Baseball Double Result

[pedigreechump6]

I have found a price discrepancy that I cannot explain in baseball. On Bet365, there is a bet called the double result which is much like HT/FT in other sports where you predict the result after 5 innings AND at the end. What I don't understand is that only many occasions the double result odds seem to offer extraordinariy good value. Take tonights match Clevland @ Oakland, the game line suggest that Oakland are clear favourites with odds of 1.78 Vs Clevland's 2.07 and yet the double result shows that both teams have odds of 2.75 to be winning after 5 innings and at full time. Surely Oakland are by far a better shot for the double result? Can anybody explain this? It has occured four times in tonights matches and each time the outsider is away from home but hits first, could this be a contributing factor, and if so why?

[robby]

Re: Baseball Double Result Well, I throw you an answer to your particular example. The away team always bats first, without exception. There shouldn't be any reason why batting first would make a difference. However, there may be a difference depending on how a team performs at home, vs on the road. Various reasons on why a team would do better at home or away. The reason why the 5th inning is the cut off point is because that's the avg time a bullpen gets active. It may not be used until later in the game, but it's not often you see relief pitchers being used before hand. Currently Cleveland is averaging 6.3 runs per game (7.3 in the past 7). However, the opponents are averaging 5.5. Their bullpen has an era of 5.61 and has blown 3 saves so far this year. Which a blown save would ruin the 5/Full bet you're talking about. Oakland is averaging 4.7 runs per game (6.1/7) and has an excellent bullpen era of around 2.83 - but has blown 2/9 saves. Again, 2 games that would have ruined your 5/Full. So I imagine that the bookies are thinking it could falter in any number of ways. Both teams have been scoring, both have the potential of blowing the save. As far if it is the better shot, depends on how the 5th inning looks. If it's close then you would have to think Oak would have a chance, banking on Cleveland's poor bullpen. Same with Oak winning. However, if it's a shootout, Oakland may not be able to keep up. (Cleveland in general can score some runs, though with 202 LOB, they can squander some too)