Bedlam Posted May 2, 2006 Share Posted May 2, 2006 The play off results are almost impossible to predict, so must be very difficult for the bookies to price up,with often a team who were largely unfancied, or the lowest league position eventually gaining promotion. My intention is to use this unpredictability to my advantage.At first I couldn't decide whether to lay the favourites in each division, or back the outsiders. i have now decided to do the latter, as Betfair don't seem to be running a book on the Conference play-offs so laying the favourite isn't an option for me & I noticed that my fancy, Morecombe are the outsiders, with most bookies, despite being the in-form team. I will start with a bank 100pts & will bet half on the outsiders in each division from 1st to Conf (4x 12.5 pts bets) before the Semi finals. Then the other half of the starting bank on the outsider in the final (unless of course a team I have previously backed as the outsider of 4 suddenly becomes favourite for the final). Start Bank 100pts Championship Play offs: Back Watford 12.5pts @ 4.5 (Betfair) Conference: Back Morecombe 12.5 pts @ 5.0 (Sporting Odds) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 7, 2006 Author Share Posted May 7, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System Interesting dilemma for me after the Palace/Watford result, as I could now lay Watford for around evens with Betfair, & close the bet down for a nice profit. If i'd gone down the road of laying the favourites for promotion(Palace), that bet would be virtually in the bag now. There is no clear favourite or outsider for the div 1 play-offs, so i'll watch the market for a couple of days, maybe a lay would be more appropriate in this market Next bet: Backed Lincoln 12.5 pts @ 4.4 (Betfair) My natural instinct is to lay Wycombe @ 4.0 as they have been awful of late! I'm suprised that Grimsby aren't clear favourtites for promotion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 8, 2006 Author Share Posted May 8, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System Backed Barnsley to win div 1 play offs 12.5 pts @4.3(coral) I don't like this bet much, but as corals are offering significantly better odds than any other bookie & they are the outsiders, the system decrees I take the bet Current bets: Championship: Watford 12.5pts @ 4.5 Div 1: Barnsley 12.5pts @ 4.3 Div 2: Lincoln 12.5pts @ 4.4 Conf: Morecombe 12.5 pts @ 5.0 Bank 50pts(reserved for opposing the favs in the finals) I'm disappointed with the odds, as I thought the outsiders would be a bit longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 17, 2006 Author Share Posted May 17, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System Current bets: Championship: Watford 12.5pts @ 4.5:hope through to final Div 1: Barnsley 12.5pts @ 4.3:hope through to final Div 2: Lincoln 12.5pts @ 4.4:( bet lost Conf: Morecombe 12.5 pts @ 5.0:( bet lost Bank 50pts(reserved for opposing the favs in the finals) With 2 of the play-off outsiders through to the final, we only need 1 to win promotion for the 1st round of bets to show a profit. Second phase of bets covering the finals to follow.... I have seen enough in this years play-offs to give me encouragement that with a few tweaks,this has a foundations on which to build a system & given me a few ideas for next years play-off systems(eg laying the home team over 90 mins). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System As the system relies on the difficulty for bookies to price up the play-offs due to their unique nature & the teams being of similar strength, I feel that laying the favourite over 90 mins is the way to go for the finals &second half of bets. so... Hereford v Halifax..lay Hereford 9.05pts @ 2.38(12.5 pts liability) state of play: winning bets 0 losing bets 2 pending bets 3 bank 37.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 21, 2006 Author Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System Hereford v Halifax..lay Hereford 9.05pts @ 2.38(12.5 pts liability):clap Winner yesterday returned 21.12pts(commision deducted). bank now 58.62pts with 2 bets pending. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 21, 2006 Author Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System Leeds v Watford..no bet. Watford are now favourites, but the system backed them as the outsider of 4, so to lay them over 90 mins & hope they still win promotion would be pushing our luck a bit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 21, 2006 Author Share Posted May 21, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System The play off results are almost impossible to predict, so must be very difficult for the bookies to price up,with often a team who were largely unfancied, or the lowest league position eventually gaining promotion. Championship Play offs: Back Watford 12.5pts @ 4.5 (Betfair):clap Returns 53.60pts(commision deducted) with Barnsley pending,the bank moves into the black... Start bank 100pts current bank 112.23pts bets won 2 bets lost 2 strike rate 50% bets pending 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 25, 2006 Author Share Posted May 25, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System weekend bets:90 min result) Swansea v Barnsley. layed Swansea 8.33pts @ 2.5(12.5pts liability) Cheltenham v Grimsby.layed Grimsby 7.91pts @ 2.58(12.5pts liability) Pending bet: Barnsley to win div 1 play-offs 12.5pts @ 4.3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 29, 2006 Author Share Posted May 29, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System sorry.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 29, 2006 Author Share Posted May 29, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System weekend bets:90 min result) Swansea v Barnsley. layed Swansea 8.33pts @ 2.5:nana returns 7.95pts(commision deducted) Cheltenham v Grimsby.layed Grimsby 7.91pts @ 2.58:nana returns 7.55pts(commision deducted) Pending bet: Barnsley to win div 1 play-offs 12.5pts @ 4.3:nana returns 53.75pts(quote) An incredible weekend for the system returns 69.25pts making the closing bank 181.48pts. full update to follow.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted May 29, 2006 Share Posted May 29, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System Great going Bedlam. Looking forward to more profit in 11 months time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted May 30, 2006 Author Share Posted May 30, 2006 Re: Simple Play-off System Thank You David. I'm delighted with the results of this system, as it was as much based on a hunch as anything else. Whereas my other play-off system (draws) was tried,tested & proven. I was very fotunate that 2 of my outsiders won their play-offs at pretty measly odds. I can't expect that to happen every year, so I have plans for a few changes for 11 months time. But the basis of the system is sound: back outsiders & lay favourites, as the nature of the play-offs & the similarity in ability of the teams, make for difficulties in odds setting. final scores: starting bank 100pts finishing bank 181.48pts total staked 87.5pts total bets 7 winning bets 5 losing bets 2 strike rate 71.42% yield 93.12% profit 81.48pts:cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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