% Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System

[THE % MAN]

Danny, rooster and a few other threads on the forum that deal with laying have always interested me although laying is not my scene.Have always in my own mind thought that devising a lay system or win system to do with trainers may be another approach worth following. I've been taking a look at Handicaps and found some very interesting stats that play to both ideas [lay or bet]. I just wondered if anybody would be interested in the conclusions I've come up with. This will be very easy to follow and full details will be given but it will be up to you to find the qulifiers. If I get enough responce to this thread I will surply all that is needed to use this system. THE % MAN

[sensibleboy]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Im very much interested in all systems mate so would be happy to see how your system will work. Lets just hope we get enough response to the thread then. :ok

[traf]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System I'm interested in any system that appears logical and well-though out: yours certainly seem to be that. There's also the prospect of some profit too, which is nice!

[georgej]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Can't think of any systems that are based on trainers so i'm definately curious to see what is involved :ok.

[THE % MAN]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System

Im very much interested in all systems mate so would be happy to see how your system will work. Lets just hope we get enough response to the thread then. :ok

Hi mate If I dont get enough response to this thread I will make sure you get a private message Out lining my findings. As soon as you write you will have to find the relevent selections yourself in the thread nobody seems interested all they want is for you, me or any of the other fine members who submit their threads on a daily basis to do all the work for them. Thanks for your response and you will find out about this one way or another. THE % MAN

[goodfren]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Count me in too Mr % I do like to see system about A/H cos it was my second interest but no time at present to think about it. Great to see some idea in A/H, very few are available in forum.

[THE % MAN]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Thanks for the responce. The idea came from looking at Handicap races and after a horse had won how it performed on its next Handicap. Also I'm stats mad and always looking for things most people would not even look at. On some occations when looking to find winning systems the opposite can appear. I have grate admeration for Danny Cash as I know the amount of work he puts into his lay thread. So in away you have him to blame him for this system.The system is in to parts a Lay system and a win system, in part 1 we will deal with the lay system. This deals with trainers in my opinion who get their horses ready just to win one race and then thats that,it may win again but not its next race. LAY SYSTEM RULES. MUST HAVE WON ITS LAST RACE MUST NOT BE FAV OR JT FAV MUST NOT HAVE RAN IN LAST 9 DAYS MUST BE 14/1 OR LESS OR NO MORE THAN 20 ON BETFAIR. Listed below are the top 30 trainers to lay in their next handicap. Name RUNS/WINS BETFAIR ESIMATED ROI % T Barron 157/15 80% M Channon 156/10 64% Stoute 147/13 67% Littmonden 138/11 83% K Burke 135/11 70% M Jarvis 133/11 51% E Dunlop 128/11 67% M W Easterby 128/11 75% B Meehan 111/7 54% E Alston 93/7 82% R Charlton 93/4 22% B Millmen 76/6 48% A jARVIS 76/2 24% D Chapmen 63/4 44% J ACKHURST 62/4 60% T MILLS 62/5 62% RAMSDAN 56/4 52% S Kirk 48/2 40% P Howling 42/3 56% B Palling 40/1 20% I Woods 39/2 58% M Polglase 37/1 21% Pipe 35/2 40% Ellison 34/2 42% J Boyle 34/2 40% K Ivory 32/1 24% J Moore 31/2 45% J Bridger 31/1 16% W Swinburn 28/1 27% Their are many more and in my opinion if you are not laying them it would be advisable to leave them out of a winning bet. Part 2 will come later and are to do with Trainers you would be better following to win in its next race

[goodfren]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Oh i.c is a horse handicap not asian handicap, anyway, i think your system is not bad either for horse looking at trainer. Is a good idea thou. Happy analysing.

[THE % MAN]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System

Can't think of any systems that are based on trainers so i'm definately curious to see what is involved :ok.

Well just stop and think about it on a Saturday for instance if there were 4 meetings with 6 races and say there was an average of 10 runners thats 240 horses and 24 winners. 40 to 50 % of those will be handicaps so lets say 10 races so 100 horses 10 winners and out of those winners how many won their last race. The list of trainers I've shown would have shown a considerable loss even if you took BETFAIR odds so in my mind if one of the trainers mentioned had a runner that won LTO it would be advisable to Lay the horse or leave it out if you was trying to find the winner.As I said in the 1st thread LAYING HORSES is not my thing but when trying to find winning systems the complete opposite can occure and these are my findings and if they are of use to anybody all well and good. For myself if I was looking to find a winner in a Handicap and one of those came up I would look else ware. You may not agree with me but only trying to bring different ideas to the forum and to try and show something most people would not even look at. THE % MAN

[THE % MAN]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System

Thanks for the responce. The idea came from looking at Handicap races and after a horse had won how it performed on its next Handicap. Also I'm stats mad and always looking for things most people would not even look at. On some occations when looking to find winning systems the opposite can appear. I have grate admeration for Danny Cash as I know the amount of work he puts into his lay thread. So in away you have him to blame him for this system.The system is in to parts a Lay system and a win system, in part 1 we will deal with the lay system. This deals with trainers in my opinion who get their horses ready just to win one race and then thats that,it may win again but not its next race. LAY SYSTEM RULES. MUST HAVE WON ITS LAST RACE MUST NOT BE FAV OR JT FAV MUST NOT HAVE RAN IN LAST 9 DAYS MUST BE 14/1 OR LESS OR NO MORE THAN 20 ON BETFAIR. Listed below are the top 30 trainers to lay in their next handicap. Name RUNS/WINS BETFAIR ESIMATED ROI % T Barron 157/15 80% M Channon 156/10 64% Stoute 147/13 67% Littmonden 138/11 83% K Burke 135/11 70% M Jarvis 133/11 51% E Dunlop 128/11 67% M W Easterby 128/11 75% B Meehan 111/7 54% E Alston 93/7 82% R Charlton 93/4 22% B Millmen 76/6 48% A jARVIS 76/2 24% D Chapmen 63/4 44% J ACKHURST 62/4 60% T MILLS 62/5 62% RAMSDAN 56/4 52% S Kirk 48/2 40% P Howling 42/3 56% B Palling 40/1 20% I Woods 39/2 58% M Polglase 37/1 21% Pipe 35/2 40% Ellison 34/2 42% J Boyle 34/2 40% K Ivory 32/1 24% J Moore 31/2 45% J Bridger 31/1 16% W Swinburn 28/1 27% Their are many more and in my opinion if you are not laying them it would be advisable to leave them out of a winning bet. Part 2 will come later and are to do with Trainers you would be better following to win in its next race

This is part 2 of the idea and uses the same stats as for the LAY SYSTEM TRAINER RUNS /WINS ROI % RETURN J DUNLOP 175/27 122% H MORRISON 81/14 149% C BRITTEN 83/12 115% W JARVIS 74/15 165% G BUTLER 67/13 174% J PEARCE 62/8 143% R GUEST 58/10 152% N CALLAGHAN 56/11 157% J OSBORNE 53/9 145% S BOWRING 52/8 163% J GLOVER 46/8 174% D BARKER 46/11 244% LADY HERRIES 42/8 212% C CYZER 42/6 142% P HIATT 40/6 142% P C HYAM 34/8 136% J EUSTACE 33/5 161% G BALDING 30/6 229% SUROOR 28/7 192% I WILLIAMS 27/4 183% G MARGARSON 15/5 193% A DUFFIELD 24/6 216% R ALLAN 13/4 182% These are some of the trainers it would be advisable NOT TO LAY and I hope it may be of interest to some. This is just another tool that may help you decide whether to LAY OR NOT. THE % MAN

[Sunshine Avenue]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Hi % Man, excellent meathod. A usefull way of using this type of system, is to trade for green ink, then 'green-up', if fail (red ink) get out 'in running'. this is a slow moving, safety ist, operation, nailed on profit. ........Sunshine

[THE % MAN]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System

Hi % Man' date=' excellent meathod. A usefull way of using this type of system, is to trade for green ink, then 'green-up', if fail (red ink) get out 'in running'. this is a slow moving, safety ist, operation, nailed on profit. ........Sunshine[/quote'] Thanks for the interest as this was put up by me to show what might happen if you backed a LTO WINNER in its next HANDICAP RACE and was not going to keep records of future races so don't know if its still working out.

[DC]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Nice idea %Man! Something I've never thought of - looking at the trainers rather than the horses ability. It'd be interesting to paper test it over the next few weeks to see how it fares. Personaly I wouldn't lay anything that showed over 85% ROI because there is still commission to take out of the equation. I also like the idea that it won't take that long to search out the qualifiers. All you need to do is cross out all races barr handicaps and then anything that didn't win last time. It'll only take a few minutes to cross reference the horse's trainer with the list of BAD trainers. I like it. All the best :ok Danny

[DC]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System I've just noticed that the list of trainers contains no ROI over 85% anyway, so ignore that comment!

[Sunshine Avenue]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Amazing how few selections we get from such long lists. Can be adapted to get more selections. LTO H'cap winner up/down in trip,wrong going/draw/trainer/track record good/bad,etc,etc. may be able to sift through most LTO H'cap winners, and find a back or lay. But it's mostly reflected in the price !...............Sunshine

[THE % MAN]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System

Amazing how few selections we get from such long lists. Can be adapted to get more selections. LTO H'cap winner up/down in trip' date='wrong going/draw/trainer/track record good/bad,etc,etc. may be able to sift through most LTO H'cap winners, and find a back or lay. But it's mostly reflected in the price !...............Sunshine[/quote'] Hi Sunshine The lay part of this idea only put up trainers that had 30 runs or more and their are many more with less runners that would qualify but were do I draw the line but their were quite a lot that had 20 runs and no wins. I was only trying to show a different approach to laying or ones to follow.If you would like to know other trainers that would be worth laying just send me a private message. Also if the horse won LTO in any race other than an handicap as long as this race is an handicap the method should still work. % MAN:ok

[pinhofap]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System % Man, thanks for sharing these ideas with us. Will keep a watch on this system, look like good material to Back or Lay. Best wishes Pinho, Portugal

[Sunshine Avenue]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System % Man, you're one of the guys who's not afraid of hard work, researching possible 'edge' most have'nt considered. This is the only way forward. Last season I spent countless hours monitoring Above/Below 2.5 goals.Could not get away from the 5% 'take'. In hindsite, many simplistic markets don't have the 'scope' for profit, not enough variables. Asian h,caps & total goals, are of interest to me. We only have to be 2% better than the market to profit, 1% Betfair 'take'. Horse racing ''in-running'' is ok for those with fastest pictures. SIS but costs £6,300 +vat. Don't suppose we can sit in Willy Hills, with our laptops, for long, without being told to leave. Good luck % man, the harder we work-the luckier we get....Sunshine

[THE % MAN]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Thanks SA The trouble with a lot of people is they want a quick fix and don't look at the overall picture. Horses are my main interest today although many moons ago I did the pools and fixed odds and what a lot of todays young punters don't relise is the diminishing odds the fixed odds people give you these days. If they could get old of a fixed odds coupon from 10 yrs ago they might see how the bookies have shortend the odds and in my mind the've taken a lot of the value away. As for my systems or ideas a lot of work goes into them and they must stand the test of time. Also many people look at to bigger picture and instead of looking deeper reject it out of hand because it looks and will be rubbish as it stands. Then theirs the people who want everything doing for them and are quick to give you grief if things are going badly. Thank god this forum is not like that and thats why I only use this forum and no other. Hope the comming soccer season gives you some nice touches the % MAN.......

[Sunshine Avenue]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Hi...yesterday (July 29 ) 35 LTO winners ran in H'caps. 30 lost 5 won 7/2 11/4 6/1 6/1 11/4 allowing for Betfair prices, about 25% profit selling, but many long shots, so place sells reduce volatility. Lay/Back & Back/Lay 'in-running, is my favoured racing operation. Looking forward to Goodwood.......Sunshine

[THE % MAN]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Looks interesting mate and to be honest I don't think many get 2 on the trot. I would always avoid Prescott because he can have a string of winners with is horses and any that won within the week and those I mentioned in the original thread. I'm glad the idea as been of interest to you and if you are following it in any way please keep the thread informed.

[pinhofap]

Re: % Man Lay Or Play Handicap Winners System Been looking through the racecards and no qualifiers for this system for tomorrow, although some LTO winners, but not with %Man trainers. Will be also updating when I can.