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ATP Munich/Estoril & WTA Warsaw 1st-7th May


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Could May be the month of Mr I?:unsure Exams, Birthday, F1 and some good Tennis. We'll see.... Munich Draw: 1) CORIA, Guillermo ARG v Qualifier Qualifier v BRACCIALI, Daniele ITA Qualifier v RAMIREZ HIDALGO, Ruben ESP STARACE, Potito ITA v (5) ROCHUS, Olivier BEL (4) HAAS, Tommy GER v KARLOVIC, Ivo CRO Qualifier v PHAU, Bjorn GER (WC) GREUL, Simon GER v PASHANSKI, Boris SCG MELZER, Jurgen AUT v (7) YOUZHNY, Mikhail RUS (6) SRICHAPHAN, Paradorn THA v MONACO, Juan ARG VIK, Robin CZE v SCHUETTLER, Rainer GER (WC) WASKE, Alexander GER v MAYER, Florian GER PAVEL, Andrei ROM v (3) NIEMINEN, Jarkko FIN (8) SERRA, Florent FRA v SODERLING, Robin SWE TIPSAREVIC, Janko SCG v VLIEGEN, Kristof BEL (WC) BECK, Andreas GER v HERNYCH, Jan CZE KOHLSCHREIBER, Philipp GER v (2) ANCIC, Mario CRO Mmm to be honest I fancy Haas and Nieminen who are the market favourites. Need to see who the qualifiers;) are in the top quarter as Coria is very weak. Don't like the 4th quarter at all. Estoril draw: Nalbandian vs Mahut Q vs Wang Q vs Gil Q vs Tursunov Monfils vs Sabau Marin vs Portas Dlouhy vs Gimelstob Sluiter vs Massu Moya vs Saretta Simon vs Zib Garcia-Lopez vs Q Berlocq vs Robredo Rochus vs Muller Lapentti vs Almagro Safin vs Q Spadea vs Davydenko Nalbandian looks to have a very good half, but will have to see how good the qualifiers;) are. Bottom quarter looks awful with Almagro, Safin and Davydenko in there. Nothing on the outrights for me at the moment.

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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Yeah, Haas and Nieminen look the best prospects at Munich. Not a whole lot of value though. Especially Sicknote Haas who has a tricky first round match. Karlovic has found a bit of form on clay recently and the surface at Munich is quite fast I believe. I'll probably just lay Coria who looks a short price considering his serving gremlins. Robredo looks a decent value bet at Estoril considering he's roughly twice the price of Almagro. The other main players in that half of the draw are woefully out of form.

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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

SportTennis
EventATP Munich
SelectionGRUEL v Pashanski
Strength10/10
Date01/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price>William Hill @ 2.00 (Back)
ReasoningI think the German wildcard is worth a go in this one. He came into the public domain in Miami, coming through qualifying then beating Srichaphan, Hrbaty, Henman, and taking a set off Roddick. But looking at his record, he plays the vast majority of his tennis on clay. Since that run in Miami he's had a little break and then reached the final of a clay challenger in Switzerland. I think coming in with some good form and playing at home he's in a good situation here. Pashanski is a player I like, and he was looking solid in South America, but in Europe he's struggling, only winning one match in two tournaments and a loss against Llodra which was very very poor. Generally his record in Europe has been very good, especially at Challenger level, but I don't think he's playing too well at the moment. I think Gruel should be a slight favourtie in this one.
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Robredo and Simon have pulled out of Estoril. Really opens that quarter up for Moya. Problem is he is very inconsistant and looks to be on a bit of a downer. Also 4th quarter very tough so will need to win a big match just to secure EW money. At 15s not for me.

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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

Tip Detail
SportTennis
EventTipsarevic - Vliegen
SelectionVliegen
Strength10/10
Date01/05/2006
Bookmaker/PriceCentrebet @ 1.40 (Back)
ReasoningTipsarevic is really poor at the moment.He is rather hard courts player and don't feel godd at clay.In previous tournaments in Casablanca and Houston he easilly lost his matches in 1st rounds against not so good players.He is rather prefering faster courts.Vliegen on the other hand played really good tournament at Monte Carlo where he won against Nieminen and Hernych.In Barcelona he lost to Ferrero.Vliegen seems to be better choice here.
Tip Detail
SportTennis
EventKohlschreiber/Mayer - Mertinak/Pala
SelectionMertinak/Pala
Strength10/10
Date01/05/2006
Bookmaker/PriceGamebookers @ 1.53 (Back)
ReasoningMerinak/Pala are favourites for me here.They are for sure better double pair.Last week they made it to the QF of Barcelona beating for example Elrich/Ram who are pretty good pair.Germans are not typicall double pair and they are rather single players.I think that they will focuse mainly on single game.Odds should be a little lower for me here.
Tip Detail
SportTennis
EventGreul - Pashanski
SelectionGreul
Strength10/10
Date01/05/2006
Bookmaker/PricePinnacle Sports @ 1.90 (Back)
ReasoningGreul is playing on his own soil and he will have crowd on his side.He played really good tournament at Miami and after that he made it to the final of Chiasso Challenger played on clay.His form seems to be in uptrend.Pashanski on the other hand is playing really crappy tennis now.He losed in Monte Carlo to Llodra 3:6 0:6.And before that he was also playing rally poor.His last good performances was at the end of February so pretty long ago.They've meet already this year in sydney and then Greul won in two straight sets.
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

SportTennis
EventATP Estoril
SelectionPORTAS 2-0 v Marin
Strength10/10
Date02/05/2006
Bookmaker/PriceCentrebet @ 2.05 (Back)
ReasoningQuite like the chances of a 2-0 here, especially when offered at odds against. Marin has been on a dreadful run this year, and has had some shocking losses. The last 3 tournaments he has lost to Marach 6-4 6-1, Philippoussis 6-1 6-1 and Mathieu 7-6 6-2 all on clay and all in the first round. Portas looks to have found some form, coming through a few tough qualifying tournaments and last week winning a couple of rounds in Barcelona before losing to Nieminen who was playing very well. H2H is 6-2 to Portas, winning the last 6 meetings, all on clay and 5 of them in straight sets. Not much else to add, but I think this should be slightly odds on.
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Back to sticking up post after not having done so for quite awhile as I'd been busy with some stuff - nevertheless, just as well there's a double which looks splendid value from Munich... 40pts Haas-Nieminen (1.60 @ Ladbrokes) I don't quite understand how the books have priced these 2 up, but whatever the case, they certainly look too good to resist. Karlovic can't serve to save his life on clay as his pretty woeful claycourt record down the years would testify. While Haas is no claycourt expert, you've got to feel the fact he remains a very decent player on that surface should just about prove enough, especially in view of the rich vein of form he has been in coming into 2006 after finally laying the ghost of his wrist and shoulder injuries to rest. (Before anyone decides to jump the gun, I'm fully aware the h2h between the pair stand at 1-1 - and believe it or not, Karlovic won his encounter on clay :eek - however, it's just as important to note that encounter took place in 2004 when Haas was largely still plagued by injuries) Similarly, Pavel is another overrated player. Anyone who saw how hard Nieminen pushed Nadal last week in Barcelona will hardly need any convincing this is a no-contest so long as the Finn turns up at 50% the level he demonstrated against Nadal, nevermind the fact Pavel made the final here - having beaten what was effectively a string of mugs - before being stopped by Nalbandian last year. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 100.00pts Profit/Loss : 0.00pts

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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

... I don't quite understand how the books have priced these 2 up, but whatever the case, they certainly look too good to resist. Karlovic can't serve to save his life on clay as his pretty woeful claycourt record down the years would testify. While Haas is no claycourt expert, you've got to feel the fact he remains a very decent player on that surface should just about prove enough, especially in view of the rich vein of form he has been in coming into 2006 after finally laying the ghost of his wrist and shoulder injuries to rest. (Before anyone decides to jump the gun, I'm fully aware the h2h between the pair stand at 1-1 - and believe it or not, Karlovic won his encounter on clay :eek - however, it's just as important to note that encounter took place in 2004 when Haas was largely still plagued by injuries) ...
I usually don't bet on tennis outside of Grand Slams, but are you sure he's shaken that ghost? He pulled out of the semi in Houston in early April because of an injury. Has he came around since then? Any information on how he has pulled up? Haas isn't the best person to pit against big servers, and even though were on clay - Ivo is a big server. If I recall correctly Ivo was only broken twice last week, to Wawrinka and lost in the QF. Took out Davy in that tourny as well - and Korolev - who took out Moya. The problem with Ivo is that he tends to not break serves all that much. Have you seen how many tiebreakers he's been in this year. I don't know if there is a record/stat on that but he'd sure be close to having the most No money involved on my end, except a small lay of Haas to win. But don't be suprised if Ivo gives him a quick ticket home.
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

I usually don't bet on tennis outside of Grand Slams, but are you sure he's shaken that ghost? He pulled out of the semi in Houston in early April because of an injury. Has he came around since then? Any information on how he has pulled up? Haas isn't the best person to pit against big servers, and even though were on clay - Ivo is a big server. If I recall correctly Ivo was only broken twice last week, to Wawrinka and lost in the QF. Took out Davy in that tourny as well - and Korolev - who took out Moya. The problem with Ivo is that he tends to not break serves all that much. Have you seen how many tiebreakers he's been in this year. I don't know if there is a record/stat on that but he'd sure be close to having the most No money involved on my end, except a small lay of Haas to win. But don't be suprised if Ivo gives him a quick ticket home.
I'm not talking about little niggles and lack of match fitness or slight injuries which will be gone in a week or two here - Haas missed the entire 2003 with a string of wrist and shoulder/back injuries which really curtailed his progress in the ATP for sometime. Even upon his return, he obviously didn't look half the player he was at his prime prior to the injury. That said, Haas has still done reasonably well this year having pushed Federer twice(including beating him once in the Kooyong Exhibition) at the turn of the year and has been coming into his own. While I'm not building Haas up to be a world beater by any stretch of the imagination, I certainly can't see myself making a case for someone who can do nothing but serve(and even whose serves are literally useless on clay given his dearth of other arsenal available) - and Karlovic's claycourt record pretty much speaks for itself(claycourt career W-L of 9-20 and 3-3 for 2006 as opposed to Haas' career W-L of 87-53 and 2006's W-L of 3-1)...
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

I'm not talking about little niggles and lack of match fitness or slight injuries which will be gone in a week or two here - Haas missed the entire 2003 with a string of wrist and shoulder/back injuries which really curtailed his progress in the ATP for sometime. Even upon his return, he obviously didn't look half the player he was at his prime prior to the injury. That said, Haas has still done reasonably well this year having pushed Federer twice(including beating him once in the Kooyong Exhibition) at the turn of the year and has been coming into his own. While I'm not building Haas up to be a world beater by any stretch of the imagination, I certainly can't see myself making a case for someone who can do nothing but serve(and even whose serves are literally useless on clay given his dearth of other arsenal available) - and Karlovic's claycourt record pretty much speaks for itself(claycourt career W-L of 9-20 and 3-3 for 2006 as opposed to Haas' career W-L of 87-53 and 2006's W-L of 3-1)...
I really meant to come back and debate this further before the actual match was played. So I won't say too much as I don't want to come across pompus. Haas beat an injured Fed if I recall correctly, and everyone pushed Fed in the first three or four rounds of the Aus Open. (again, from memory). So I wouldn't use Fed as a guage on how well Haas has done. Though his last ten has looked impressive, and he's won quite a few rounds in Munich before. The injury in Houston is what worried me. And I can't defend Ivo's record, nor can I defend his style of play. I can say that regardless of surface the serve is holding him up quite well. I don't have the Haas/Ivo stats in front of me, but I wouldn't doubt that his serve wasn't broken again today. Which would mean that out of the last 78 service games on clay, he's been broken twice. Congrats on Nieminen! Side note : I won't be betting on it, but I kinda like Gremelmayr beating Coria tonight. I doubt it'll happen, but with Corias dramas on server coupled with the fact that Gremelmayr has already played three matches here on this surface in qualifications... its possible. Hell, most of the seeded players are gone:eyes 3/1 to me represents fair value, can find 5/1 easily enough.
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Just noticed something that I'd like to point out. As you probably know my stats for Tennis are horrific on Sports-Punter, here they are: Tipster History for Mr Intensity - Tennis

Sport
Total Stakes2618.90ptsAverage Back Price3.01
Total Profit-243.42ptsAverage Lay Price3.04
Strike Rate48.78%View Performance Graph
Yield-9.29%
I've been through it and on Outrights I'm -143.42pts exactly:eek :eek :eek That's absolutely shocking, as I've only placed about 24 bets staking about 200pts. So not counting the outrights I'm only -100pts having staked about 2438.9pts. So, NO MORE ****ING OUTRIGHTS:wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall Anyway, Gruel wins a marathon 6-3 6-7 [bad light stopped play] 7-6 and Portas is 5-3 up against Marin:hope
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Gremelmayr does the deed as well! Man Mr. I, I should have followed your staking and walked away with over 80pts on the night.:rollin Nieminen looked pretty good considering he was playing Pavel, whom I consider a pretty solid clay courter and a tough opponent to get as a 3 seed. Though on outright, I'd lay him. There is going to be some hungry kids in there wanting this, and with having 5 seeded players knocked out in rd 32. There's a real chance.

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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

Karlovic can't serve to save his life on clay as his pretty woeful claycourt record down the years would testify. 22 Aces today......think his life is safe!:cheers Big fan of Karlovic as playing out of his skin. Had a fantastic barca tournament and has great chance of going far in the BMW Open. Got him to win tourni 13.5 @ betfair. Good shouts Mr I for the first round.
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

Good shouts Mr I for the first round.
Cheers mate, good luck this week:ok
Side note : I won't be betting on it, but I kinda like Gremelmayr beating Coria tonight. I doubt it'll happen, but with Corias dramas on server coupled with the fact that Gremelmayr has already played three matches here on this surface in qualifications... its possible. Hell, most of the seeded players are gone:eyes 3/1 to me represents fair value, can find 5/1 easily enough.
Kick ass mate:notworthy :notworthy :notworthy. Should have had him in my qualifiers system:sad
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

SportTennis
EventATP Estoril
SelectionPORTAS v Monfils
Strength10/10
Date03/05/2006
Bookmaker/PriceStan James @ 2.62 (Back)
ReasoningReally don't think Monfils should be so short, in fact, not even sure he should be favourite. Monfils has only won 3 matches since the first week of the year, and still doesn't look to have much confidence. He beat Galvini last week before losing to Almagro which is fair enough but still doesn't mean he's playing well. He beat Sabau 6-1 6-2 in the first round but he is pathetic and I'd read nothing into that result. Old man Portas looks to be playing some decent stuff again, coming through some tough qualifying tournaments, winning a couple of rounds last week, and taking care of Marin in the first round for me here. He's got so much experience on clay and should be able to use that to frustrate Monfils - much as he did to Berdych last week perhpas? Last year Monfils showed some game on clay, but this year he can't be trusted at all, and in a small tournament like this he is very opposable.
SportTennis
EventATP Estoril
SelectionSAFIN v Davydenko
Strength10/10
Date03/05/2006
Bookmaker/PriceStan James @ 1.66 (Back)
ReasoningLet's take a risk on the unpredictable Safin. Last week, as predicted, he had a let down and a very bad performance against Mathieu. However, he was coming off a very tough week in Valencia and an ankle injury so it's not something to get too worried about. He was playing very well in Valencia and in the first round here looked to be playing alright against Fognini and this is what I choose to focus on. Davydenko has been dreadful of late, having a four match losing run after his Davis Cup problems against France. He managed to snap this in the first round, but that was against Spadea who is awful on the European clay and in bad form. I don't read much into that win and think he's still playing badly. Safins shot making should cause him a lot of problems just as it has twice already this year on hard courts, with Safin winning a couple of 3 setters on his comeback a couple of months ago. You may worry that these two big names will be looking towards next week in Rome, but they both have good records here; Safin reaching the final last year, Davydenko winning in 2003, so I think we'll see a straight up match, and thus I fancy Safin.
I also half-fancy Monaco against Vik who I think is really poor on clay, but I'll wait to see if I can get 1.66ish on it;)
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Mr I: Portas is available @2.9 on Betfair. I'm having a few quid on that. Monfils started the year in superb form in Doha but since then he's had a bit of a shocker. I watched Monfils unravel against Rochus the other week in Monte Carlo. Hope Portas was also watching! Portas is a 'clay court specialist' and will certainly fancy his chances.

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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

Mr I: Portas is available @2.9 on Betfair. I'm having a few quid on that. Monfils started the year in superb form in Doha but since then he's had a bit of a shocker. I watched Monfils unravel against Rochus the other week in Monte Carlo. Hope Portas was also watching! Portas is a 'clay court specialist' and will certainly fancy his chances.
Aye good luck mate:ok. Best price is Expekt @ 2.92 with 2.62 being one of the shortest prices available:sad Betfair are 1.70 on Safin with 1.66 being the best bookie price so at least I got a decent price there:cow
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May

SportTennis
EventEstoril Open
SelectionGarcia-Lopez v Berlocq
Strength5/10
Date03/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 1.45 (Back)
ReasoningReasoning:5/10 1: Berlocq is in abysmal form, only won 1 of the last 9 games. 2: Quite close in the atp rankings and Garcia playing better, will be close game but imo Berlocq will lose. ONLY 5/10 so small flutter on this one. ==============================
SportTennis
EventEstoril Open
SelectionMULLER v Lapentti
Strength10/10
Date03/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 1.64 (Back)
Reasoning1:Lapentti is dropping down the rankings like a stone, no where near his previous form. 2:Lapentti is 126 v 71 Muller in the atp rankings 3:Lapentti has lost all 5 games so far. 4:MULLER is young up and coming german that looks fresh enough and skillfull enough imo to win this match up comfortably. ============
SportTennis
EventEstoril Open
SelectionSAFIN v Davydenko
Strength10/10
Date03/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 1.70 (Back)
Reasoning1:Davydenko may be 2nd seed for this tournament but didnt help him get slayed in round 1 of the Barca Open when he was 2nd seed then. 2:Davydenko struggled against Spadea and limped into next round, so form questionable. 3:H2H Safin winning 2-0 4:Good odds for Safin who is far more experianced and playing some good tennis. 5:Mr I agrees. Nuff said.
======================
SportTennis
EventEstoril Open
SelectionMOYA v Marcaccio
Strength10/10
Date03/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 1.23 (Back)
ReasoningBanker for the day! 1:Moya is 36 ATP V 406 ATP 2:Marcaccio is only a year younger than the vastly experianced Carlos Moya...have you ever heard of Marcaccio??? 3:Moyo was up against an exceptional player in Korolev in Barca and played well. 4:Not that it matters much in this tournament judging by some of the other results, but Moya is seeded 6 whilst Marcaccio has plain gone to seed. Nuff said. 100/100
===============================
SportTennis
EventEstoril Open
SelectionNALBANDIAN v Chardy
Strength10/10
Date03/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 1.07 (Back)
ReasoningBank, Bank, Bank..... 1:I normally lump a lot for a little gain, and this certainly looks like one of those matches. 2:NALBANDIAN struggled slightly in his previous match but he is up against someone who is 522 in the rankings vs the Number One seed for the tournament. 3:Chardy was "lucky loser" coming into this tournament and had hard game against another nobody Wang Yeu-Tzuoo......exactly!!! 4:Should be comfortable win here for NALBANDIAN but as Nadal has proved, upsets are there lying in wait.....but not this time! Nuff said.
============================
SportTennis
EventEstoril Open
SelectionTURSUNOV v Gil
Strength10/10
Date03/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 1.34 (Back)
Reasoning1:TURSUNOV is 5th Seed for tournament and blew away first round player. 2: 33 Atp V 246...to much gulf in class. 3: Gil had hard first round tie against Luque and will not be up to the task against the Russian. Nuff said.
Hope everyone has a good day :hope
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Monaco has to represent value @ 1.62, anyone who has taken out Horna when Horna was on fire is worth a look in my opinion. Vik has a 5-5 record on clay in his last 10, but of those wins Mathieu retired injured, woeful Lapentti, and Luczak who isn't the strongest player in general, let alone on clay. He also seemed to struggle in his last match, and I'd be suprised if he even takes this to a third set.

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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Good luck with those happy, just one thing:

4:MULLER is young up and coming german that looks fresh enough and skillfull enough imo to win this match up comfortably.
He's from Luxembourg mate, close to Germany:lol. I was looking at that one as Lapentti struggled so much against my qualifier, but Muller sucks on clay IMO so I'm leaving alone.
5:Mr I agrees. Nuff said.
Damn right :lol :clap :clap
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Re: ATP Munich/Estoril 1st-7th May Everything says that Massu should bounce all over Gimelstob, but I'm going to go Gimelstob's way. Massu has played a lot of tennis lately, and Gimelstob has been resting as of late. @ 5+ for Gimelstob to win this, I'll take the bait. If Gimelstob can get one set off of Massu, I think he has a chance. Kohlschreiber over Hernych seems like a sound bet Portas and Davy would be my other picks. Portas suprised me with his play last week, and I'd back him to continue that, Davy has a chance against Safin. I see that match as 50/50 and in doing so, backing the dog. No actual money on my end, warming up for the French.

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