AFL Rd. 4.

[TazaD]

Hawthorn look good things, but not sure 1.40 is quite a "Hawthron" price just yet! Still, they won the last meeting last season by 24 points at the MCG, with 6 more inside 50's and 9 more clearances... ...also interesting to note Carlton's goal kickers; Fevola 4, Waite 2, Lappin 1. Fevola definately out, Lapping 80% out and Waite 50/50 at best, so I think they are going to struggle. I do like the way they have fought out games and not given up tho... Dogs 2.00 looks like a good bet...not quite the price I was hoping for, but 2.00 or better looks ok. Like I said, Harley, Scarlett, King, Playfair missing for the Cats...Minson and Morgan out for the Dogs, but Street will directly replace Minson, and Morgan is no more than a bit player...I'm not sure the Geelong forward line can go tall enough to worry the Dogs...Grant in great form, Harris playing very well, Montgomery better for the run... The Doggies won at the dome last year by 35 points!...having 64 inside 50's to 50 and 35 clearances to 30...and that was with Geelong having a full side. My guess is that theDDogs come in later in the week, so 2.00 seems nice now. Richmond +24.5 is an interesting one... The Tiges actually beat Brisbane at Brisbane last season by 4 points as 2.65 'dogs...They also lost by just 18 points up there in 2004 as 10.00 'dogs!!! (Brisbane were 1.05) Last year Power missed, but Lappin played...Brisbane had 6 more inside 50's, but Richmond won the clearances 37-29. Bradshaw doubtful this week...Leppitch also ??... Gaspar out for Richmond, but I'd say Bradshaw would be the bigger loss in that match-up anyway!... 2 problems I guess...last year Brown kicked 4 for the Tiges...and he looks like he'll miss, and have Richmond got anyone to stop J. Brown??..Hall? Kellaway?...could get messy!! Couldn't take the Lions...might take Richmond yet, although it's always a scary prospect...esp. travelling 2 weeks in a row... Crows 2.20!....Freo have won 3 of the last 4 (2/2 at Subi), but only by 1 and 9 points, and both as reasonable favs. Crows won by 6 at AAMI last year, but had 6 more shots (14.10 to 14.4), and had 58 insdie 50's to 39!! Adelaide won their only reg. season game at Subi last year, beating WC by 8 as 3.00 'dogs. I know Adelaide aren't exactly up and running atm, but are Freo ever? Their win last week is over-rating them here I think. WC/Kangas could be close, but Melbourne won by 36 last year at Canberra as favs, so no reason why WC can't too... ...having sai that, WC won by just 4 at the Dome late last year with Matera kicking 5...59-56 inside 50's and 34-33 clearances, so it was genuinely close...not sure...weather could be a factor... Was hoping Melbourne would have a few more points too... ...still, Melbourne won at the SCG by 34 last year, and they are 5-2 this number in their last 7 at Sydney...BUT, Sydney had 25 shots to 24and 51 inside 50's to 47, they just kicked incredibly poorly...still, close stats make it hard for the Swans to win biggish... ...Syd have won just one game in their last 7 by double digits!...Melbourne are 0-3 but faced 2 very good teams in their last 2. Sydney have looked awful so far...would have liked more, but will take +12.5 I suspect. St. Kilda 1.75 has to be bet of the week? Port hve won 8 straight meetings, but I guess that's why the price is so big... ...Port won by 23 in Launceston last year, but had 2 less shots and 10 less inside 50's!!...The Saints have been 'dogs in all of the other games, so it's not like they were losing games they should have won. Port have lost both games this year at home to MUCH worse teams than the Saints. St. Kilda have won 2 of their last 3 at AAMI, by 15 and 8 v. the Crows, and lost by just 6 last meeting to Port as 4.00 'dogs. I'm still not convinced St. Kilda are playing all that well, but Potr as just rubbish!...Tredrea back for Port, but Kositski, Ball and Peckett all expected back for the Saints...can only see one winner here. Collingwood?...look lkely winners but 1.50 is a bit slim, imo. Ess have won the last 4, but 3 as favs, and won by 26 in rd. 16 last season, but had 4 less shots & 4 less inside 50's. Collingwood had no Rocca, Fraser or Didak. Ess had no Hird, but Lloyd kicked 8!... ...It's Anzac Day and anything can happen...sit back with a beer (if you're still standing after a thousand rum and cokes after the Dawn Service! :ok LOL!!

[davidmphill]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Great post Taza. You know your stuff.:ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Likely four or five head to heads for me this week. Hawks available at 1.48 now. I'm not being sucked in by Geelong's downer last week but I believe Hawthorn out gun the Blues. Danger of let down off the win but should only take an even effort to win. The Collingwood loss doesn't line up so bad now wheras Carlton have played three very suspect teams (at the time they played them) and were really beaten by half time at Frem, which sometimes can be a more significant indictor I believe. I like the price about Hawks. Think i'll stay out of the dogs game. They shape up well but I think Cat's general focus this season is excellent and I'm worried about the rebound factor. I remember the Tigers game from last year well. I won't say this too loud but generally their supporters are a good bunch. In the large town I live in I've got one of those big screen joints just stumbling distance from where I live and sometimes venture down to watch a game and have a couple. About fifty Richmond supporters ond one good natured Brisbane fan copping it all beautifully. I'd backed Richmond myself and was just a fantastic atmosphere and the place went off once they got up by the few points. Much different to a Collingwood or Essendon atmos. Tiges were in excellent form at the time (Rd-9). J.Brown was well held but I forget who did the job. Might have even been Bowden?? Yes, this does look the worry though, they're running low on options and could get ugly ... that's if Bris morale is in fact OK. Knobel or Stafford may even come in and Simmonds could be a joker in defence or attack?? At the odds I give Richmond a chance but will be looking for price to drift slightly. Very much like Freo :eyes. Adelaide are being asked to travel again and on a 6-day break. Freo have the strongest list in the comp IMO and I believe the'll carry momentum from last weeks confidence boost. They looked the ship without a rudder early but were a differnt unit as game went on. Ports's style suited them I believe whereas Adel will be different and Freo will have to start from half-back a lot of time. I like Freo at home to get the better of them and out run them in the end. One thing about the six-day double traveller I believe is not only the physical test but getting the mental focus right. I know, I know ... but just think the 1.76 is value. Love the SU price about Demons. A double traveller also but I think momentum, hunger and some due karma are going to be important factors. Certainly some doubts abouts Swans hunger. I've got this evens. +12.5 looks an OK buffer also but being a SU man the 2.60 looks juicy. Maybe won't be involved at Manuka? 15.5 doesn't look to hard a cover for WCE tho, who look to be on a mission this year. Might still consider that one. Why two games at 1:10pm and no other??? When framing my prices today I thought I was a certainty to be backing Port but looks like I'm a cert to be on the Saints at that price. Did catch Bris on the impossible 5-day rest but I think they can hurt Port in all the right places. Over the years I've never found a bet on the Anzac day game and this year looks no different.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 4.

Event	Fremantle v Adelaide
Selection	Fremantle
Strength	7/10
Date	22/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	canbet @ 1.75 (Back)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 4.

Event	Sydney v Melbourne
Selection	Melbourne
Strength	10/10
Date	23/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.61 (Back)
Reasoning	A game I rate even money. As expected, a special effort by Sydney last week in a must win game after a disapointing start to the season. I wasn’t over impressed. We all know by now of their limited preparation through the pre-season but it does appear to me that several players are struggling for genuine ‘hunger’. Melbourne also have struggled with some under-prepared players but, as will be the case with Sydney, that is improving as was evident in the second half last week. They should carry good momentum from that. On the downside they travel consecutive weeks but experience tells me that the momentem, hunger and some due karma should be stong factors in this game. Increased wager for this.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Bulldogs 2.07 ...It now looks like Egan may be out aswell, so Geelong will be more hit by injury than the Bulldogs. Who is left to play down back? Mooney maybe, but that will leave a big hole in the ruck and/or CHF...either way he is too slow to go with anyone likely to line up in the Doggies forward line. I just can't agree on the Freo pick tho, Ash...2.24 is a tremendous price imo, for the better side. Adelaide 2.24 Melbourne +12.5 St. Kilda -4.5

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 4.

Event	Carlton v Hawthorn
Selection	Hawthorn
Strength	7/10
Date	21/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.48 (Back)

With Brendan Fevola missing through suspension, tall forward Brad Fisher comes into the side after missing two weeks with a hamstring strain, while Irishman Setanta O'hAilpin and Jordan Russell both return for their second AFL matches after debuting last season. Callum Chambers and Trent Sporn were both omitted from the side that fell to Sydney by seven points last week with Sporn named as an emergency along with Jordan Bannister and Simon Wiggins. Crawford in doubt for Hawthorn. (See also early comments above)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Might have to change my view on the Fremantle game I think... Ricciuto and Edwards didn't train mid-week with "general soreness", but with Edwards named on the bench, you'd have to think he'll miss. Big out.

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Ok thought I would add to this. I like using Betfair because they won't limit your bets, ever. Plus the odds are generally reasonable. Carlton v. Hawthorn Carlton +17.5 at 1.96 - Betfair Carlton has played two low-scoring affairs at the Telstra Dome so far, some of the only matches that have actually been low scoring there. They seem to be jamming up the games a bit. My only concern is that Hawthorn will blow the game apart using their midfield. Mat.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 4.

Ok thought I would add to this. I like using Betfair because they won't limit your bets, ever. Plus the odds are generally reasonable. Carlton v. Hawthorn Carlton +17.5 at 1.96 - Betfair Carlton has played two low-scoring affairs at the Telstra Dome so far, some of the only matches that have actually been low scoring there. They seem to be jamming up the games a bit. My only concern is that Hawthorn will blow the game apart using their midfield. Mat.

Good luck Mat... ...I'm going along the same lines, only different! :unsure 7/10 on Carlton v. Hawthorn under 175.5 (2.90) 3/10 on 176-195 (3.20) [Gives stake back] Carlton have had some low scoring games so far, with 2 going under the 175 (both at the dome), and the other was 187 at Fremantle. The clincher for me herre is no Fevola or Waite for Carlton. In their first meeting last season (at the dome), the score was 89-83. Fevola didn't play in that game, but Waite kicked 5 goals. The next meeting at the MCG was much higher scoring, but Fevola kicked 4 and Waite 2. I think that Carlton will realise that they can't kick a big score tonight and will bottle the game up with plenty of numbers behind the ball. Hawthorn ahve topped 100 in just 2 of their last 10 at the dome and av. 84 ppg...Carlton have topped 100 just once and av. 88 ppg.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Hawks by 17pts in a defensive scrap will do me just fine. :hope :ok

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. THis is during the match, but I also put money on.. Total match points under 185.5 1.90 @ Betfair The skills are pretty poor so far. Awesome. Mat.

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Lost one, won one. WBD v. Geelong. WBD on Betfair at 1.96 WBD -39.5 on Betfair at 6.80 Geelong will be hampered by too many injuries to the players that count. The margin bet is just a smokey. Brisbane v. Richmond Richmond on Betfair at 3.60. I think 3.60 is value. The Gabba aint what it used to be. Fremantle v. Adelaide Fremantle on Betfair at 1.77. Subiaco hasn't changed a mite. These are all 1pt bets besides WBD HH which is 2. Mat.

[robby]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Dogs always seem to start slow, so I'm taking the cats at quarter time, and the dogs at fulltime. Curious, I've found a few sites that have had information on afl, but I'm looking for one that has a goal index (behind @ 2.06, goal @ 3.10) etc. Is there such a site?

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. You're thinking about 'who kicks first the goal' kind of bets?? Don't know about any such site --- I do know that sort of thing exists for rugby union though, have run into it before. Mat.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Phew, now I know why some of you guys play the h'cap! :lol Dees were obviously out of legs back end of third and fourth. Looked ominous, and I was just hanging onto that karma notion I talked about. Lots of grit by Melb :notworthy and the Swans missed shots can sometimes suggest that couple percent down in true hunger, I believe. Nice get on Tigers there Mat :clap . Had a think about it myself as they had the edge in overall quality in my view. Some team balance fears just kept me out. Nice spot on Cats 1/4-time Robby. They were bound to come out hard after last week. What price did you get? Dogs finished the afternoons work for you also :ok . Thought I summed the Fremantle game up beautifully. Just overlooked that Crows would make fools of them by half time :\ :lol :lol . Good call on that one Taza :clap . Adelaide were reportably feeling the effects during the week of a tough month of travelling but are real pros and came out firing destroying Dockers in close and were better organised. I think I now know for sure how to take Freo from here on :spank . Hope it keeps rolling for you with Saints tomorrow :ok . Think I'll be sitting out rest of round but will still have a look to see if any good angles are there. Ash.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 4.

Thought I summed the Fremantle game up beautifully. Just overlooked that Crows would make fools of them by half time :\ :lol :lol . Good call on that one Taza :clap . Ash.

Mate, if that's the best list in the AFL, then the League has problems!! :lol Backward bush leagues don't miss 6-7-8 out of 10 targets!...Freo's skill level is some of the worst I've seen in a long time. I went the other way actually...thought the Crows were ordinary, and yeah, definately showing signs of slowing down, but Freo just kept giving them back the ball!! Horrible, horrible football team. But, the good news is, that if Freo are that bad, how bad are Port!! :rollin Saints in a romp....-24.5 (3.25) btw...just looking forward to next week, we could have two of the biggest beltings ever witnessed on the same weekend... West Coast will be -50, and Collingwood won't be far behind...both will win by 10 goals + :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 4.

Mate, if that's the best list in the AFL, then the League has problems!! :lol West Coast will be -50, and Collingwood won't be far behind...both will win by 10 goals + :ok

Good list, crap coach = crap side. Don't think they'd be all hanging around the outside of packs like they do if it was Sheedy, Eade, Malthouse, Pagan, Worsfold, Craig ... or Harvey. Get away with it against Port but can't help team morale if they play that way. Might be their best chance to make finals if they lose their next three games ;) . I'd stay home next week if I were Brisbane. Now there's a side with a crap list. Lacking some morale also?

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Yeh Freo doesn't play for the team, for their teammates. I bet on them because they are basically two teams normally - Subi and Away. Last few years the media's been like 'oh, so they ARE good' 'wait, no they aren't' 'hang on a sec even at home its hard to beat X' etc. Was happy with the Richmond bet, it covered my other losing bets - that and the dogs winning. The bet on geelong at quarter time was genius. Saints -24.5 at 3.25----- will make a decision tomorrow but that price is kind of short. Looking forward to next week Btw, this weekend was the first time I have lost on a margin bet, and have done so twice. Dang. Mat.

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Hi, People Deciding weather to back the over 185.5 Port/Saints game. Tredrea will make a difference and also Ball is back for the saints. Both teams can kick between the stinks. Whats your opinions please;)

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Between the stinks, ay?...:lol No Gehrig mate...having said that, Port have allowed an enormous amount of scoring shots at home to Freo and the Kangas. Personally I think St. Kilda is the best bet...pretty confident they will win, but not sure how much they (or Port for that matter) will score.

[-Loki-]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. Oh sorry, between the "sticks":$

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 4.

Event	Collingwood v Essendon
Selection	Collingwood
Strength	7/10
Date	25/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Gamebookers @ 1.53 (Back)
Reasoning	Essendon with some important players out while Collingwood go in with a superior and more settled squad. I like the way Collingwood are travelling at present and think they will maintain enough momentum for this game. Essendon needing a win and should have their moments but the task seems too much here. My price: Collingwood 1.38

[robby]

Re: AFL Rd. 4.

Curious' date=' I've found a few sites that have had information on afl, but I'm looking for one that has a goal index (behind @ 2.06, goal @ 3.10) etc. Is there such a site?[/quote'] Not quite. Consider this - Fevola has dominated compared to the rest of the Blues when it comes to scoring. Hawthorn at quarter time was 1.70, which I ended up taking but I would have been a lot more confident if I had an idea on when the goals/behinds were scored by Fevola on a game by game basis. 1.70 represented value, but I was blind in the decision. How much did Archer being out effect the first quarter of the roos? How much will Gehrig hurt the start of the Saints win :dude tonight? Quarter time to me represents value, time scored is valued information. 1.90 I think, again based on stats. Tends to be more set shots in the first 1/4 and the dogs tend to play better kicking on the run. I almost favor Port tonight on the 1/4 time, but with the Saints and the current form makes me weary. So like the Eagles-Kangs, there isn't any value in it. Sorry for the little 'after eventing', just trying to show where I'm coming from when the goal index contains value. Saints over 24.5 represents value, but a straight win will be my main bet. Harvey is in, so 3/10 on the over, 10/10 on the win outright.

[robby]

Re: AFL Rd. 4.

']Hi, People Deciding weather to back the over 185.5 Port/Saints game. Tredrea will make a difference and also Ball is back for the saints. Both teams can kick between the stinks. Whats your opinions please;)

On paper I wouldn't have advised it either, but man I sure hope you jumped all over this. Easily done in the 3rd! Saints down by 15 and start of the fourth. Port have never won a fourth (49 for - 106 against) quarter to date, could today be the first? Over 24.5 looks to be blown out of the water, go Saints!

[mattsthebest]

Re: AFL Rd. 4.

On paper I wouldn't have advised it either, but man I sure hope you jumped all over this. Easily done in the 3rd! Saints down by 15 and start of the fourth. Port have never won a fourth (49 for - 106 against) quarter to date, could today be the first? Over 24.5 looks to be blown out of the water, go Saints!

I did indeed.:clap

[robby]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. I know that the 'stay away' tips on the 'wood v 'dons game were made early in the week, but everytime I look into this game, I can't help to think that Collingwood will rock Essendon. Most of the time its easy to say that missing one player isn't that big of a deal and you'd be right. Saints could have won last night but decided to play 'no contested marks', and 'kick it to Nick' footy. Gehrig could have made the difference, but all credit to Port, they wanted it, and the Saints didn't. Brown being out didn't hurt Richmond though, because Richmond wanted it. Plain and simple. Collingwood will want this game more than the 'dons I'd reckon. Finally they have a fit and full squad, they have the biggest stage, and the momentum. I can't look at last years stats in this. The Pies have acted, and moved the ball like a whole new team this year. Lloyd being gone however, makes the 'dons look very vunerable. They don't look like they'll have a replacement that won't hurt some other part of the game. Lucas in the square? Well, good luck getting the ball in the 50 taking him out of CHB. They won't take the ruckman Hille down there. Well, they might but it will severly hurt the chances getting the ball out of the centre. Normally I don't go for lines because of the 'cruise mode' factor. Dogs vs the Cats. Dogs had it until the last 2.5 minutes. Then gave the Cats two goals. Crows letting Freo back in... However, this is Anzac Day, I don't see Collingwood letting up at all. 'wood at the half -8.5 looks a treat, taking the line -22.5 looks great too. No value in the quarter at 1.65, I'm taking a small part of the dons at 2.35. Game on!

[robby]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. um, ignore my last post :(

[matjnewton]

Re: AFL Rd. 4. I had a dip just before I left home so was pretty happy, Collingwood -15.5 (cmon Didak with 30 secs left!!!!) and total games points >185.5Both ones clocked in so pretty happy with thatMat.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 4.

Normally I don't go for lines because of the 'cruise mode' factor. Dogs vs the Cats. Dogs had it until the last 2.5 minutes. Then gave the Cats two goals. Crows letting Freo back in... Game on!

Yeah, with you on the cruise mode/junk time theory robby. Coaches and players don't FULLY motivate themselves to play for percentage. They are about winning the game, so this is what I contemplate when determining my wager ... odds of winning the game. At some stage nearly all games revert to junk time, so punting the cap is part 'lucky dip' to me. Even today Essendon must have started to drop heads very late in game, so I wonder, do Collingwood kick that last goal if the game was truely on? People taking the h'cap on Essendon perhaps actually judged it best (spread was 12.5 to 15.5) but are cheated out of it due to the junk time factor? I'm certainly not about knocking people who do play the caps because some are obviously good at it and interestingly I also notice those that are, play the fave a lot. Each to their own that suits their syle ... just my philosophy on it. :ok Ash.