AFL Rd. 11.

[TazaD]

...Richmond v. Kangaroos is as close as a game you'll come across, imo. Kangas slight edge in the midfield and defense, Richmond with a slight edge in scoring and coaching/tactics. I've been a bit down on the Kangas so far, but they have played some tough games...Had 2 more inside 50's and 3 more shots than Sydney last week...Kept close to St. Kilda (just 3 less inside 50's), had the same amount of shots @ Freo, beaten by Adelaide, Melbourne, West Coast and Collingwood. Tough run! Richmond are hiding a lot of holes with smoke and mirrors... ...anyway, the upshot of all that is that if I can get 2.20 for the 'Roos I think I'll take it. (Should be a decent chance on Betfair) I like St. Kilda to keep it close @ Sydney (+18.5) Sydney have shown a few signs in the last 2 weeks that they have hit a bit of a flat spot. Just 4 more inside 50's and 5 more shots v. Hawthorn, but some good (and bad!) kicking made the score look a lot worse than the game actually was...and like I just mentioned, 2 less inside 50's and 3 less shots v. the Kangas. The Saints had 11 more inside 50's than Melbourne last week!!!...Their scoring has been down all season, but what killed them was Melbourne scoring every 1.57 entries!..with Neitz kicking 8. Now, of course Sydney have Hall that could quite easily do the same thing, but the thing that will work in their favour this week is the smaller SCG, which will make it easier for their midfield to get back and fill up space. Interesting to note that in 5 games at the smaller Dome they have allowed a shot every 2.09, 1.88 (Brisbane), 2.67, 2.36 & 2.76 entries... ...outdoors on bigger grounds they have allowed 1.96 (Perth), 1.81 (AAMI), 1.75 (YP), 2.29 (Carlton, MCG) and 1.57 (MCG)... ...so the smaller ground clearly helps them protect their back 6. Sydney are just 1-2 on their home ground so far, and interestingly, the stats indicate that the smaller ground may be hurting their scoring also. I really think the Saints are a genuine chance here, and 3 goals looks a generous start to me. Originally liked Hawthorn +30.5...I think their last 2 weeks have been stronger than results have shown...Plus obviously, Port belting 2 rubbish teams means nothing (Can't believe I talked up Carlton's defense last week, only to see Port blokes run forward on their own for the whole first half!! :wall )... ...but the last 3 years have all been massive wins to Port (@ AAMI), and Croad looks to have re-injured his wrist. Don't like the way the Hawks give up in games either...might leave it alone. Geelong/Essendon? Not a hope! Essendon can't score, but they refuse to flood. Geelong can't score, and now have lost Harley...Couldn't play a side or total. Adelaide looked good at 1.60, but looks like I've missed that now. Don't really like hte way it sets up, with the Crows off two big wins against very bad teams...I know they are a good team, but they have had a relatively easy run of late. The one result that does stand out is their win over Melbourne on the Gold Coast by just 5 points. Brisbane were better than I expected last week, and they could be a sneaky chance to keep this one close...don't think I could take the Crows to cover 2 goals. Dogs don't look like 1.50 chances to me either...hoping for another under in this one. Freo can't score, so hoping for more of a Bulldogs total, with not as much regard to their opp...like last week...which although didn't win, it was bloody close at a very good price (there's that V word again! :lol ) Which leaves Monday, and Collingwood are better in every area I can see. 1.75 looks a good price for the 'Pies...should be able to cover the 6.5 imo. oh...West Coast...-49.5...You'd have to think so, yeah?? :loon :drums

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Event Brisbane v Adelaide Selection Adelaide Strength 7/10 Date 10/06/2006 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.62 (Back) Reasoning Too big a price here on the superior team. Brisbane more than met their match last week after three big wins over poor/moderate opponents. They have another top class opponent this week, albeit at home. The price is maybe a little generous due to Brisbane’s good record over Adelaide (including a Rd-8 ’05 away win in the wet), which is always useful info if we can place a bet on past games, but these days Adelaide are a far more advanced unit than in the past. Brisbane have also been up for a few weeks, so I like to consider that at some point it will be due for a little edge to be off their form. My price; Adelaide 4/9

Don't really like hte way it sets up, with the Crows off two big wins against very bad teams...

Yeah it can be a worry Taza, but was only three games back that they fell asleep to Richmond, so I'm happy enough to chance them at the odds. Price didn't last long with an arb available which I used to build better than the 1.62 (hope you spotted it in time Taza) Took 1.45 Swans early in the week. Think they had an inevitable slip up LW off some great form but in the end showed how good. Are the better side IMV. Some interesting stats on the Saints defensive trends their Taza. Chance of a damp track also. Melb seemed to be their own worst enemy last week, opting for this negative tempo stuff when Saints got a bit of a run on. I lost on the Sydney game also LW Taza, taking Roos at 2.80 half time. So if you go ahead, hopefully we both get payed on this one. :ok I actually like the work Richmond are doing but it could be ripe for them to be off song here, after all the good form. I don't know whether I'm that keen about the 2.20 Kangas though. Too much poor form, and all this tempo footy some teams are wanting to play is bringing them unstuck IMO. Invites the opposition to steal all the attacking/positive energy. Kangas seem too negative and are perhaps potentially better than they look but will they change that this week is the big question for me. Havn't ruled this game out yet. Agree, WBD get another winning chance here but are bit short. So Fremantle is a possibility for me and Carlton are that consistantly bad that I havn't ruled out the 'cap play either.

and Croad looks to have re-injured his wrist.

Jacobs missing also, and Guerra, usually means they're left with a bunch of kids to run the defence, so will be interesting what could happen.

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Don't like the Saints this week. Geez will the gods give us a break!! :S Geelong with a bit of a margin looks good for me. I think they will come out and smash Essendon up. Wonder what the Eagles margin will be.... -140? Mat.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. -48.5 ;) Oh, and mate...don't ever mention injury Gods within earshot of a Bulldogs supporter...

[robby]

Re: AFL Rd. 11.

-48.5 ;) Oh, and mate...don't ever mention injury Gods within earshot of a Bulldogs supporter...

:rollin

[robby]

Re: AFL Rd. 11.

Don't like the Saints this week. Geez will the gods give us a break!! :S Geelong with a bit of a margin looks good for me. I think they will come out and smash Essendon up. Wonder what the Eagles margin will be.... -140? Mat.

On the Geelong game I keep finding my lean heading the other way. I've had more success than not fading teams that implode the previous week in various leagues. Essendon, while losing started with several losses that were very close, the past three could be attributed to the fact of giving up. It's clear that jobs are on the line, could add a spark and tends to make me think the real chances are closer to 40% on this one, and 4.2 currently - 4.5ish by game time will carry some value. Essendon/Geelong on the HT/FT @ 7.4 has some potential.:\ West Coast on the cap, whatever it is looks good. After last week's scare I think that they will come back hard. (Much like the Crows has done). Another cap I like is the Crows. I really think the Richmond game alone can keep them interested (read: not in cruise mode) for the next 3/4 rounds. Each week since they've came out with some serious intent. I can't see them all of the sudden losing that here. Strong leans on Syd, Ade, Port and Freo to take the first quarter.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Price didn't last long with an arb available which I used to build better than the 1.62 (hope you spotted it in time Taza) Nope!...But luckily (well, hopefully luckily!!) I spotted 365 with -18.5 while Centrebet steadily rose to -27.5!! Brown almost certainly out. Bradshaw very doubtful. Charman out. Ouch. Decided to go with the Kangaroos +6.5...went a bit soft, taking the h'cap, but I can't see this one being anything but close! I noticed you said about the negative game style, but I'm leaning towards them actually being quite good defensively. They have only allowed 26 shots once since rd. 2, the rest 25 or less...and look at the run they've had; Coll, Crows both very good defensively. They 'broke out' with 26 and 27 shots against Melbourne and Hawthorn. Adelaide, Freo @ Subi and Saints in the dome all very strong defensively...and Sydney!, who are just about the best in the business, they had 28 shots. Richmond are terrible defensively, and I realy have to think that the Kanga's will get more shots on the board...Just hopefully they can get the majority of them on-line!! So yeah, in the end gone with Saints +19.5, Kangas +6.5 and Crows -18.5...and I dare say I'll get suckered into West Coast -49.5 too. Collingwood injury list scaring me off them, and apparently their has been a big 'flu bug' go around the Dogs camp, so the Dockrs could be a show?...Still like the under at a decent number. Not even going to watch tonight! :D

[robby]

Re: AFL Rd. 11.

Brown almost certainly out. Bradshaw very doubtful. Charman out. Ouch.

No kidding. Excluding the Richmond game, the Crows haven't won by less than 50 since rd 4. With Brissie being hurt on the foward line I can't see them matching blow for blow. Adelaide -39.5 was 2.86 tonight (winning margin, not line) and I've jumped on it pretty solid. Also pushed on the ht/ft - crows/crows @ 1.6 as well. (yeah, I missed the early prices). Think on the Roos game is that I'm going to back them pretty strong going into the match and will arb out when they get ahead by 10-15 pts. Richmond blow in the first quarter (only beating the crows and a sleeping eagles). There should be plenty of opportunities for that to happen. If the Tigers do by chance get in a solid run, there should still be value in them to buy myself out of it. When they're winning it's not by much. Roos at QT is another bet I'll be making. I reckon no matter where you put your money on Sydney it's almost like a free return. They've been great on QT results lately, the ht/ft shouldn't be an issue, the line shouldn't be an issue either. I'm glad that the roos really gave them a scare last week, they should be wide awake in this one.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Just hopefully they can get the majority of them on-line!! 4.9 at HT...Just ****ing magic!! :@

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Just grabbed WC -50.5 ...it jumped to 53.5 @ Centrebet this afternoon. Not sure if there's any team news, or people just realising it's still about 15 points of where it ought to be! :D

[robby]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Well, that was an up and down day if I've ever had one... Roos/Tigers game went as expected, roos on the quarter time, richmond in early trouble pushed themselves above evens to arb out, 'supporter' bet came through. Then there was the weather... I knew it had rained in Sydney, but I had no clue it was that much! Lost both quarter times between the night games since they're suspended on start. Lay'ed out of most of the liability on the others. Then I went silly... Sydney just kicked the goal to get within a goal of winning with a bit of time and the price stayed at 3 for the win. Considering how last week went, I went back in.. Hall shoulda had that free;) Full credit to the Saints though, they withstood some serious attacking in the second half of the 4th. Hopefully tomorrow has some more lovin', and less rain!

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. Bulldogs v. Freo under 191.5 (2.70) 192-211 (3.00) as saver Got the high number I was after. Dogs still yet to allow 100 in the Dome this season, av. just 92 ppg. Freo have only scored 100+ in 3 games this season, against the 3 worst defensive teams in the AFL (Carlton, Port and Richmond). Only one of Freos games so far has gone over 211 (@ Brisbane, who play a very free flowing game, and have a reasonably poor defense), and 8 of 10 have been under 191.