Against the Market - Tennis Dogs

[robby]

I tend to play the outright market in the slams, but since this one doesn't have much value, I'm going to try and fluke some dough this way. Throughout the clay season there have been quite a few underdog wins. Womens and Mens singles. I'm curious to see if there is any value in backing dogs the entire way and with 189 matches (w/o inj) to be played in singles, it could be fun. All prices will be Betfair and will be bought at the best price. There isn't any limit on amount on offer in the market for this. I'll try to get prices as close to the start time as possible, if there's a chance for a market correction, I'll get in earlier. Considering the serious time zone difference (in Australia) I may buy in earlier for the later matches. I'll chart all dogs and I'm also curious on just between 3/1 and 10/1 - a serious dog and not on the wrong side of evens, but not a silly mismatch either. Starting bank 200pts and 1pt plays all the way through. Update tomorrow for the first set of rd 1 matches.:ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs :eek :eek Best of luck robby:ok

[davidmphill]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs Very interesting robby!! Good luck

[robby]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs With all of the short odds, I'm a little worried about market correction. So I'll get on these early and see where they end up. Round 1 Day 1 Starting Bank 200pts 1. Daniilidou over Sugiyama @ 2.2 2. Zib over Robredo @ 16.5 3. Zvonereva over Safina @ 4.5 4. Carlsen over Henman @ 7.2 5. Hartfield over Federer @ 60 6. Vedy over Bartoli @ 4.6 7. Parmentier over Benesova @ 2.82 8. Shaughnesy over Mauresmo @ 15 9. Wawrinka over Nalbandian @ 5.5 10. Santoro over Acasuso @ 4.2 11. Marin over Moya @ 11.5 12. Washington over Sharapova @ 10.5 I think that's all of them Current Bank (P/L) : 188pts (+0) Total staked : 12pts W/L (Strike) : Yield : All of these in a one point accy will put you away for life. I'll settle for 2

[robby]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs Cheers guys!:ok Sad I have more interest in this than the actual tourny, but with all of the short prices, it's not like there is much value around ;) Thought about doing this during the transition from hard to clay seasons and held out. May do it between clay and grass (where the market follows names more than surface form).

[davidmphill]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs Be nice if Hartfield can spring a shock for you!:loon

[matjnewton]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs It's hard to believe that someone in a one-on-one contest could be paying 60 bucks!! Hartfield must suck!! Mat.

[robby]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs

1. Daniilidou over Sugiyama @ 2.2 :wall 7-6(1) 0-6 3-6 2. Zib over Robredo @ 16.5 :wall 4-6 2-6 2-6 3. Zvonereva over Safina @ 4.5 :wall 3-6 5-7 4. Carlsen over Henman @ 7.2 :wall 3-6 4-6 6-4 4-6 5. Hartfield over Federer @ 60 :wall 5-7 6(2)-7 2-6 6. Vedy over Bartoli @ 4.6:wall 0-6 1-6 7. Parmentier over Benesova @ 2.82:wall 5-7 3-6 8. Shaughnesy over Mauresmo @ 15 :wall 4-6 4-6 9. Wawrinka over Nalbandian @ 5.5 :wall 2-6 6(5)-7 4-6 10. Santoro over Acasuso @ 4.2 still in play 11. Marin over Moya @ 11.5 :wall 5-7 3-6 3-6 12. Washington over Sharapova @ 10.5 :wall 2-6 7-5 5-7

:unsure

[robby]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs Starting Bank 188pts 13. Del Potro over Ferrero @ 4.5 14. Dlouhy over Vliegen @ 5.4 15. Gimelstob over Falla @ 2.84 16. Karanusic over Gaudio @ 6.4 17. Malisse over Massu @ 2.74 18. Muller over Mirnyi @ 2.38 19. Bozoljac over Pashanski @ 2.08 20. Korolev over Seppi @ 2.2 21. Tuksar over Youzhny @ 2.5 22. Gicquel over Di Mauro 2.4 23. Pavel over Grosjean @ 3.65 24. Llodra over Stepanek @ 5.7 25. Melzer over Kiefer @ 2.58 26. Tursunov over Novak @ 2.68 27. Pless over Volandri @ 5.7 28. Saretta over Starace @ 2.44 29. Marach over Kohlschreiber @ 2.4 30. Arthurs over Almagro @ 11.00 31. Lopez over Berdych @ 3.8 32. Srichaphan over Blake @ 8.2 33. Rusedski over Capdeville @ 2.52 34. Wang over Gasquet @ 6.4 35. Moodie over Lapentti @ 3.15 36. Spadea v Davydenko @ 10.5 37. Goldstein over V Arguel @ 2.86 38. Healey over Ancic @ 13 39. Sang over Bracciali @ 2.22 40. Kim over Silva @ 2.08 41. Mayer over Galvani @ 2 42. Ginepri over Montanes @ 2.54 43. Sluiter over Nieminen @ 7 44. Soderling over Nadal @ 50 45. Nakamura over Castano @ 3.5 46. C - Aloro over Gajdosova @ 2.6 47. Krajicek over Schnyder @ 3.9 48. Pous Tio over Jankovic @ 3.15 49. Rodinova over Dushevina @ 5.1 50. Bondarenk over Schiavone @ 8 51. Lukhovtseva over Sprem @ 2.02 52. Foretz over Dechy @ 3.15 53. Molik over Serra Zanetti @ 2.22 54. Vesnina over Peng @ 2.74 55. Perianu over Safarova @ 4.5 56. Brianti over Rezai @ 2.52 57. Srebotnik over Smashnova @ 1.97 58. Sromova v Vinci @ 2.68 59. Vierin v Muller @ 3.75 60. Vento over Arvidsson @ 3.05 61. Fedossova over Laine @ 2.34 62. Harkleroad over Kostanic @ 2.86 63. King over Kutuzova @ 2.2 64. Frazier over Li @ 8 65. Pichet over Flipkens both at 1.4, will check later otherwise no play 66. Razzano over Clijsters @ 20 67. Yuan over Vakulenko @ 2.44 68. Birnero over Chakvetadze @ 3.45 69. M Granados over D Oliva @ 2.16 70. Sucha over Dementieva @ 7.6 71. Domachowska over Vaidiso @ 5.2 72. Granville over Kuznetsov @ 17.5 73. Mattek over Penneta @ 8 74. P Santonja over Santange @ 4.2 75. Sun over Bychkova @ 2.46 76. Bammer over V Williams @ 12 Current Bank (P/L) : 124pts (-12) Total staked : 76pts W/L (Strike) : 0/12 (0%) Yield : why bother? :) Some more serious dogs in this one, so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. I've been thinking about stopping when we reach the QF (if there is a bank left:lol). Will decide that later. For the record, Hartfield played better as a 60/1 than some of the 4/1. Not like it was a tight 5 setter, but Fed didn't walk away with 6-1s either.

[matjnewton]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs Geez robby that's gonna keep you until Christmas.

[robby]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs

Starting Bank 188pts 13. Del Potro over Ferrero @ 4.5 :wall 14. Dlouhy over Vliegen @ 5.4 :clap 15. Gimelstob over Falla @ 2.84 :wall 4-6 4-6 2-6 16. Karanusic over Gaudio @ 6.4 :wall 2-6 2-6 2-6 17. Malisse over Massu @ 2.74 :wall 18. Muller over Mirnyi @ 2.38 :wall 3-6 1-6 6(3)-7 19. Bozoljac over Pashanski @ 2.08:clap 6-4 6-3 6-4 20. Korolev over Seppi @ 2.2 :clap 21. Tuksar over Youzhny @ 2.5 :wall 3-6 3-6 6-3 0-6 22. Gicquel over Di Mauro 2.4 :clap 23. Pavel over Grosjean @ 3.65 :wall 24. Llodra over Stepanek @ 5.7 :wall 25. Melzer over Kiefer @ 2.58 26. Tursunov over Novak @ 2.68 :clap 27. Pless over Volandri @ 5.7 :wall 28. Saretta over Starace @ 2.44 :clap 29. Marach over Kohlschreiber @ 2.4 :wall 30. Arthurs over Almagro @ 11.00 :wall 31. Lopez over Berdych @ 3.8 :wall 32. Srichaphan over Blake @ 8.2 :wall 33. Rusedski over Capdeville @ 2.52 :wall 34. Wang over Gasquet @ 6.4:wall 35. Moodie over Lapentti @ 3.15 :wall 36. Spadea v Davydenko @ 10.5 :wall 37. Goldstein over V Arguel @ 2.86 :wall 38. Healey over Ancic @ 13 :wall 39. Sang over Bracciali @ 2.22 40. Kim over Silva @ 2.08 :clap 41. Mayer over Galvani @ 2 :wall 42. Ginepri over Montanes @ 2.54 43. Sluiter over Nieminen @ 7 :clap 44. Soderling over Nadal @ 50:wall 45. Nakamura over Castano @ 3.5 :wall 6-4 3-6 1-6 46. C - Aloro over Gajdosova @ 2.6 :wall 2-6 7-5 3-6 47. Krajicek over Schnyder @ 3.9 :wall 1-6 2-6 48. Pous Tio over Jankovic @ 3.15 :wall 5-7 4-6 49. Rodinova over Dushevina @ 5.1 :wall 3-6 2-6 50. Bondarenk over Schiavone @ 8 :wall3-6 4-6 51. Lukhovtseva over Sprem @ 2.02 :wall 1-6 1-6 52. Foretz over Dechy @ 3.15 :wall 53. Molik over Serra Zanetti @ 2.22 :clap 54. Vesnina over Peng @ 2.74 :wall 55. Perianu over Safarova @ 4.5 :clap 56. Brianti over Rezai @ 2.52 :wall 57. Srebotnik over Smashnova @ 1.97 :clap 58. Sromova v Vinci @ 2.68 :clap 59. Vierin v Muller @ 3.75 :wall 60. Vento over Arvidsson @ 3.05 :wall 61. Fedossova over Laine @ 2.34 :wall 62. Harkleroad over Kostanic @ 2.86 :clap 63. King over Kutuzova @ 2.2 :wall 64. Frazier over Li @ 8 :wall 65. Pichet over Flipkens both at 1.4, will check later otherwise no play 66. Razzano over Clijsters @ 20 :wall 67. Yuan over Vakulenko @ 2.44 :wall 68. Birnero over Chakvetadze @ 3.45 :wall 69. M Granados over D Oliva @ 2.16 :clap 70. Sucha over Dementieva @ 7.6 :wall 71. Domachowska over Vaidiso @ 5.2 :wall 72. Granville over Kuznetsov @ 17.5 :wall 73. Mattek over Penneta @ 8 :wall 74. P Santonja over Santange @ 4.2 :wall 75. Sun over Bychkova @ 2.46 :clap 76. Bammer over V Williams @ 12 :wall

:unsure

[robby]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs Well, today was closer to what I thought, a slow drip out of the pot, but not a huge loss. Strike rate is really low (sub 20%) but I'm only 30 points down for the tourny so far. Considering 76 bets have been placed, could have been a lot worse. And yeah!, she's not exactly the easiest 'system' to monitor in posts, can't wait til we're out of the first couple of rounds. Droping the set results and formatting due to time constraints. :zzz 77. Portas over Baggie @ 2.64 78. Faurel over Rochis @ 6.8 79. Shu over Hass @ 3.45 80. Vanek over Mahut @ 2.04 81. Benn over Tips @ 2.04 82. Chela over 'dasco @ 2.40 83. Waske over Vicente @ 2.76 84. Hernandez over Simon @ 3.8 85. Patience over Ivo @ 2.36 86. Norman over Massa @ 2.42 87. Van Gem over Monaco @ 3.45 88. Murray over Monfils @ 2.36 89. Roitman over Hrbaty @ 3.4 90. Ascione over RHH @ 3.35 91. Berlocq over Ljub @ 7.2 92. ToJo over Rochus @ 2.04 93. Horna over Djokovic @ 2.08 94. Sabau over Kindlmann @ 2.28 95. Phau over Mathieu @ 4.7 96. Montcourt over Daniel @ 2.6 97. Vik over Serra @ 2.56 98. Bjorkman over Chardy @ 2.26 99. GGL over Ferrer @ 6.2 100. Hernych over Hewitt @ 2.5 101. Martin over Roddick @ 2.06 102. Safin over Gonzo @ 2.28 103. Czinc over Kloesel @ 2.32 104. Lino over Hant @ 2.82 105. Stosue over Ivanovic @ 3.4 106. Kanepi over Peschke @ 2.12 107. Vocko over Lisjak @ 1.99 108. Mirza over Myskina @ 4.9 109. Raymond over Hingis @ 38 110. Ondraskova over Schruff @ 2.06 111. Jackson over Yan @ 1.99 112. Gagliardi over Camerin @ 2.48 113. Golovin over Zheng @ 1.73 114. Pin over Groenefeld @ 8.6 115. Azarenka over Medina @ 3.05 116. Perry over Asagoe @ 1.93 117. Lorenzo over Pironkova @ 2.1 118. Savchuk over Peer @ 6.8 119. Bandi over Fedak @ 2.68 120. Bremond over Kirilenko @ 1.13 121. Craybas over Yakimova @ 2.26 122. Dulko over Bey @ 2.62 123. Fernandez over Loit @ 2.72 124. Ani over Henin @ 34 125. Cornet over Ruano Pascua @ 2.76 126. Garbin over Koukalova @ 2.28 127. Johansson over Hsieh @ 3 128. Morigami over Petrova @ 17 Current Bank (P/L) : 169.13pts (-30.87pts) Total staked : 128pts W/L (Strike) : 15/76 (19.7%)

[davidmphill]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs Good luck buddy, its sure to turn for you sooner than later.

[robby]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs

77. Portas over Baggie @ 2.64 :wall 78. Faurel over Rochus @ 6.8 :wall 79. Shu over Hass @ 3.45 :wall 80. Vanek over Mahut @ 2.04 :clap 81. Benn over Tips @ 2.04 :clap 82. Chela over 'dasco @ 2.40 :wall 83. Waske over Vicente @ 2.76 :clap 84. Hernandez over Simon @ 3.8 :clap 85. Patience over Ivo @ 2.36 :wall 86. Norman over Massa @ 2.42 :clap 87. Van Gem over Monaco @ 3.45 :wall 88. Murray over Monfils @ 2.36 :wall 89. Roitman over Hrbaty @ 3.4 :wall 90. Ascione over RHH @ 3.35 :wall 91. Berlocq over Ljub @ 7.2 :wall 92. ToJo over Rochus @ 2.04 :wall 93. Horna over Djokovic @ 2.08 :wall 94. Sabau over Kindlmann @ 2.28 :wall 95. Phau over Mathieu @ 4.7 :wall 96. Montcourt over Daniel @ 2.6 :clap 97. Vik over Serra @ 2.56 :wall 98. Bjorkman over Chardy @ 2.26 :wall 99. GGL over Ferrer @ 6.2 :wall 100. Hernych over Hewitt @ 2.5:wall 101. Martin over Roddick @ 2.06:clap 102. Safin over Gonzo @ 2.28:wall 103. Czinc over Kloesel @ 2.32 :clap 104. Lino over Hant @ 2.82 :wall 105. Stosue over Ivanovic @ 3.4 :wall 106. Kanepi over Peschke @ 2.12 :clap 107. Vosko over Lisjak @ 1.99 :wall 108. Mirza over Myskina @ 4.9 :wall 109. Raymond over Hingis @ 38 :wall 110. Ondraskova over Schruff @ 2.06 :clap 111. Jackson over Yan @ 1.99 :clap 112. Gagliardi over Camerin @ 2.48:clap 113. Golovin over Zheng @ 1.73 :wall 114. Pin over Groenefeld @ 8.6 :wall 115. Azarenka over Medina @ 3.05:wall 116. Perry over Asagoe @ 1.93 :clap 117. Lorenzo over Pironkova @ 2.1 :wall 118. Savchuk over Peer @ 6.8 :wall 119. Bandi over Fedak @ 2.68 :wall 120. Bremond over Kirilenko @ 1.13 :wall 121. Craybas over Yakimova @ 2.26:wall 122. Dulko over Bey @ 2.62 :clap 123. Fernandez over Loit @ 2.72 :wall 124. Ani over Henin @ 34 :wall 125. Cornet over Ruano Pascua @ 2.76 126. Garbin over Koukalova @ 2.28 :clap 127. Johansson over Hsieh @ 3:clap 128. Morigami over Petrova @ 17:clap

:unsure

[robby]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs 129. Volandri over Berdych @ 3.25 130. Gicquel over Kiefer @ 5.1 131. Youzhny over Moya @ 3.55 132. Saretta over Davy @ 9.2 133. Harkleroad over Srebotnik @ 3.85 134. Sromova over Safina @ 12.5 135. Rezai over Sugiyama @ 2.76 136. Chakvetadze over Li @ 2.22 137. Falla over Federer @ 55 138. Sun over Vaidisova @ 11 139. Flipkens ver Pennetta @ 8 140. Bartoli over Jankovic @ 2.58 141. Muller over Shiavone @ 5.5 142. Benesova over Sharapova @ 4.8 143. Mirnyi over Massu @ 2.38 144. Capdeville over Ancic @ 3.9 145. Korolev over Guadio @ 4.1 146. Galvani over Montanes @ 2.64 147. Dimi over Henman @ 2.34 148. Koh over Ferrero @ 3.9 149. Dush over Mauresmo @ 20 150. Gasquet over Nalby @ 5 151. Dlouhy over Aca @ 8.4 152. Molik over Perian @ 2.12 153. Gajdosova over Schnyder @ 9.2 154. Arguello over Grosjean @ 6 155. Sluiter over Lapentti @ 2.2 156. Arvidsson over Vak @ 2.6 157. Sant over Kuz @ 12 158. Laine over Williams @ 17 159. Sprem over Peng @ 2.58 160. Bozoljac over Robredo @ 16 Current Bank (P/L) : 172.25pts (-27.75pts) Total staked : 160pts W/L (Strike) : 32/128 (25%) (32 Pending)

[robby]

Re: Against the Market - Tennis Dogs Benn over Baggie @ 3.3 Czink over Myskina @ 7.4 Gagliardi over Hant @ 3.45 Montcourt over Hewitt @ 4.2 Loit over Ivanovic @ 4.9 Karlovic over Hrbaty @ 2.14 Kindlmann over Martin @ 6 Sang over Step @ 6.4 Vanek over Rochus @ 5.9 Dechy over Castano @ 1.79 Djokovic over Gonzo @ 4.3 Dulko over Fedak @ 1.99 Perry over Morigami @ 3.1 Yakimova over Henin @ 32 Johansson over Kirilenko @ 6.2 Blake over 'gro @ 3.45 Waske over Haas @ 5.8 Norman over Monfils @ 4.9 Pironkova over Peer @ 4.1 Serra over PHM @ 2.42 Hernandez over Ljubicic @ 6.8 Jackson over Groenfeld @ 4.9 Ondraskova over Hingis @ 26 C. Rochus over RHH @ 2.62 Monaco over Verdasco @ 2.88 Kut over Dementieva @ 6.8 Kim over Nadal @ 95 Lisjak over Zheng @ 5.3 Chardy over Ferrer @ 14.5 Granados over Clijster @ 23 Kanepi over Medina @ 1.34 Will update yesterdays when the rain delays are over.