AFL Round 7

[robby]

Friday, 12th May St. Kilda vs. Geelong Telstra Dome (Night) Saturday, 13th May Melbourne vs. Fremantle M.C.G. Richmond vs. Sydney Telstra Dome Hawthorn vs. Brisbane Lions Carrara (Night) - note: not a 'true' home game West Coast vs. Collingwood Subiaco (Night) Sunday, 14th May Port Adelaide vs. Western Bulldogs AAMI Stadium (Early Start) Carlton vs. Essendon M.C.G. Kangaroos vs. Adelaide Telstra Dome

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 Fremantle +6.5 Hopefully there won't be an Freo letdown after the dramas of the last 2 weeks, but I think the Dockers are the better side here. The MCG is no concern...they have beaten Melbourne here on their last 2 meetings...they've also won 6 of their last 8 at the ground. Melbourne have won just one single game in their last 10 by more than 6 points! Freo midfield is much stronger, and I don't think their backline can hold Pavlich and co. Bulldogs +12.5 Two decent losses in the last 2 weeks, but against two of the top 3 midfields in the AFL. (Adelaide and St. Kilda) Port Adelaide have the WORST midfield (statistically of course), having the fewest inside 50's (44.6 per game...-11 compared to their opp!), so I doubt very much whether they can apply the pressure the Dogs have seen over the last couple of weeks. The Bulldogs record isn't good at Adelaide, but Port are really struggling atm, losing 5 of their last 7 at home...one of those wins by just 4 points. I think the Dogs will have a much easier time of it this week and shuld be able to at least keep it close, if not win. Brisbane -4.5 Croad and Crawford both out for the Hawks leaves a big hole...and Jacobs is 50/50 apparently with a sore back. I think Brisbane will cause the Hawks backline some serious match-up problems with Brown and Bradshaw. Zac Dawson has faced 2 big, strong forwards and had bags kicked on him both times (Rocca and Thompson). I know the Lions are on the downhill slide, but really this Hawthorn team will be the worst they have faced all season. Should be to strong. Crows (~1.40) Not sure if they will cover the spread, but a very likely win indeed to the Crows who are a FAR beter outfit than the Kangaroos. Grest odds imo.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7 So, FREO Taza :loon :lol ! I think they're the play also, actually :ok. If both Neitz and Miller play, well I like that because both are chasing a bit of form, wheras the Melb forward line has looked more lively without them. Brown expected to miss, always gives them that run out of defence. Whelan in. Sandilands out but Longmuir to come in and they're also playing a first gamer ruckmen apparently. Overall they have the quality though and with a head start they're the value bet in my view. Interesting that three games pair winners from last week and three games pair losers. I may play Hawthorn. We thought Richmond would be monstered also but they had too much run. Hawks still have plenty of that and this price is blowing right out. J.Brown appears playing injured?? and Johnson out is big loss. Some good judges out there are playing Bris. but I honestly think they're wooden spoon stuff. Obviously the Hawks forwards and midfielders will need to do the job. The bet I'm all over is Collingwood. A typical market based on reputation in my view. A few lower sides have come out hungry against them but they dealt with that, no problem. I even think they can this time have the motivational edge for this challenge. Huge price. Swans and Dons I'm also considering. Yeah, the Crows are very hard to oppose Taza. I'm looking for a let down but they're such a pro club. Kangas may get some spark off the recent form so I wouldn't be keen about chasing any sizable spreads, although you'd think three goals is within Adelaide's capabilities. Skippers absense seemed to hurt Dogs structure heaps last week ( maybe would have lost anyway). Just wonder if Port will enjoy playing them this week Taza? I see the dogs as slight value though but not enough for a play for me.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 We thought Richmond would be monstered also but they had too much run. No we didn't...I said Richmond or nothing, and another guy (forget who right now) had the Tige's to win SU! ;) :D Yeah mate, I know what you mean tho, they are pretty poor...although to me, Chris Johnson is a good out. He (imo) has been one of the main culprits...not realising his limitations now he's "old", and constantly getting fustrated. To me, the form line is interesting...The Bears (well, it is at Carrara ;)) have played Sydney, West Coast, St. Kilda and @ Geelong (with a full team). Granted the loss to Richmond was a slight concern, but 4 losses to maybe top 6 teams. Hawthorn have beaten Freo at a place they'd never won, Geelong with half a team, Essendon and Carlton, 2 bottom 4 teams... ...I do think that Brisbane may have lost their appeal @ 1.65, but I think they should be able to cover the -4.5. Collingwood is the other interesting game..."a few lower sides" just might be the key. I agree 100%, they are playing great football, but Hawthorn, Port, Essendon, Carlton will all finish in the bottom 6...well, 8 at least. They were beaten handsomely by the Crows quality midfield and strong defense...both things the Eagles have. Can't bring myself to take either team. And no, tbh I don't think the loss of Skipper hurt too much at all really mate. Street was fantastic in the ruck...Skipper is too 'fragile' to play a major defensive role...maybe he could have been a target at FF, but other than that I think the main thing that got St. Kilda over the line was Hudgeton's job on Murphy, which basically cut our main avenue to goal...which certainly came out of the blue for me, given how badly their defense had struggled previously. As I said, I don't think the Port midfield can put on the same pressure that has slow the Dogs down in the last couple...should be a more free-flowing affair, which will suit us no end. Good luck mate.

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Round 7 Taking the teams i think are good for a win. Freemantle @ 2.15 Well its about time i won money back from Freo, they ass raped me last week. They did it to me last year against the D's and know i can se another win for Freo and they love beating the Deamons. Brisbane -5.5 Brisbane need to try and overcome this mental thing in there head and come out and play some Football. Plus i am not fully convinced with Hawthorne, yet. Brisbanes still have decent players to beat teams, its just more of a mental thing for me. Bulldogs +12.5 Bulldogs need to get back on track and Port is a team they can beat. Port/Dogs Over (Depending total) Both teams can score and they remind me of the suns in the NBA Thats what i am taking, please post feedback as i always wait 10mins before placing bets, as anything can happen.:ok :beer

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7

We thought Richmond would be monstered also but they had too much run.

Yes I know you're early thoughts were keen on Tigers Taza. Not taking one from you there ;) . I considered them myself and I remember congrating someone who did. I believe that was a widespread fear though (not just here). Think could and not would was the word I needed to use. Buckley out for Collingwood obviously has me rethinking the bet. The ..."a few lower sides" issue is actually the trick that appeals to me, at the price. Yeah, not down back but watching it i felt they needed a Wade Skipper to throw forward. As you basically said their forward line wasn't working as it was and they were low on talls to throw around. Also, watching on tele Saints seemed to do good job making dogs go wide and must have close checked the dogs best ball users while they were happy for guys like Street, hargrave to be free link men.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7

Event	Hawthorn v Brisbane
Selection	Hawthorn
Strength	7/10
Date	13/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	UKBetting @ 2.20 (Back)
Reasoning	Brisbane continue to be ranked on reputation. Half a team of Premiership players (not even that many this week) but overall they just aren’t up to it! Throw in the detraction of some team unity issues! Also suspicions about the fitness of Brown? Obviously some good players missing from both teams. Some fears around that Hawthorn defence could be monstered, but Carrara is likely to suit Hawthorn IMO. They have no shortage of pace and I believe they have the better and in-form players overall. I’m hoping player contract issues highlighted earlier in the week aren’t any motivational distraction. Off some good form they got a kick in the backside last week and at these odds they a very inviting bet. My rating: Hawthorn 8/11

[robby]

Re: AFL Round 7 Now, even if you do support the Tigers, there is always fear going into each game ;). Which is one I think they'll lose this week. I'd like to see them win, without any doubt. I think they have a stronger chance of winning this week than they do against the Crows. However, I think there is going to be a few points against them to win against Sydney (well, an in form one) Sydney tends to dominate the ball in the final quarter. A quarter than Richmond haven't won this year. Sydney (because of that domination) don't tend to blow leads going into the final quarter. The implosion of Essendon last week shouldn't happen. If it's close, and considering all of the games that Richmond has won this year, it will be. Sydney can use the above mention points to close it out well. Richmond has a lot of young talent, who has some chaotic style of play. The ball control of Sydney should win out though.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7

Event	Richmond v Sydney
Selection	Sydney
Strength	7/10
Date	13/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.72 (Back)
Reasoning	Looks to be a step up in opponent for Richmond. Sydney coasted to victory last week, admittedly over a weak Brisbane. They are in the middle of an anticipated up period of form IMO. Davis back has them virtually full strength while Gasper and Johnson are named as emergencies for Richmond, so maybe there could be late changes. I’m looking for Polo to be quiet this week. Likewise, psychologically it’s not always easy to maintain winning momentum, so I have to slightly apply that possibility against Richmond. Williams 300th. All in all this is a good price about the Swans.

[robby]

Re: AFL Round 7 My leans on QT results, will probably update throughout the weekend as weather and any changes to side come into play. Saints (geelong is a strong starter as well, but against gehrig and no mooney? dunno) Sydney * Wood * (may be a strong value bet) odds are following the FT line, and wood has a very strong QT record, even beating the Crows. Losses to the dons and hawks though, but they are decent QT performers as well. West Coast isn't. Won one QT against Bris. and that was last minute. Hawks* Port * should be easy over the dogs, who are very poor at qt dons * crows * mel v freo QT is the only one I'm not solid on, and the *'s are the ones I'm overly keen on.

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL Round 7

Yes I know you're early thoughts were keen on Tigers Taza. Not taking one from you there ;) . I considered them myself and I remember congrating someone who did..

:nana Anyway, I am not gonna play the Melbourne game because Freo's game-after-the-derby record is poor. St Kilda -14.5, 2.10 @ Betfair.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7 Was just messing about with the Richmond call mate...but I still think that Brisbane are the play this weekend...esp. now I see them down to -4.5 again. No Acker, Johnson or Leppitch = good thing, imo. A clear sign has been sent to the group and I think the younger players will repond. Geelong v. St. Kilda under 181 (2.90) [182-202 (3.10 as a saver] Much higher total than I had expected...and a much better price than I'd hoped! Seems that many (like me last week!) still doubt the Saints backline, but their record at the Dome is outstanding, allowing just 75 ppg in their last 10 game there. After a strong start at home, Geelong have failed to top 100 in their last 4, scoring 49, 97, 85 & 81. The Saints have topped 100 just twice this season, both against 2 poor defensive teams (Port and Brisbane)...and only then with very straight kicking. (18.10 and 19.10), and with Harley back in the Geelong team I think it will be a pretty tight game.

[robby]

Re: AFL Round 7 My plays tonight. Geelong to win on QT 5pts @ 2 Betfair St Kilda - 9.5 15pts @ 2.02 Betfair

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 7 Collingwood 3.20 Collingwood +19.5 at 1.95

Reasoning

Reputation over recent seasons appears to be a factor in the market here, despite the fact Collingwood were seriously hampered with injuries last season after a let down year in 2004. The form lines through Adelaide also appears applied to the market but at this point the Rd-1 result (Coll v Adel) should be taken more lightly. I rate Collingwood a first-rate team, strong in all areas and I’ll also point out that youngsters in Shaw and O’Brien are very, very good players. Collingwood’s line-up is very settled and the form is excellent and I liked the way they overcame the challenge provided by a couple of hungry lower teams. This game presents a fresh and timely challenge, so minimal let down danger here and to the contrary I think Collingwood can even have the motivational ascendancy in this. WCE may be stung by the loss last week and it goes without saying that they are a top contender, but quite clearly the odds do not credit Collingwood enough respect. Cousins, Hansen return for WCE, while Buckley is obviously a big omission. My rating: West Coast 8/13 Thought I’d split this bet and place half on the spread.

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL Round 7 its funny how people doubt the saints backline, we conceded the 2nd least amount of points last season. but then again, im a saints fan and was at the match, and it hurt bad to watch that tonight!!! it seems like our back line has been figured out - we can't handle chipping around the 50... scary. mat.

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Round 7

Was just messing about with the Richmond call mate...but I still think that Brisbane are the play this weekend...esp. now I see them down to -4.5 again. No Acker, Johnson or Leppitch = good thing, imo. A clear sign has been sent to the group and I think the younger players will repond. Geelong v. St. Kilda under 181 (2.90) [182-202 (3.10 as a saver] Much higher total than I had expected...and a much better price than I'd hoped! Seems that many (like me last week!) still doubt the Saints backline, but their record at the Dome is outstanding, allowing just 75 ppg in their last 10 game there. After a strong start at home, Geelong have failed to top 100 in their last 4, scoring 49, 97, 85 & 81. The Saints have topped 100 just twice this season, both against 2 poor defensive teams (Port and Brisbane)...and only then with very straight kicking. (18.10 and 19.10), and with Harley back in the Geelong team I think it will be a pretty tight game.

Very high total, Multibet had 196 and i snapped that under pretty quick;)

[robby]

Re: AFL Round 7 +10pts Early Games Sydney to win at QT 15pts @ 1.82 - Betfair Sydney to win FT 5 pts @ 1.51 - Betfair (cover) Sydney/Richmond HT/FT 1pt @ 7.8 - Betfair Freo to win QT 15pts @ 2.10 - Centrebet Freo to win FT 5pts @ 2.28 - Betfair (cover) Freo/Melbourne 2pts @ 7.2 - Betfair

[robby]

Re: AFL Round 7 Whoops, all QT bets are 15pts, didn't notice that I put the pts layout on the wrong ones last night. Oh well, I'll carry that on here. -10pts instead of +10

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL Round 7 Nice and complicated there Robby I hope it works out for you Mat.

[robby]

Re: AFL Round 7

Nice and complicated there Robby I hope it works out for you Mat.

It would have worked great if Freo actually came to play. Covers to protect the 2nd half comeback biting me, though it actually requires the pick to kick ...something. Shouldn't have backed them away from home, silly me :D

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Round 7

']Taking the teams i think are good for a win. Freemantle @ 2.15 Well its about time i won money back from Freo, they ass raped me last week. They did it to me last year against the D's and know i can se another win for Freo and they love beating the Deamons. Brisbane -5.5 Brisbane need to try and overcome this mental thing in there head and come out and play some Football. Plus i am not fully convinced with Hawthorne, yet. Brisbanes still have decent players to beat teams, its just more of a mental thing for me. Bulldogs +12.5 Bulldogs need to get back on track and Port is a team they can beat. Port/Dogs Over (Depending total) Both teams can score and they remind me of the suns in the NBA Thats what i am taking, please post feedback as i always wait 10mins before placing bets, as anything can happen.:ok :beer

Changing my pick from Brisbane to Hawthorne as i have heard that Aka will be retiring and will go to the reserves. Plus there is alot of uncertinty between the players. I feel that this will effect the team on the field. I heard this from a mate of mine that is a trainer in the Lions camp;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 7

']Changing my pick from Brisbane to Hawthorne as i have heard that Aka will be retiring and will go to the reserves. Plus there is alot of uncertinty between the players. I feel that this will effect the team on the field. I heard this from a mate of mine that is a trainer in the Lions camp;)

Mate, Akermanis was dropped on Thursday after weeks of speculation... ...questioned the coach publicly, may have leaked team plans through an article in the paper... ...anyway, I take it you don't live in Australia, Loki? ...Maybe it's not such a big story up north, but it's been Aker-saturation down here! Anyway (twice!)... Brisbane -3.5 I see it going the other way. 3 experienced players out, but all have been under-performing badly anyway. A lot of the younger Brisbane 'kids' can play, and this is their perfect time to show it. Hawthorn have even bigger injury worries with Croad, Crawford and Jacobs out (3 of their best 4 players, imo). I can't see how the Hawks top 80 with this team line-up, and down back Dawson will have to play on either Brown (if not 100%, it would be perfect for the Lions to 'rest' him at FF), Bradshaw, or (as named, but less likely) Michael...either way, it gets messy. Hawthorn's wins have been over poor opposition, while the Lions have had a tough run lately, playing some good teams...esp. good defensive teams. A big drop in class for the Lions here, and they really should win, Aker or no ;)

[robby]

Re: AFL Round 7 -18.15pts Collingwood has a great QT record, West Coast .. not. Hope the rebound factor doesn't come into this, though 'wood should be well prepared for it. Collingwood to win QT 15pts @ 2.4 - Betfair Collingwood to win FT 5pts @ 3.55 - Betfair Hawks are better at QT than the Lions, but they don't have the arsenal to do it this week. Lions to win QT 15pts @ 1.85 - Betfair Lions to win FT 5pts @ 1.86 - Betfair

[robby]

Re: AFL Round 7 Thought I'd give level staking a go, going to keep it for the rest of the weekend, won't next week though. -21.1pts Crows to win QT 15pts @ 1.61 - Betfair Crows -18.5 5pts @ 1.94 - Betfair Port to win QT 15pts @ 1.77 - Betfair Dogs +12.5 5pts @ 1.71 Dons to win QT 15pts @ 1.74 - Betfair Dons - 9.5 5pts @ 1.86 - Betfair