Baseball Double Result

[pedigreechump6]

I have found a price discrepancy that I cannot explain in baseball. On Bet365, there is a bet called the double result which is much like HT/FT in other sports where you predict the result after 5 innings AND at the end. What I don't understand is that only many occasions the double result odds seem to offer extraordinariy good value. Take tonights match Clevland @ Oakland, the game line suggest that Oakland are clear favourites with odds of 1.78 Vs Clevland's 2.07 and yet the double result shows that both teams have odds of 2.75 to be winning after 5 innings and at full time. Surely Oakland are by far a better shot for the double result? Can anybody explain this? It has occured four times in tonights matches and each time the outsider is away from home but hits first, could this be a contributing factor, and if so why?

[robby]

Re: Baseball Double Result Well, I throw you an answer to your particular example. The away team always bats first, without exception. There shouldn't be any reason why batting first would make a difference. However, there may be a difference depending on how a team performs at home, vs on the road. Various reasons on why a team would do better at home or away. The reason why the 5th inning is the cut off point is because that's the avg time a bullpen gets active. It may not be used until later in the game, but it's not often you see relief pitchers being used before hand. Currently Cleveland is averaging 6.3 runs per game (7.3 in the past 7). However, the opponents are averaging 5.5. Their bullpen has an era of 5.61 and has blown 3 saves so far this year. Which a blown save would ruin the 5/Full bet you're talking about. Oakland is averaging 4.7 runs per game (6.1/7) and has an excellent bullpen era of around 2.83 - but has blown 2/9 saves. Again, 2 games that would have ruined your 5/Full. So I imagine that the bookies are thinking it could falter in any number of ways. Both teams have been scoring, both have the potential of blowing the save. As far if it is the better shot, depends on how the 5th inning looks. If it's close then you would have to think Oak would have a chance, banking on Cleveland's poor bullpen. Same with Oak winning. However, if it's a shootout, Oakland may not be able to keep up. (Cleveland in general can score some runs, though with 202 LOB, they can squander some too)

[eltrev]

Re: Baseball Double Result I could be wrong on this, but is the simple answer not that HT in this case is after 4 1/2 innings. Therefore, although Oakland are clear favourites, Cleveland will have batted for 5 innings and Oakland only for 4, hence the apparent value in the Oakland price.

[pedigreechump6]

Re: Baseball Double Result firstly eltrev, I have emailed bet365 about this and it is not HT but at the end of the fifth, so both teams have batted for the same number of innings. robby, I agree with what you are saying but surely all of those points would also be factored into the game line? This would mean that the teams would have equal odds in this respect also. IMHO, and I have looked closely into this, the team leading at HT often go onto win, no matter what the margin (obviously the bigger the better) and so it should come down to who is winning at HT. Is it the case that lower game line odds gives the team a better chance of winning at HT?

[robby]

Re: Baseball Double Result

firstly eltrev, I have emailed bet365 about this and it is not HT but at the end of the fifth, so both teams have batted for the same number of innings. robby, I agree with what you are saying but surely all of those points would also be factored into the game line? This would mean that the teams would have equal odds in this respect also. IMHO, and I have looked closely into this, the team leading at HT often go onto win, no matter what the margin (obviously the bigger the better) and so it should come down to who is winning at HT. Is it the case that lower game line odds gives the team a better chance of winning at HT?

Well, I don't have the stats in front of me, but I would hazard a guess that only 65% of games decided after 5 represent the winning team. It's early in the season, and the bullpens across the league aren't all up to par. Why don't the lines represent the whole game lines? Because 1-5 is a whole different ballgame to 6-9. and you're not talking that much of a difference anyways, from 4/5 to evens. Oakland will have a small advantage because of the pitching - starters and bullpen. But all of the pitching in the world means nothing if there isn't any runs on the board. Something Cleveland has shown it can do. 5/full assumes more risk. There is more risk in Oak at the end of 5, and more risk for Cleveland at the end of the game. Thus why it's even. Is it the case that lower game line odds gives the team a better chance of winning at HT? Odds don't reflect chances, better starting pitching + runs - lob would be a good start. You need runs, you need to be able to convert those runs, and you need the other team not to get runs. Hope that helps

[pedigreechump6]

Re: Baseball Double Result Thanks for the input robby, I can see your angle on things and I must say that my understanding is much greater now. One thing that I must say about baseball is that it seems to go against the form book far more than any other sport I have come across. I used to have a strategy based on the ERA of the starting pitcher, the number of runs scored by the teams in the previous week aswell as bonuses for home/away form and streaks. Unfortunately, despite this and more research, in a long run trial it did not provide a very good yield and was not worth my while. One of the major flaws I had with the recent batting figures for a team is that I did not take into consideration of who their recent opponents were and how good the opposition pitchers were, that was just too much of an information overload. Thanks again!

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Baseball Double Result One of the problems with baseball is that they play around 160games a season. The very best teams will only win 100 games, which means theyll still lose 60.

[robby]

Re: Baseball Double Result and the returns on those 100 games won't be large enough to make the 60 losses away from your value. odds will get skinnier pretty soon once each pitcher hits 7-10 games. Bookies have an idea on what is going on. The whole motivation 'game' that you deal with in Football at the end of the season will apply in baseball as well. Teams that secure spots will rest players (because 160 games will create wear and tear) and chasing teams/managers protecting jobs will go on last minute streaks. Form is really hard to get in baseball, even more so this early in the year. Keep in mind that the era needs to be investigated. Say a pitcher has pitched 4 games. Then apply this pitcher giving up 8 runs in two innings in the first game, but pitched 3 shutouts games. His era will still be extremely high. Era alone doesn't represent form.