Guest fender2004 Posted March 14, 2004 Share Posted March 14, 2004 Hi to all, I have a simple but effective system I would like to share with you all. It involves betting on greyhounds & concentrates on the first 4 races each day on the two morning cards. This system relies on only one thing, THE LONG LOSING STREAK. After analysing 4 years of greyhound results, I found that whenever any trap went 15 days without winning one of the first 4 races, it seldom made it past 20 days. In fact on average for every 10 times the losing streak went to 15 days, only 2 would make it past 20. Using this knowledge I formulated a chart & staking plan to start betting on any trap that hit 15 days without winning. Now bearing in mind that the average winning price of a greyhound is 7/2. Using a staking plan as follows i.e 20,25,30,40,50 (races 15-19) Over a month a profit is guaranteed. Just this Month I have had 4 winners already, of course this system works on any race of the day. But the reason I concentrate on the first 4 is because it is easy to keep track. And on many occasions you will have two or three simultaneous qualifiers. Also most of the winners occur between 15-17. Sometimes I hit a 6/1 or 7/1 on the first or second attempt. I have also found that traps 3 & 4 are the most consistent winners in this system. For example, from January 2003-march 2004. Trap 4 has only gone past 20 three times. But won between 15-19 thirty one times. The reason I think this system is so successful is because it relies on nothing special happening, other than what will happen anyway month in month out. If you would like to check the results for yourself, Ladbrokes have an excellent results archive. And if you have any questions, I would be happy to answer any queries. Kindest regards... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted March 14, 2004 Share Posted March 14, 2004 The time-line Greyhound system Ive dabbled a little into the dogs and would love to see your predictions following up with the results. welcome to the lounge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETT1NLOTS Posted March 14, 2004 Share Posted March 14, 2004 Re: The time-line Greyhound system Hi fender and welcome to the PL. Why don't you enter your system into the Systems and Strategy Forum? There you could post your bets before the races and proof your system for everyone to see. I haven't had a bet on the dogs for years myself as too many things can happen. The dogs are easy to 'nobble' and they bump each other out too often to make it anything like an exact science to me. Anyway best of luck with your system. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted March 14, 2004 Share Posted March 14, 2004 Re: The time-line Greyhound system Welcome to the PL :) I know bothing about Dogs, but I wouldn't have thought that a specific trap not having a winner for however many races makes the dog running from it any more likely to win. That is like saying East Stirling haven't won for 376 games so they're bound to win this saturday ;) Using a staking plan as follows i.e 20,25,30,40,50 (races 15-19) Over a month a profit is guaranteed. I wish you luck but I can assure you that profit is not guaranteed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 15, 2004 Share Posted March 15, 2004 Re: The time-line Greyhound system Hi Norfolk enchance, and thankyou for your reply. I understand your point of view, because I too would've been scepticle if someone had told me that most long losing streaks come to rest between 15-19 days. But it is true. Like I said if you're willing to do the homework (which lets face it, most people aren't) you'll see for yourself. I will in the coming week announce when traps qualify for any interested to monitor for themselves. But when I say a profit is guaranteed I mean it. This system is consistent. Don't ask me why, it just is. If something works for 4 years, I think it is safe to say it works forever. Remember, nobody can affect the results of this system because you're not depending on anything special to happen, such as a favourite winning or second favourite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 15, 2004 Share Posted March 15, 2004 Re: The time-line Greyhound system Hi Gettinlots, no exact science is required. This is what you have to consider. What destroys most punters dreams of making profit from gambling ? THE LONG LOSING STREAK! Their lack of respect & understanding of it ultimately defeats any stratedgy they may have. This is why I decided to tackle it from the opposite direction. As I once heard a very successful gambler say "Don't worry about how often something wins, WORRY ABOUT HOW OFTEN IT LOSES". The reason I think this system works so well with greyhounds, is there are always *6* in a race. Unlike Horseracing, where you can have anything from 2 to 22. That symetrical number is definately a factor. But I studied results relentlessly for six months to formulate this system, again something that most punters simply wouldn't be willing to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boytractor Posted March 15, 2004 Share Posted March 15, 2004 Dogs fender2004, I find your post very interesting and look forward to seeing you put this into practice. I can confirm your findings regarding traps 3 and 4. On my own site I have information on trap numbers for BAGS meetings and often bet on trap 3 blindly. Good luck tractorboy (use boytractor on here as tractorboy was not available!!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 15, 2004 Share Posted March 15, 2004 Re: Dogs Hi Boytractor, yes I believe that traps 3 & 4 have a slight advantage being in the middle of the race. There is less chance of them being cut off or bummped to the outside when they get a clean break. That could be why their consistency in my system is greater than the other four traps. And why I am considering only betting on those two traps to increase my win to loss ratio even more... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 Re: Dogs Today 15/03/04 Trap 2 won the 11.48 AM at Sheffield. It came out on day 18 in my system at 3/1. It is the 5th winner of the month for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seen2001 Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 The time-line Greyhound system That's great, but is there any chance of these in advance of them running? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 Re: The time-line Greyhound system Okay, Trap 3 in the 1st race of the day. Which is 11.26 AM MON-FRI/ 11.00 AM Saturday & 12.07/12.21 Sunday. Is now 13 days no show. If it doesn't come out tommorrow, it will qualify in my system. So if you're interested in following it. There you go. I will give all the traps numbers out as they qualify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norfolk Enchance Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 Re: The time-line Greyhound system Fender, I am not questioning your stats, I am questioning the theory behind your system. Using this knowledge I formulated a chart & staking plan to start betting on any trap that hit 15 days without winning You are betting on a particular dog winning from a particular trap simply because that trap has gone 15 days or more without having a winner. Its the old heads and tails thing. If a coin has landed heads 15 times in a row, it does not make it any more likely to land tails on the next throw. Or is there more to it than that? I would also doubt your claim that if something works for 4 years it is safe to say it will work forever. This was posted in another thread about systems- I'm sure Mick won't mind me quoting him here sorry to rain on your parade, but it is possible to find any number of 'systems' that make a profit when you data-mine like that. None are guaranteed to continue to make a profit in the future. What you need to do is form your theory system first, being able to defend it on a rational basis as to why it might outperform the bookies and then, and only then, test it. Any 'tweaking' at this stage is far more likely to be 'cooking the books' than 'improving the system' Just some thoughts, I do of course wish you luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 Re: The time-line Greyhound system Northfolk Enchance, I understand your scepticism. If a system has worked without fail for 4 months. And then goes of the rail you've a point. But four years ? Just think about that. I have been making profit with this system now for 8 months. And will continue to do so as long as greyhound racing exists. We aren't dealing with a mechanical game of chance here like, the roll of a dice, the spin of a wheel, or the toss of a coin. But a real life flesh & blood situation. Remember I said that the long losing run comes to rest between 15-19 an average of 8 times out of 10. I didn't say it ALWAYS falls between that timeline. BUT, and this is the defining factor. At the end of a months play. You will always turn a profit, of that there is no question. How much profit depends on the odds of the winners & how much your particular betting bank is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boytractor Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 Time Line Strange as it may seem but the dogs do throw up some excellent opportunities based on traps rather than any logic or form. I find this thread very interesting and am currently in the process of updating my own stats for the dogs at Bags meetings. Once I have completed this (it will take me some time as I'm about 6 months out of date!), I will automate the losing run sequence in order to highlight when a particular trap is due to win - more out of curiosity than anything. I have looked at several trap only theories and they all seem to work. I am particularly interested in ANY dogs systems, ideas etc. that do not involve form study!! That may sound daft but from what I have seen, losing runs are few and far between. I would be interested to hear of any other trap/number ideas that members have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 Re: Time Line Right Boytractor, and the two main reasons I favour Dog racing over horseracing are (1) There are always 6 dogs in the race. And (2) On average the winning prices are better. No 1/12 or worse non-sense. Mastering the long losing run in any form of betting is the only way to go in my opinion, as that and human greed ultimately destroy 99% of all gamblers aspirations of making a long term profit from gambling. I personaly try to increase my bankroll by about 50% each month. So if I started with a bankroll of 2000 pounds for example. I would be more than happy if I am around the 3000 pound mark at the end of a months play. And so far that's exactly what I am achieving. It doesn't take a genius to know that is you only increase your bankroll by 50% a month for even 1 year. Then even 200 pounds will convert into some pretty decent numbers... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 16, 2004 Share Posted March 16, 2004 Re: Time Line Right Boytractor, and the two main reasons I favour Dog racing over horseracing are (1) There are always 6 dogs in the race. And (2) On average the winning prices are better. No 1/12 or worse non-sense. Mastering the long losing run in any form of betting is the only way to go in my opinion, as that and human greed ultimately destroy 99% of all gamblers aspirations of making a long term profit from gambling. I personaly try to increase my bankroll by about 50% each month. So if I started with a bankroll of 2000 pounds for example. I would be more than happy if I am around the 3000 pound mark at the end of a months play. And so far that's exactly what I am achieving. It doesn't take a genius to know that if you only increase your bankroll by 50% a month for even 1 year. Then even 200 pounds will convert into some pretty decent numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dickiebow Posted March 17, 2004 Share Posted March 17, 2004 Re: Time Line Hi Fender Is it the first four races in timed order or the first four on each card? Dickiebow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 17, 2004 Share Posted March 17, 2004 Re: Time Line The first 4 in time sequence. Two from each of the two morning cards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest dickiebow Posted March 18, 2004 Share Posted March 18, 2004 Re: Time Line Fender On 15/3 you posted trap 2 won for the 1st time in 18 days. Checking back over past results I found trap 2 won the 12.35 at Perry Bar on the 14/3. Trap 2 won the 11.00 at Romford on the 13/3. Trap 2 won the 11.34 at Wimbledon on the 9/3. Checking past results since the 18th Feb the longest gap between winning traps in the first four races of the day is a gap of 5 days. On the 22 Feb Trap 4 won one of the first 4 races. On the 28 Feb trap 4 again won one of the first 4 races, which is a gap of 5 days. Am I missing something ????????? Dickiebow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 18, 2004 Share Posted March 18, 2004 Re: Time Line Yes you're missing what I am saying Dickiebow. When I said trap 2 won on the 18th day at 11.48. That means it won in RACE 4 in my system. I case you didn't understand my first post. A trap must go (15) days without winning in *ANY* of the first four races. I only concentrate on the FIRST 4 RACES OF THE DAY. I.E (1) 11.26 (2) 11.34) (3) 11.41 (4) 11.48. Whatever the race, a trap must go *15* days. If you check back on those other winners you mentioned you'll see they didn't qualify in my system. (15-19) days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 22, 2004 Share Posted March 22, 2004 Re: Time Line Another superb winner! Trap 3 won the 12.21 pm at Perry Barr yesterday. The first race in my system, at 6/1 on the 18th day. Were any of you watching or on it ? That is the sixth straight win this month. This is where I bring my safety mechanism into play. After achieving 6 straight wins in a row within my system, logic tells me it's time for a loser (That is a losing streak of 20 days or longer) So what I now do, is continue betting on any qualifiers (trap 1 in the 4th race of the day is at 16 days no show) but drop down to half my usual staking plan. That way should I incur a loser, my losses will be minimized. Like I said before the TWO major factors that destroy the average punters dream of making any real money from gambling are, (1) lack of respect for the long losing streak & (2) GREED! It takes great self-control & patience to conqueer a bookmakers. I have been successful so far because I never forget the golden rules. I have already achieved my goal this month of increasing my betting bank by 50%. Now it's time to be cautious and defend those winnings. In an average month I will win ten times & lose twice. So after winning six in a row, common sense tells me a loss is due... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest boytractor Posted March 23, 2004 Share Posted March 23, 2004 Dogs Well done on that winner. I'm still in the process of updating my own figures before looking at this in more detail - I don't have any doubts about your findings though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest lcgwww Posted March 23, 2004 Share Posted March 23, 2004 GH Fender sys Hi Fender are you posting selections here :hat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted March 23, 2004 Share Posted March 23, 2004 Re: GH Fender sys Thankyou Boytractor, trap 1 in race 4 i.e the 11.48 am. Is now 18 days no show. It only has until thursday to win. Or it will be my first loser this month. I am also watching trap 5 in race 3 1.e the 11.41 am. It is 12 days no show, so in two days it will qualify if it doesn't win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seen2001 Posted April 18, 2004 Share Posted April 18, 2004 The time-line Greyhound system Just bringing this back to the top - Fender will need to refer back to it when I ask him some questions later :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seen2001 Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 The time-line Greyhound system Thankyou Boytractor, trap 1 in race 4 i.e the 11.48 am. Is now 18 days no show. It only has until thursday to win. Or it will be my first loser this month. I am also watching trap 5 in race 3 1.e the 11.41 am. It is 12 days no show, so in two days it will qualify if it doesn't win. Just out of interest, Fender - how did the above mentioned trap 1 (11.48) and trap 5 (11.41) perform after this thread? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest fender2004 Posted April 23, 2004 Share Posted April 23, 2004 Re: The time-line Greyhound system Trap 1 finished at 24 days, so I lost 20pts on that run. I didn't bother betting on trap 5 after that as I decided to concentrate on the two traps that were making me the money. Trap 5 finished at 38 days. The longest losing run in 4.3 years. Its another inconsistent trap. It has produced losing runs of 14,14,16. This month, And trap 6 has produced 16,15. But The whole point of me revising the system to concentrate on the two strongest performers was to offer the strongest system possible to people on here. I have known for some time that 3 & 4 are superior. And I have risked huge ammouts on them to boost my profits. The system I have now is the very best I can offer. And I am proud of it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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