 2 filters this cuts the field of 40 down to 10 contenders! These are..... Bounce Back 66/1 Clan Royal 10/1 Tyneandthyneagain 40/1 The Bunny Boiler 66/1 Juracon II 9/1 Gunner Welburn 25/1 Shardam 16/1 Hedgehunter 10/1 Southern Star 25/1 Ardent Scout 50/1 The next step appears to find out what the official going is going to be on Saturday and i'll be able to whittle a few more off those ten horses and then a final check of all the ratings of the horses that are left,hopng that the winners there. Simple as that ;)

[Guest DannyCash]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Here are my four for the big one: Joss Naylor David's Lad Clan Royal Hedgehunter Might sneak a bit on Blowing Wind @ 150-1 Betfair and cheer on some rain....

[Guest qxsad]

National specialty bets hi guys,made a bit on cheltenham on a specialty bet at betdirect (the odds they offered were way too high) and though they might muck up again Was interested in this "Horse Carrying 11st or More To Win" 9/4 .I added up all the current odds and it should be more like 6/4 but has a horse carrying >11st ever won recently also " Previous Placed Horse Winning " 7/2 Havent checked previous placed horses,anyone have a list And at sporting odds "! A grey is going to win! " 25/1 I cant seem to find out which runners are grey! But PPower and betdirect are only offering 12/1 on this. And "M.Pipe Trained Winner" 7/1 isnt Juracon trained by MPipe? Any thoughts on these lads? any worth a little bet?

[Guest DannyCash]

Re: National specialty bets Qxsad your grey's are as follows: WHAT'S UP BOYS 25-1 KINGSMARK 50-1 ROYAL ATALZA 50-1 SILVER STREAK unable to find price probably NR Danny

[Seen2001]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL There are many statistics attatched to the Grand National which are churned out year after year. But which ones are actually useful? If there is logic behind a statistic, then the chances are that it will help pinpoint the likely winner. However, without a logical explanation, a statistic could well be just coincidental. This is my reasoning.... Weight Band & Class Band These two stats go hand in hand, and are usually the first to mind when analysing this race. Regarding the Weight Band, during the last 19 years, all winners carried between 10-0 & 11-0. This can be quite easily explained logically. This is like no other race, and the effort demanded of the runners is more than your average long distance chase. The early pace is ferocious, the field size is huge, the fences are bigger and the course is a huge 2m2f oval with long, energy-sapping straights. There are no undulations ar tight turns to break up is the pace, so horses rarely get a chance for a breather. The faster the pace is, the more weight tells. Horses carrying above 11st simply don't have enough energy left at the end of the race to mount a winning challenge. Also, you have to remember that these horses are being asked to jump higher, and drop further, than in an ordinary race. No wonder big-weight carriers don't win the National. Those racing from out of the handicap have not got the class to win this event, unless the ground becomes bottomless, which is extremely unlikely this year. The Class Band stats tell us that all winners of the last 11 years were Officially Rated between 136 & 155, and every year we are told to concentrate on horses within this group. Personally, I just can't see the logic in this. If there was no ceiling on the weight band, and we were told to concentrate on horses rated 139 and above, then fair enough, logic tells us that horses rated lower than this simply do not have the class to win this race. But how can a horse have too much class for a race? A horse is either up to the task, or not. The reason there appears to be a ceiling on this band is because of the way it is tied-in with the weight band - the higher the horses rating, the higher the weight, and once above 11st, the weight prevents them from winning. So ignore the Class Band and concentrate on the Weight Band. Jumping Ability Obviously you need a competent jumper to win the National, but are the fences as severe as they are made out to be? My opinion is that the fences at Park courses such as Haydock and Kempton are just as difficult ( or even more difficult ) as the Aintree obstacles. The Aintree fences have loose birch on top and allow horses to brush through the top of them without falling. The fences at Haydock, for example, are far stiffer in structure and if a horse hits the top, it's odds-on it'll capsize. Of course I'm not suggesting that the National fences are easier to jump than your average fence at other courses, the sheer size of them cause many horses problems, and the fact that several fences have their landing side lower than the take-off side, regularly catches inexperienced chasers out. The first few fences usually have more casualties than any other fences, this is not because they are more difficult to jump, but because the field is at it's biggest in the early stages. The less room to manoeuvre a horse has, the harder it finds it to approach the fence properly - if it's stride is wrong it has no room to put itself right. Also the horses view will often be restricted, and seeing the fence late can be disasterous, not forgetting that if a rival horse falls in front of it, then the chances of having room to sidestep it are slim. The pace is furious in these early stages and there is no room for error. A lot depends on luck, no matter how efficient a jumper a horse is. I recall backing Docklands Express in the early 90's simply because he had never fallen, and he fell at the first. Party Politics, a giant of a horse who almost stepped over these fences, won the race in 1992, finished 2nd in 1995, yet fell at the third in 1996. The first six fences make up just 25% of the 30 fences, yet in 2000 43% of the 21 fallers came to grief over one of the first 6 fences. In 1999, 33% of the fallers fell before the 7th fence. In 1998 an amazing 65% of the fallers ( 11 of the 17 ) failed to get past the 6th fence. In 1994 8 of the 21 fallers ( 38% ) were out of the race by the 6th fence. So being able to jump at speed in a big field is vital, and every single one of the winners since 1991 had either won or placed in a chase with at least 13 runners. This is a vital stat and is completely logical. Fitness Red Striker is attempting to win the race on his seasonal debut - something that has not been done for over 100 years. We have to ask why this is. There are many horses which are actually better when fresh, so why do they not win the National? My view is that if a trainer has a horse he is aiming at the National, then even if the horse needs a rest between races, he would give it at least one or two outings during the season to keep the horse ticking over. An outing in early Nov followed by another in Jan, would give the horse plenty of time to recover. So any horse that arrives at the National without a run that season has almost certainly had problems, which is bad news as to win the National a horse must be at his physical peak. Also horses that are best fresh are often fragile creatures, which are unsuited to this tough event. All winners since 1991 had had their previous outing between 16 and 35 days before this race, which seems a logical stat. Previous Winners Not since Red Rum has a Grand National winner won the race again, even though plenty have tried. Why is this? Many races throughout the year are won by a horse that won the race the previous season, so why not this one. After all, the horse is proven over the fences, stays the trip, acts in a big field, likes the course, and can win in the Spring. One explanation is the weight, a National winner will be asked to carry a fair amount of extra weight the following year, and this often proves their downfall. My personal opinion of this is that the race is such a test for a horse, to win it takes so much out of a horse, that they are never really the same again. Trip All winners since 1991 had won a chase over at least 3m. The misconception that a 2m 4f horse can outspeed the plodders causes many horses to be entered each year which have no chance of staying the trip. Before the fences were modified, the pace was slower as the jockeys were more careful over the fences, and this enabled the 2m 4f horses to hunt up the leaders before being unleashed on the run-in and using their pace to win the race. But nowadays the pace finds these horses out year after year. Age Between 8 and 12 is the favoured age band, but 6 of the last 8 winners were aged either 9 or 10. 7yo's lack the experience and 13yo's+ are simply to old to be competitive in this extreme test. Previous Runs All but one of the winners since 1991 had won a race worth at least £18,000. The one that hadn't, Party Politics, had finished 2nd twice in events worth £23,000 and £37,000. Experience Any horse competing here as a novice or in only their second season, is extremely unlikely to win. All winners bar BINDAREE since 1991 were in their 3rd or 4th season chasing. Time Of Year All winners since 1991 had won previously in either January, February, March or April. Now to find the winner :)

[Aykay1]

GRAND NATIONAL Ground news...could prove vital for some horses....... GROUND no firmer than officially "good" is on the cards for Aintree on Friday, with rain expected to have hit the track overnight. “We’re going to have a dry evening but there is rain forecast from 9pm onwards, with between 4mm and 5mm expected,” clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch said on Thursday. “The rain is due to clear in the early hours with the possibility of the odd shower on Friday afternoon. Tomorrow night is set to be dry with early showers on Saturday morning, clearing up by lunchtime. “The going remains good and we have no plans to water.” Jockeys who rode in the Fox Hunters’ Chase were almost unanimous in declaring the ground good on the National course, which was being used for the first time since last November. Philip Hall, who rode fourth-placed Satchmo, said: It is good ground, with no patches. It is in excellent nick all the way round.” Tom Greenall, on board runner-up Sikander A Azam, said: It is just on the slow side of good all the way round - it is brilliant ground.”

[Seen2001]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Horses set to carry between 10-1 and 11-0.... ALCAPONE - won't stay PUNTAL - won't stay SOUTHERN STAR - been off track too long HEDGEHUNTER - been off track too long SHARDAM - too young TAKAGI - been off track too long JOSS NAYLOR - been off track too long AMBERLEIGH HOUSE - ***** THE BUNNY BOILER - ***** TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN - novice RED STRIKER - been off track too long GUNNER WELBURN - been off track too long KELAMI - too young JURANCON II - too young ROYAL ATALZA - too young JUST IN DEBT - ***** EXIT TO WAVE - yet to win a race worth 18K+ CLAN ROYAL - been off track too long AKARUS - been off track too long SPOT THE DIFFERENCE - yet to win a race worth 18K+ BOUNCE BACK - been off track too long ARDENT SCOUT - been off track too long BEAR ON BOARD- yet to win a race worth 18K+ LORD ATTERBURY- yet to win a race worth 18K+ MANTLES PRINCE - been off track too long BLOWING WIND - been off track too long The shortlist is.... AMBERLEIGH HOUSE 21.0 JUST IN DEBT 60.0 THE BUNNY BOILER 100.0

[Guest Punter66]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Again some fantastic stats and write ups there chaps. Just wondering, are there any pointers towards the jockeys?

[Guest DannyCash]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Excellent analysis there Seen, I wish I'd read it before I'd put my money down!! My 4 contenders all have a question mark over them, in particular 'recent run' statistics. Of my 4 picks only David's Lad has run recently but he carries too much weight and has failed to win in any of the first 4 months this year. I think that the Pipe horse Jurancon II fits the bill! It carries 10-7, has won a chase with more than 13 runners (Haydock, good ground), has had a recent run and has WON this year. I guess his age (7) and lack of experience will count against him though. I can also make a case for Bear on Board using your filters. Good luck with your final section/s...

[Aykay1]

GRAND NATIONAL Bear on Board is the one that stands out at the moment for me is about 14/1 at the mo.. I also like Jurancon II but it fails on a couple of the historical stats - ill post my final thoughts tomorrow...

[Guest Punter66]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL I'm going to go with Davids Lad One of the Fav's last year, in touch, headway, close 3rd when fell at the 20th. Has had a few warm up races around 2 1/2 mile so far this year and horse and jockey know each other well. Doesn't make the weight criteria but is not far over. Priced around 14's at the Mo' so i'll leave it till closer the time. Last years National www.sportinglife.com/raci...ntree_1545

[Guest MYDOGDYLAN]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Owing to the weights going up for the final 40 runners that brought in 8 more to my list making 18 in all. So using Seens stats about the horses Days since last run and to have won a race of 18K,iv'e whittled my list down to 5. Shardam 138 Jurancon II 136 Tyneandthyneagain 146 Montreal 118 Luzcadou 119 The numbers after the horses name was the Official Rating for its last run. Just waiting for the officical going now to find the winner from those 5 ;)

[Aykay1]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Just to back up the theory that 11 stone is too much weight to carry to win a national, here are the first 10 home from last years running: Monty´s Pass 10-7 Supreme Glory 10-2 Amberleigh House 10-4 Gunner Welburn 10-2 Montifault 10-4 Bindaree 10-11 Carbury Cross 10-12 Blowing Wind 10-9 Tremallt 10-2 Behrajan 11-12 Quite revealing eh?

[Aykay1]

GRAND NATIONAL On the subject of weight... 2002 - of the 11 that finished, 9 carried 10 stone 8lb's or less. 2003 (above)- 12/14 carried 10 stone 9lb's or less. The first five home carried less than 10 stone 8 lb's

[Guest Punter66]

re Those stats have put me off Davids lad now Aykay, Its back to the drawing board for me. Trainers must be aware of these stats, makes you wonder why they bother running their horses if they get to much weight??

[Aykay1]

GRAND NATIONAL Someone has to carry the top weight though so there will always be horses at the top of the handicap carrying unfortunately large lumps of weight ;) Davids Lad still has an each way chance though mate so dont be put off all together

[GETT1NLOTS]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Can't wait to watch it tomorrow. I've always loved this race - even as a kid. I actually have been lucky picking the winners over the years too. Aldaniti, West Tip, Party Politics, Bindaree are four I backed.... Anyway excellent contributions from Akay, Seen and MyDogDylan. :ok :ok Thanks chaps I'll log on tomorrow with my paper and cup of tea and read it all again before putting on my bets.

[Aykay1]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Right, my selection went out the window when TIMBERA was withdrawn earlier in the week suffering from a cough. The horse had the perfect profile so it was a shame that happened. Anyhow...... I have eliminated 6 & 7 year olds and 11 & 12 year olds, anything with no winning form over 3 miles and novice chasers. This narrowed the field down to 11 horses: JOSS NAYLOR: Firstly his 126 day break worries me. Also, all its best form has come on soft ground which he is unlikely to get tomorrow. Here are the ground conditions for his 7 career wins to date: G/S, G/S, SFT, SFT, SFT, SFT, SFT. He has disappointed in his two most recent runs on good ground. TAKAGI: Again, his best form is on Soft ground. Wears headgear which is a concern and has yet to win a chase in a big field. Not without a chance of a placing but i dont think he'll be winning. THE BUNNY BOILER: Although this one has the right profile, his best form is also on softish ground. He has shown no sort of form this season and seems to have peaked in 2002. Not without a chance but i wont be backing it. JUST IN DEBT: Another one with the right profile for this race and is a big price aswell. There is a question mark about its stamina in my opinion - its only win over 3 miles was in a 4 runner race. He will however like the ground. There are worse 40/1 shots about. CLAN ROYAL: He has performed in big fields, over the course and over the fences. His record over these fences is 2/2 - so far so good. The break of 132 days is a concern and im not convinced he will stay 4 miles + , even on the firmer ground he likes. I'd want a double figure price if i was backing this and probably will not get it so i'll give Clan Royal a swerve. BOUNCE BACK: Off the course for 98 days - hasnt been seen since pulling up in the Welsh Grand National. Basically he has little form since winning at Sandown in April 2002. One bonus is that he seems to peak in April and should stay the trip well. Ground no problem so a potential each way bet at a big price. BEAR ON BOARD: Out of the handicap which isnt ideal but only by 1 lb so not a total write off. Is guaranteed to stay having won over 4miles 1 furlong at Cheltenham on similar ground to what he will encounter at Aintree. Although he doesnt meet Seen's criteria of having won a race worth £18k+, he was 2nd to JURANCON in a race worth £69k, beating some useful types in the process so thats good enough for me. A slight concern is that most of its running has been done in small fields but he has won a 15 runner race. LORD ATTERBURY: First time out of hunter chasing. Will like the ground and will get the trip but disappointed last time and I cant see him being good enough to take this. Out of the handicap aswell. MANTLES PRINCE: Out of the handicap, has tried to win this race before but unseated his rider after 3 or 4 blunders. Was trailing at the time. Another one who wont be good enough. HEDGEHUNTER: Although this ones winning form is on soft or heavy ground, he has twice run well on a good surface finishing 2nd/18 at Punchestown and then disputing the lead at Cheltenham two fences out in the hunters chase 2003 before blundering and ruining its chance. To me, he clearly goes on good ground. I think i actually prefer good ground for this horse over a long distance as over 3miles 3f and 3miles 6 furlongs at Chepstow and Newbury, he didnt seem to last home in the softer ground but didnt seem to be having any problems over 4miles at Cheltenham on good ground. HEDGEHUNTER won easily last time out and was 3rd in the Welsh National. The break of 72 days is a bit off putting and i have a nagging doubt that his weight of 10 stone 12lb's may be a touch too much to deny him the win. Nevertheless he has very strong claims i think. Here's one who fails on the age stats but whom i think deserves a mention anyway........ JURANCON II: This horse has everything going for him tomorrow. Will undoubtedly get the trip and the good ground is fine too. The nagging doubt is his age - at 7 years old he should really be too young to win this. I was verging on ignoring this factor and having a bet regardless but Martin Pipe ran a horse called IRIS BLEU in this last year who had a very similar profile to JURANCON II. IRIS BLEU was also 7 years old, went on the ground and got the trip, he was fancied by many and went off 8/1. IRIS's GIFT blundered his way round the course and 3 mistakes later he was pulled up lame. He hasnt raced since and thats enough to put me off. The conclusion is that JURANCON has each way claims but probably won't be winning. So who am i betting then? In the absence of TIMBERA, im going to split my stakes between HEDGEHUNTER and BEAR ON BOARD with a speculative each way bet on BOUNCE BACK who is too big at 66/1 with Hills. (33/1 at Coral) Selections with 10 points to stake: HEDGEHUNTER - 4pts win @ 12/1 Coral BEAR ON BOARD - 4pts win @ 14/1 Coral BOUNCE BACK 1pt each way @ 66/1 William Hills Good luck everyone i think we're going to need it. ;)

[Seen2001]

GRAND NATIONAL An excellent analysis Aykay - thanks for taking the time to share it with us. I'll post my thoughts later when I've had a good look at this.

[Guest MYDOGDYLAN]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL Evening all,well out of the 5 horses i'm left with............. LUZCADOU... PU and BD in his last 2 races and i don't think he will last the trip so not one bit of confidence to back this one. MONTREAL...Another that won't last the trip and was pulled up last out. SHARDAM..sound claims this one if the ground stays good,tho only a 7 year old i feel he will give me a run for my money. JURANCON II ..like Shardam another progressive 7 year old who jumps well and should stay the trip. TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN..Really fancy this one if the ground changes to SOFT and i will back it to win if it P*sses down tonight and in the morning. My bet for tomorrow will be. SHARDAM 16/1 5pts e/w JURANCON II 10/1 5pts e/w TYNEANDTYNEAGAIN 40/1 2pts e/w (if ground is soft 10pts e/w Good luck what ever you all decide to pick.

[Guest Sezman]

Re: GRAND NATIONAL I'm on two of Seens as well Amberleigh House and The Bunny Boiler... and Monty's pass cos I got it last year:beer