Mlb 21/4

[Juuso]

Took a couple of early ones few hours ago as odds will probably drop. Pirates has dropped a little already. Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox Twins 2.08 (Pinnacle) 6 units KC: LHP Johan Santana (0-2, 5.71 ERA) CWS: LHP Mark Buehrle (2-0, 2.25 ERA) How long will it take before Johan Santana will get his first win of the season? Altough, he has looked rusty in his first 3 starts, he is known for slow starts of the seasons. He is arguably the best pitcher in the majors, sporting a 48-16, 2.85 ERA in last 3 season when being the ace of the Twins rotation. That is really impressive when playing in a team like Twins, you could add a couple of wins in his win column if he was with a top team. Santana was simply phenomenal against White Sox last season; 4-0 with two shutouts and a 0.92 ERA in five starts. The White Sox hit just .175 against Santana with 44 strikeouts. Sox starter Buehrle is also an excellent pitcher. He is 15-9 and a 3.82 ERA lifetime against the Twins. A low scoring game is very probable. Altough Santana has not looked like his old self, i'm confident he is too consistent multi-year achiever not to pick up his game. Because of the fluke start for him the odds are this way. Normally Twins would be a slight favorite against almost any team on road when Santana is pitching. I'm Playing Twins with medium stakes Some interesting stats: Twins 7-0 in Santana's last 7 starts vs. Chicago (Chisox only scored 9 total runs in those games). Chisox 2-5 in Buerhle's last 7 starts vs. Twins (Twins scored 35 runs in those games). Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros Pirates 2.13 (Pinnacle) 6 unit PIT: LHP Zach Duke (1-1, 4.50 ERA) HOU: LHP Wandy Rodriguez (2-0, 2.84 ERA) Ok, pretty good situation to take Pirates. Zach Duke has had one fluke bad outing this season against the Dodgers at home, but rebounded back with style limiting Cubs to 1 run in 7 innings of work in his last game. A good thing also when Duke is in top of his game, he has the ability to go deep into games, limiting bullpen exposure. Wandy has started the season pretty good, but he certainly is no match to Duke. Wandy was 10-10, 5.53 ERA last season in his first year in MLB and was pretty erratic at times, as his high ERA suggests. Altough, he possibly has improved his pitching, he has been overperforming in his first 19 innings of the season and can not maintain such a ERA. Battingwise both teams are quite equal so i'll go with the much better pitcher. Odds are very good because of Wandys good start of the season also. Pirates chance of winning this matchup is clearly over 50% making it a good value bet. Anything over 2 is good value for Pirates imho.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 21/4 First game I look at and Im torn. ATL @ WAS Smoltz has been fantastic this year bar 2 innings. In both his first two starts he gave up 4 runs in a inning, reulting in single run losses for the Braves. In his last game he threw a complete game shutout. Ignoring his two bad innings this means he's given up one run over 19 innings. Nw I was quite confident about backing ATL at what I thought was a good price of 1.95 but now I see that Pinnacle are overing 3.19 for WAS on a -1.5 handicap. This also looks a great price to me. At these prices I may have to crunch the numbers and back both for a profit as long as WAS dont manage a solo run victory. EDIT: Well thats that option out ofthe window as it only leaves me with a 1/5 shot.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 21/4 I really dont know. ATL have been winning even with Chipper Jones and Renteria out injured and Andruw Jones is on fire.He's hit 5 HR's and 8 RBIsin his last 6 games. Their pitchers have thrown 3 complete games in the last 5. Saying all this Patterson(WAS) struckout 13 in 8 innings against the Marlins LTO giving up just the one run. His figures have got better with each game hes pitched this season and he's limiting his opponents to a hitting record of .188. WAS havre got to get off the mark at home sometime and Patterson does seem to be improving. I really feel this game could go either way but Ive decided that handicap price i just too huge to ignore. WAS also have a man in form in Johnson. He's hitting .560 in his last 6 games and .400 for the season with 5 HR's and 12 RBIs. WAS(-1.5) to win 3.19 @ Pinnacle 5/10

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 21/4 Im glad I made the decisin when I did. Pinnacle have now made ATL clear favs and have switched the handicap so its now WAS (+1.5). Bets price I can see at a glance for WAS(-1.5) nw is 2.88 @ Betfred. EDIT: My mistake. WAS(-1.5) is still available, its under their alternative runlines. Now 3.26.

[StevieFlack]

Re: Mlb 21/4 Im well into the mets vs padres over 7.5 runs @1.90 Bannister has started well in his rookie year for the mets.low era in 3 starts, but gave up 5 walks last time, but clearly was not punished. Woody williams is normally good for 2 or 3 runs. The mets have plenty of power and bannister must have a shaky start at some point. SO 200 POINTS SINGLE.oVER 7.5 RUNS @ 1.9

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 21/4 No time for a detailed writeup but im taking BOS to beat TOR @ 1.9. Beckett has got off to a fantastic start this season, giving up just 4 runs over 21 innings. Boston have only lost 1 on the road so far. TOR are 2-1 so far this season vs BOS but both victories were down to bad pitching by the starter. If Beckett does half the job he's been doing he should leave the Sox in a good position.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 21/4 Anyone for overs in the TB - TEX game??? 5-5 after 2 innings!!

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 21/4 At last, a positive night for me. BOS finally lost after 12 innings but Ill take that in exchange for a 7-3 WAS win at a very tasty price. Unlucky Juuso. MIN bullpen really cost you there leaving them no chance to comeback. Surely Santanas first win must be round the corner, as should be Duke's next win. He really looks like a talented youngster and could become a big name in the future. It could be worth siding with BOS next game. Halliday will have to go deep for Toronto after tonight. They used 6 of their bullpen over a massive 8 innings.

[Juuso]

Re: Mlb 21/4 WFTE, Congrats for the Washington Runline, good call. Alfonso Soriano was just amazing hitting 3 home runs and made the difference in the bottom of the 8th with the clutch shot. Yeah, a bit unlucky especially with Pirates. They had more hits, left more men on base and grounded 4 times to double play. More scoring chances but no go this time. Lack of run support and Twins bullpen was the downfall of my bets last night, but looking forward to get back to winning ways today. I like Bostons price also because Halladay is coming of a minor injury and will most probably not go further than 5-6 innings as a precaution. I'm looking thru the matchups and did some calculations with my power rankings. Will put up some writeups in an hour or two.