AFL - Round 5

[Ashtee]

Event	Richmond v Carlton
Selection	Carlton
Strength	7/10
Date	28/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.32 (Back)
Reasoning	Carlton drop in class and get their chance here. Richmond should be tested after a nice win over a very mediocre opponent but are off a double traveller on just the 6-day break. Carlton have the full 7-day break and will regain some strength to their line up. I rate them the better playing squad (Rich: N. Brown unlikely + injuries) although Richmond may carry forward better morale. Carlton winless last three, so providing the hunger and motivation is up and Pagan sends them out well organised (a bit of undisciplined play crept in last week once the game appeared over) then they are a very solid chance indeed. Last weeks form-lines through Brisbane and Hawthorn are both being incorrectly assessed I believe, so I’m not surprised at all to see the overs on Carlton. My rating: Carlton 8/11

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 5

Event	Sydney v Geelong
Selection	Geelong
Strength	7/10
Date	29/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.92 (Back)
Reasoning	Geelong have lost the last two but the season intent is obviously heightened, as apparent by early form (despite injuries) and in just the one point loss to WBD, on paper a game they had no right to be so close. Kingsley may miss again, however Scarlett back is a huge in. Off LW they now have the opportunity to modify a makeshift line-up. Sydney, while fitness (just 6-day here) and skills will be improving, are yet to show the required amount of hunger. They are 1-3, so need a win yet could not overcome the injury ravaged Melbourne LW, so I cannot rate their chances enough over Geelong who surely will be switched on. My rating: Geelong 8/13

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Hey I like both your calls here, may follow your lead. Will wait for Friday..! Mat.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 5

Event	Hawthorn v Essendon
Selection	Hawthorn
Strength	7/10
Date	30/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.67 (Back)
Reasoning	Not a lot between these two IMO although Hawthorn are showing the more promise. Big issue is Essendon on only five days rest. Teams clearly struggle to cope with it and added they have to come-down from a big stage game. Hawthorn benefit from a nine day break after a tough month. Their form is excellent so normally I’d be looking for them to be a little ‘off’ compared to a desperate Essendon. Looks like the dons may have used that one up Tuesday and I find it too hard to fancy them here. My rating; Hawthorn 4/9

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Like Carlton and Hawthorn, Ash, but depending on the side Geelong name, they still may be very much under full strength. (Obviously Scarlett back, but would prefer Playfair and/or Kingsley to play as well) Would also prefer Waite to be back for the Blues. At this stage I'll be on; Freo +15.5 (although I'm still struggling to believe you rate their squad as "the best", when I don't think it's even in the top half!) Collingwood -10.5 (5 day break tough, but should roll on) Melbourne -9.5 Crows -13.5 (Time for my Doggies to hit an early wall I think :()

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Couple of quick bits, more to come... Had a look at the 6 day breaks and see if there is a trend. There isn't. If I've got them all, looks like teams with a 6 day break have won 8 games out of 14. One of the losses was a 2 point margin in the WC v Crows game. Considering that there is 9 teams playing on 6 day breaks (two with 5), there can be some really tired players this week! The Blues vs Tigers game is a lot closer than at first sight. Sadly the odds aren't presenting that fact. It's fair to say that the Tigers have had a tough road trip and are finally home. West Coast away - Brisie away is probably the hardest back to back games you can have in AFL IMO. Brisie obviously aren't the team they used to be but the Gabba (travel, climate) is. There may be a little bias here, but I really don't think that the 1-3 record represents where Richmond is as a football team. Sure, they were underbaked when playing the Dogs, though you'd have to admit that the Dogs look like they're going to rock 7 or 8 teams this year in the same fashion. Kilda was a pretty close game, and Brown's rush back made it seemt that Richmond was playing with 21 players, not 22. Thursfield (knee), Schulz (AC joint) adding more injuries in play bringing them down to 18. 11 point loss is a solid effort. Richmond have played what you could consider 3 out of the 5 top sides on the competition already, and that is reflected in the table. Richmond will also have Cleve Hughes come in for a debut some where in the forward line (flank, full, centre half) - and I've seen this kid live. He can play - little light, but solid with the ball. Good boot too. Looking ahead on Richmond's behalf, they very well could be 4-4 at the end of 8. Carlton on the other hand has a chance against the present day dons, but kilda and collingwood should take care of them easily. I'll do first quarter predictions in a further post, but I'll probably stay out, or throw a supporter bet towards the Tigers. Centrebet still has them @ 1.65, betfair has them at 1.77 currently. Give me 1.80 and I'll probably take more on, to me the sides are even, and I want to pay accordingly.

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Taz, don't count those dogs out yet! IMO, this is one of those rare moments when the Dogs are going to represent value, and the Crows are actually vulnerable. Here's my reasoning. Brett Burton as you may know, is out. He may be classed as a utility player by the AFL.com, but he's an important 2.1 (goals.behinds) for the Crows. 19 disposals and 2 tackles a game is something that the Crows would have liked against a very quick Dogs team. Strike 1 Crows have a lot of niggling injuries that I feel will come into play here. Ben Hudson (knee), Darren Pfeiffer (back), Jonathon Griffin (back), Tyson Edwards (calf), Ian Perrie (knee) are all test or under consideration. The Dogs had a few small injuries against the Cats and all three are currently slated to play. All injuries being leg, back related doesn't help a side that is going to have to tackle and chase the Dogs around the ground. Strike 2 IMO there is a few games a year that you have a sense that you must win. The Crows have been in 2 so far. NAB final, and against West Coast. The NAB cup is debatable, but noone can argue the intent to win was there from onset, and they couldn't. Same with the game against WC. Strike 3 I know AAMI is one place you don't go in betting against lightly. I'm not, the Dogs at full time 7/10

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 5

Taz, don't count those dogs out yet! IMO, this is one of those rare moments when the Dogs are going to represent value, and the Crows are actually vulnerable. Here's my reasoning. Brett Burton as you may know, is out. He may be classed as a utility player by the AFL.com, but he's an important 2.1 (goals.behinds) for the Crows. 19 disposals and 2 tackles a game is something that the Crows would have liked against a very quick Dogs team. Strike 1 Crows have a lot of niggling injuries that I feel will come into play here. Ben Hudson (knee), Darren Pfeiffer (back), Jonathon Griffin (back), Tyson Edwards (calf), Ian Perrie (knee) are all test or under consideration. The Dogs had a few small injuries against the Cats and all three are currently slated to play. All injuries being leg, back related doesn't help a side that is going to have to tackle and chase the Dogs around the ground. Strike 2 IMO there is a few games a year that you have a sense that you must win. The Crows have been in 2 so far. NAB final, and against West Coast. The NAB cup is debatable, but noone can argue the intent to win was there from onset, and they couldn't. Same with the game against WC. Strike 3 I know AAMI is one place you don't go in betting against lightly. I'm not, the Dogs at full time 7/10

Yeah mate, you make a couple of decent points, but as for Adelaide's injuries... Hudson has been out from day 1, and won't pay all season. Pfeiffer and Griffen are absolute non-factors. Perrie is definately out with a posterior cruciate...decent loss. Edwards was out last week and I'd suggest is VERY doubtful for this week aswell. The BIG injury news today is that Ricciuto has done a hamstring and may well miss. That will be a huge loss (along with Burton) to their scoring power. (PS on Burton...he may av. 19 possessions a game, but he turns over about half of them!) Will have to wait until closer to game time obviously, but now I get the feeling that the 'under' will be a strong play....if Roo is out that is. I've seen a couple of things this week that suggest Adelaide will really try to shut the Dogs running game down...unlike Geelong last week where they were able to waltz through the centre on a number of occasions un-pressured. Another thing is that I don't have the complete faith that the Dogs are "for real"...Beaten Richmond, Melbourne, Essendon (with no Lloyd)...3 teams who will in all likelyhood finish in the bottom 6. Beat Geelong who had 4-5 of their most important players out...so I'm going the other way, and suggesting that we are over-valued, with a start to the year that maybe isn't as strong as it first looks. Richmond?...Can't agree either. Last weeks win says alot more about Brisbane than about the Tiges...Remember they did the same thing (win @ Brisbane) in rd. 9 last season, before winning just 3 more games (of 13) to finish 12th. St. Kilda are playing very poorly right now, so I would take that "close" game with a grain of salt...although I do agree with you about the injuries in that game. The other thing is refelcted in the stats so far...Richmond have had the fewest inside 50's in the comp. at just 44 p/game!...even had 2 less than Brisbane last week... ...They've also allowed the 3rd most, so their midfield just isn't getting their hands on the ball enough. Yes, these are skewed somewhat by the decent teams they've played, but like I said, I think last weeks game tells us a lot more than the final score would suggest. If Waite is back I'll be all over Carlton at a good price...They did win the round 18 clash last season by 35 points as pretty big underdogs (having lost 11 straight previously!) And, while I'm on the stats, I've jumped off the Melbourne ship, and decided that the Kangas might not be such a bad thing after all. Melbourne are av'ing a whopping 10 less inside 50's per game than their opp! Last week's win was incredibly "lucky" (well, relied on Sydney's lack of scoring)...they had 15 less inside 50's and 5 less shots! Surprisingly (to me anyway!), the Kanga's had more inside 50's than both Geelong and West Coast, despite losing the games, because a) They struggle to score themselves, and b) Couldn't stop them from scoring. (Obviously!) ...but, Geelong and West Coast (and even Collingwood) are very strong defensive teams...only Sydney, St. Kilda and Adelaide allowed less shots at goal than these two teams last season...and only Adelaide were better defensively (Crows allowed a shot every 2.29 entries into 50, Geelong 2.07, WC 2.13)... ...so, being held to 21, 21 and 19 shots in the last 3 weeks insn't exactly surprising...but in week 1, against a poor Port team they kicked 19.14. Melbourne have allowed at least 27 shots in all 4 games so far, and haven't topped 100 yet for the season, so I think the Kanga's could be a very live dog. The only problem I see is that Melbourne won easily as 1.60 favs in Canberra last season, and 9 of the last 10 meetings have been won by the fav, so the books seem to have a pretty good handle on them both. Anyway...will decide a bit later on... ...and, while I've been prattling on here, the Crows are down to -9.5! :lol Oh!...If you guys don't know, there is also a strong rumour that Hird will be out on Sunday. I might grab the -10.5 now, as it is sure to rise if he doesn't play. :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Kangaroos lost their last three, a couple badly, but when you consider the losses were to Geelong, Collingwood and West Coast, then this is now a major step down in grade. All things considered I have that game evens. At AAMI Mattner and Edwards are big ins. Should be an interesting coaching dual. Will be interesting to see how dogs get their hands on it coz Crows are superb in close and set up well. Dogs are right in I notice but I havn't been that keen all week. Taza, Freo's list is at least right up there I believe. Just that they're a crap side ATM. Remember doggies bit over a season ago. Couldn't hit the side of barn from 25 metres. If things arn't right with the coach then on the pattock this is what we get. Same Richmond and Adelaide that year (2004). Freo are badly struggling for genuine motivation and confidence I believe and admittably the playing style is sus. I'm also thinking about playing them this week because Saints style suits better than Crows who really did exploit their pathetic first half. At sizeable odds they're worth a thought, they have the playing list if a team lets them. Saints I've been a knock for from the start. The swish looking Bris win needs to be backed up with something because Bris were dead on the five day break and of course are dead. Bit of an ageing midfield and guys like Ball, Clarke, Harvey perhaps still need to run into a bit of form after their problems. Powell not there, Black now plays for the opp and Montagna and Fiora are deficient. Relying so much on Dal Santo and Hayes. Would have liked to see Haselby in tho. Some showers forecast which is something else Freo never like, not that Saints are brilliant in it either, not that it gets tested much these days. Might wait and think more on this one.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 5 West Coast -18.5 at HT. Brisbane are just about shot, but I prefer the HT bet herre with the smaller h'cap. The Lions last 6 away games read; Rd. 16, 2005. @ WC. Lost by 23...down by 35 at the half. *** Rd. 18, 2005. @ Dogs (DOME). Lost by 28...34 down at HT. Rd. 20, 2005. @ Sydney. Lost by 84...50 down at HT. Rd. 22, 2005. @ St. Kilda (DOME). Lost by 139...59 down at HT Rd. 1, 2006. @ Geelong. Lost by 77...46 down at HT. Rd. 3, 2006. @ St. Kilda (DOME). Lost by 37...35 down at HT. *** I watched a replay of this game yesterday and West Coast jumped out to a very early (1st quarter) 40 point lead, where the margin stayed for pretty much the rest of the game. The 23 points is very deceiving, as Brisbane kicked the last 4 goals of the game in the last 8-9 minutes...It was 47 points with about 10 minutes to play. Brisbane are living on reputation alone. They have a lot of young, inexperienced players, and the older players are all strugling for fitness and form. I think West Coast will cover the game -39.5 easily enough, but just incase of a repeat, the HT line looks the safest option.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Full 180!!... Western Bulldogs +10.5 News out of Adelaide today is that Ricciuto is almost certain to miss...and Thompson didn't train today either. I did a quick add up of the Crows scores this season, and it turns out that Ricciuto, Burton and Perrie have kicked 47% of their total score so far!!! Also, of the 16 goals that the Crows kicked on the Doggies last season at Adelaide, Burton kicked 3, Roo 1, Thompson 1. (Welsh 3 and Hudson 1 who are both out also) It's a big hole!! The Bulldogs have won 9 out of their last 10, and score 98+ in eachof those games...admittedly all of those games have been in Melbourne, and 8 at the Dome...but even so, scoring has never really been a problem at Adelaide. They have scored 86+ in 8 of the last 10 there, but allowed an av. of 126!! The Doggies haven't allowed 100 yet this season (Av. 83), and with their injuries, it is tough to see the Crows scoring significantly in this game. The Crows are just 5/5 this number at home in their last 10...inc. a 2 point loss to West Coast in rd. 2. The Bulldogs have very similar attack and defense effeiciency to WC, but average nearly 7 more inside 50's per game than their opp, compared to West Coast's 1. I just don't see Adealide scoring enough to really punish the Dogs here. Either a close game, or a Dogs win for me.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Taking the Kangaroos to win @ 2.40 for the reasons above. So, all up; Dogs +10.5 Kangas (2.40) West Coast -18.5 at HT. Freo +16.5 Collingwood -10.5 Good Luck guys. Nice work on the Carlton odds too, Ashtee...into 1.95 here now!

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 5

Taking the Kangaroos to win @ 2.40 for the reasons above.

Me too :ok

Event	Melbourne v Kangaroos
Selection	Kangaroos
Strength	7/10
Date	29/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 2.40 (Back)
Reasoning	Melbourne have forced changes. Davey selected but I wonder if he is OK?? Moloney in but likely still under-prepared. These teams face-off about equal in talent. Melbourne are enjoying a patch of renewed form. They were fully extended last week with no one left on bench. Now a 6-day break off the double traveller. Kangaroos also travelled last week and are on a 2 x 6. Lost their last three, a couple badly, but when you consider the losses were to Geelong, Collingwood and West Coast, then this is now a major step down in grade. Kangaroos to perhaps be the one this time to draw on a bit of extra hunger. My rating: Evens.

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Prices ended up evening out quite well, ended up taking 7/10 (2.10) on Carlton winning the first quarter (Wallace never goes into a match up well). Spending the returns off of that for a 2/10 (6.75) Carlton/Richmond ht/ft and a 3/10 Richmond win.(1.95) My luck Richmond will win the 1st and get bombed from there, all the same I can't back Carlton on this one. GL!

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Well, Carlton easily won the 1st, so I'm in profit either way, now the bias picks can come in!:lol End of the 2nd, down by a point 2/1 still alive, peeved that the Nanny is on over playing this game live. :@ End of game - The boys sure looked tired out there, travel seemed to really caught up with them. Glad it was a close game, odds ended up representing well. Should have been a 40 point win, but I'll settle for the 9. Hopefully it's not a sign for things to come - though I'm assuming it has more to do with mental and physical drain than anything else. Hopefully a 7 day break and Johnson pulls up well to get them into a 3rd win against the 'dons next week. It's back at the MCG so travel isn't included. +20.5 pts

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 5

Event	Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
Selection	Western Bulldogs
Strength	7/10
Date	29/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	BetandWin @ 2.35 (Back)
Reasoning	Havn’t been that keen all week about the dogs as they’re due for a loss and last two wins were not all that decisive. Now Adelaide with mounting injury concerns including that Ricciuto unlikely. They’ve also had a very tough month of travelling and football including that they were up throughout the NAB Cup. They are very proffessional IMO however now the tough period is done this can sometimes be when a lapse occurs, although they will be aware this week presents a major challenge. WBD now bring a clear edge in quality. I’m also looking forward to the dual between the two excellent coaches. I make this game even money and Austalian books are now into 2.20

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Here's my plays for today - well, I think this will be all. Melbourne v Roos : Under 24.5 margin @ 4.20 Crows v Dogs : Under 24.5 margin @ 3.90 Sydney v Cats : Under 39.5 margin @ 2.90 Eagles - 18.5 v Lions : Halftime Handicap @ 1.90 2/10 @ 751.58 Melbourne v Roos : Quartertime result @ 2.10 Crows v Dogs : Quartertime result @ 2.10 Sydney v Cats : Quartertime result @ 1.90 2/10 @ 83.70 Going with the roos @ fulltime @ 2.25 6/10 though I'm covering that with a ht/ft roos/demons in case of a repeat of last week. for 2/10 @ 6.25 Roos at 1/4time @ 7/10 for 2.10 May have some more individual scores later in the day but they'll be in tune with above. Lions are 3.25 @ 1/4time! West Coast has lost every one of its first quarters this year and there is a lack of respect factor/lion motivation that may bring some value, I'll debate this later. GL!

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 5

Melbourne v Roos : Under 24.5 margin @ 4.20 Crows v Dogs : Under 24.5 margin @ 3.90 Sydney v Cats : Under 39.5 margin @ 2.90 Eagles - 18.5 v Lions : Halftime Handicap @ 1.90 2/10 @ 751.58 Melbourne v Roos : Quartertime result @ 2.10 Crows v Dogs : Quartertime result @ 2.10 Sydney v Cats : Quartertime result @ 1.90 2/10 @ 83.70

Er, that's 75.15 and 8.37 respectively - didn't want to edit the original.

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 5 I'll try to get these in earlier from now on, I know having the time for others to read them makes more sense. Great information on the Roos Taza, they look pretty comfortable out there. I'm spending the 7 points profit off of the Roos first quarter on a Dogs win under 24.5. 7/10 Bulldogs win under 24.5 @ 3.90 - Injuries on both sides, should be close

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Well to all the people who put money on the Dogs... ouch. I guess it was a worry in the backs of peoples minds... But given the results of the first 4 rounds, is it possible they were just frauds? Haven't felt confident enough to put money down yet. Mat.

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 5 My last plays for tonight, don't know what to say about the dogs, other than ooops!. :$ Sydney vs Geelong : Quartertime Result @ 1.90 x 5/10 West Coast vs Lions : Quartertime Result @ 3.55 x 2/10 West Coast -18.5 vs Lions : Halftime Result @ 1.90 x 5/10 Geelong/Geelong : HT/FT @ 2.20 x 5/10

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Where are you betting in-game, robby? I thought Centrebet used to have bets at HT, but can't find anything...Betfair have nothing?

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Well, I know Centrebet does tend to have them at HT though I think that the EPL is taking over on that one until the season is finished. Betfair you can as long as you call because of the live betting laws. Although, I haven't been live betting, did I give the impression that I was?

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Anyone else back Freo SU today?. I jumped on at odds 3.00 on the news Hamill was out and that it didn't look like rain afterall. The siren business wasn't really what annoyed me. Tore my hair out yesterday as Kangas with all the momentum but tried to run the clock down with 16-minutes to play!!! :@. Then went through the same thing as Freo throw it away through defensive mentality :@ :@ This is what to expect though when punting these two clubs ATM :wall. Thankfully Hawks fall over the line but I won't take too much credit, having rated them good things. I actually made a bad assement blue on Cats overlooking that Swans were playing twice on end at home. When I looked at my guide I mistook Telstra Stadium as being Telstra dome. I layed off in the end but apologies to anyone who may have thought I knew what I was doing :$. A new week coming up and hopefully can get back on track.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL - Round 5 robby, I thought you'd said a couple of times that you were rolling over the profit from a couple of 1/4 time bet wins...I just assumed it was in-play... ...but yeah, thanks for the Betfair reminder. Forgot about our ever-vigilant Federal Government clamping down on one of societies major ills...live-internet gambling...wtf??!! Horribly unlucky with Freo, Ash...imo, the game is probably 60/40 to be over-turned for a Freo win (as it should!)...unfortunately betting won't change... ...now where was that debate about SU v. H'cap betting? ;) (joking!!) What I've hated most about the weekend is that I had the Crows/Dogs nailed on the head...until I changed my mind on Friday afternoon! :@ Should never have made that bet... ...that, and WC only up by 15 at the half, only to run away and cover the full line easily... ...Collingwood and Freo made it a 50/50 weekend...but I don't like those! :( Hoping to get the Dogs as 'dogs again this week, also Essendon should be a decent price to beat Richmond... Agree. Back on track would be nice! :D

[Ashtee]

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 5

robby, I thought you'd said a couple of times that you were rolling over the profit from a couple of 1/4 time bet wins...I just assumed it was in-play...

Nah, just using the hour difference in games to play on. Lions had the qt @ 28 min! Damn you Judd! Suprised at the half though, Eagles have dominated the 2nd in weeks past, but in hindsight I guess the Roos and Tigers being in it at the half would have sent a few warning signs. Lots of pressure on the Lions crew in the past wouldn't have helped. (They were really aggressive in the 1st) I was really caught out on the Dogs, and I still can't explain it really... On paper they should have been close even without the last two pullouts, but wow. All I can say really... I even backed the Dogs at the quarter.... Now, I even said not too last week and did it anyways. Just assumed the Crows being without the main striker would help. Though it's another case where the goal index would have given me more info. So frustrating to waste all of that profit :\ Looking through the browser history the other day and seen that the goal index for this current season is still active in the AFL.com.au flash widget. Might mine all of the games and post them up somewhere for future viewing. I ended up taking 10pts worth on the Crows to take the minor, and to finish on top of the Non Vic teams. I'm sure there will be a couple of shock results between now and round 22, but since the Crows are not playing WC until round 17 they have plenty of time to get healthier and have a strong chance of splitting the h/a. Only 3% behind the Eagles and IMO having a harder start, it's worth a punt. Besides backing 'wood, I stayed out of today for the most part. Don't like jumping in on a back of losses. See the Sydney game? I know the cats are wounded, but they really were moving the ball well. The score didn't reflect how they played at all. That's considering them winning by 24 too! Friday's game could well come down to who comes back of the injury list. I haven't looked to see who is close to coming back, but both have key players out, so it may be valuable information. Still like the Tigers next week, but it's biased - so I'll leave it at that.

[robby]

Re: AFL - Round 5 Before we get into next week's schedule - I was curious. What AFL resources is everyone using? I'm using FinalSiren and Footywire for stats, and BigFooty for team news/insider info (though it tends to seem biased - can't blame it, it is a fan forum)