Mr Intensity Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 There was some good discussion in here http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=22291 over the winter and now the season is starting. As you can see at the time I was very pro-Ferrari, but now I'm not too sure. Going to leave the outright market for a few races as the prices seem fair, but there are a lot of specials that interest me. Here are a few of them, will do the rest later today: SportMotorsport EventFormula 1 2006 SelectionMONTOYA +13.5 & WEBBER -6.5 Strength10/10 Date22/10/2006 Bookmaker/PriceStan James @ 3.67 (Back) ReasoningMontoya + 13.5 v Raikkonen @ 2.00 I really fancy Montoya to perform this season. The second half of last season he was matching and outpacing Kimi a lot of the time but was hampered by team orders. He looks to have really settled into McLaren and should perform. Kimi I'm not too sure about, he may start to feel the pressure if the season doesn't start too well. I also think the new qualifying structure will be great for Montoya, and that should give him an edge. The McLaren doesn't seem too reliable early on, and so long as Montoya doesn't get too much of the bad luck, I really fancy him to cover this. Raikkonnen beat Montoya by 52 points last year, but there were a lot of things going against JPM - settling in to McLaren, shoulder injury, team orders - I can't see there being more than 10 points between them this season. Webber -6.5 v Rosberg @ 1.83 I think this is a big year for Webber, it's really time for him to perform. Rosberg is new and I expect Webber to be aggresive with him and really show who the number 1 is. Webber is a very good qualifier, and I think he will be 2-4 places ahead of Resberg at most races. Webber is also one to make things happen during a race, and should be able to produce the odd big result. The Williams also looks decent this year, Cosworth V8 is alright, aero package looks a lot better than last year and the seamless shift is very exciting - this means that I think Williams will get more points than expected and that should create a greater chance of a larger gap between the drivers. 6.5 points shouldn't be much of a problem for Webber IMO. SportMotorsport EventFormula 1 2006 SelectionBARRICHELLO +12.5 & HEIDFELD -3.5 Strength10/10 Date22/10/2006 Bookmaker/PriceStan James @ 3.44 (Back) ReasoningBarrichello +12.5 v Button @ 2.00 Not quite sure why Barri is getting so many points against Button. As racers I'd have them pretty even - Button has experience in the team but I don't think that will be a huge factor as Rubens appears to have settled well. It could also be pretty tough for Button to get his first win, I'm sure it will happen this season, but Rubens is a proven race winner and I think he will be able to get his fair share. I'd be very surprised to see more than 10 points difference between them at the end of the season. Heidfeld -3.5 v Villeneuve @ 1.83 Wow, Heidfeld looks rather underrated in this one. I really think he's a strong driver and proved that last year up against Webber before injury ended his season. Now in the BMW environment he will certainly be the team leader and we're still not sure they really want Villeneuve there. Villeneuve hasn't driven well now and I can't see that changing this season. I don't fancy the BMW much this season, at least to start with I think they'll really struggle, but 3.5pts isn't too much to cover. SportMotorsport EventFormula 1 2006 SelectionWEBBER v Heidfeld Strength10/10 Date22/10/2006 Bookmaker/PriceSportingOdds @ 1.72 (Back) ReasoningTeam mates last year but I can't see this one being very close. The new Williams looks surprisingly decent and could pull off a few shocks. Webber will be looking to progress and has to be looking to beat him total of 36 points from last season. I'm not sure he'll reach it but should get close and 30 points is attainable. I'm not sure Heidfeld will be looking that high and I'm not impressed with the new BMW. I don't think they'll start the season very well at all, but could well progress later in the season. However, I think the same about Williams as the Bridgestone tyres should improve and overtake the Michelins during the course of the season. Also expect the seasless shift box to improve and be very good later in the season. Heidfels surely can't be looking at more than 20 points. Just as a bit of a comparison, William Hill have over/under season points bet: Heidfeld is at 14.5 whilst Webber is at 29.5. That tells a story, doesn't it? SportMotorsport EventFormula 1 2006 SelectionMONTOYA Top 3 finish Strength10/10 Date22/10/2006 Bookmaker/PriceSportingOdds @ 3.00 (Back) ReasoningI think Montoya is a great shot for finishing in the top 3 this season. I've already mentioned that I think he's got a great shot against Raikkonen and that must put him close to the top 3. The new McLaren had a lot of problems in testing, mostly with the Mercedes engine, but when they were able to get it together it was bloody quick. I think they'll still have reliability problems, but that was always going to be the case. I'm intrigued by the new paint job, I don't think they would have done that unless the car was a monster. I think they'll be right up there when it runs smoothly - could be a similar scenario to last year. The dangers to this are Alonso, Hondas, Kimi and Schumi. I'm leaving out Fisi as I'm still unsure about him winning races, something that will need to be done when the Renault is the absolute pace. So that's 6 into 3 places. Well, put Alonso into one. I'd give Montoya an edge over the Hondas, perhaps not at the start of the season but certainly as it progress and you'd imagine the reliability to get a bit better. Schumi I'm not sure of, wa really fancying the Ferrari over the winter but it has in testing looked a bit average - could blow everyone away but doubt it. I think it's a straight fight between the three and I'm going for Montoya to take a place in the top 3 at the end of the season. (Not saying Alonso will win the Championship, just that he is very likely to be top 3) Good luck everyone:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilly2411 Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Re: Formula 1 2006 long term Stan James have priced up a number of driver groups. The stand out value for me is Juan Pablo Montoya. He is priced at Evens to beat Barrichello (2/1) and Fisichella (5/2) I, like many others feel that Montoya will have a good season and this market is screaming out to me. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robby Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Re: Formula 1 2006 long term The installation of slow lane (read: grandma lanes) in all race tracks for all of the slowass lapdown teams should help Montoya greatly! On a more serious note, his points chase last year would have been real exciting if it wasn't for those two 'last lap' fiascos. Kimi and Juan both have a great chance for stand out seasons if the V8 is deemed dependable, McLaren could have a very good run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Re: Formula 1 2006 long term Kimi and Juan both have a great chance for stand out seasons if the V8 is deemed dependable, McLaren could have a very good run. That's just it though, Mclaren had all kinds of problems with overheating and I just think Kimi and JPM will be fighting each other and the non-reliability of their car too much to be there at the end. Close fight between Alonso & Schuey for me with Button a dark horse. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted March 9, 2006 Author Share Posted March 9, 2006 Re: Formula 1 2006 long term That's just it though, Mclaren had all kinds of problems with overheating and I just think Kimi and JPM will be fighting each other and the non-reliability of their car too much to be there at the end. Close fight between Alonso & Schuey for me with Button a dark horse. :ok Could be a very similar situation to last year for McLaren, except with Montoya a lot closer to Kimi:tongue2. Button isn't exactly a dark horse given the hype around Honda at the moment;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted March 9, 2006 Author Share Posted March 9, 2006 Re: Formula 1 2006 long term SportMotorsport EventFormula 1 2006 SelectionBMW NO PODIUMS Strength10/10 Date22/10/2006 Bookmaker/PriceBetandWin @ 5.00 (Back) ReasoningThis looks a pretty strange price. I don't rate BMW at all for the start of this season and think they'll really struggle. Can't see much imrovement from the Sauber days and Heidfeld is a decent driver but Villeneuve isn't going to help much. I'm sure they'll be able to get it right but it ill be a matter of years rather than months. If I had to rate the teams now I would probably go: Renault, Honda, Ferrari/McLaren, Toyota, Williams, Red Bull, BMW, STR, Midland, Super Aguri. So that's BMW in 8th place and I'm happy to stand by that. I think it will be a big achievement for them to qulaify in the top 10 in more than a couple of races this season and will be battling for 6th-8th place most of the time. It will take a freak race for them to get a podium and 5.00 is a decent price against that happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winbet Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Re: Formula 1 2006 long term Sport Motorsport EventFormula 1 SelectionAlonso to win the championship Strength10/10 Date31/10/2006 Bookmaker/PriceInterwetten @ 3.80 (Back) ReasoningAlonso has the consistency to repeat last years championship win. His car is more reliable than ferrari or mclaren which should see him pick up a lot more podium finishes and ultimately wins. Alonso has the talent and tactical awareness around the circuits to come up trumps again. Another seaosn bet I have taken is to do with the Toyota's who are not in as good a shape as last season: SportMotorsport EventFormula 1 SelectionToyota to have 0-2 inclusive podium places Strength5/10 Date31/10/2006 Bookmaker/PriceBetandWin @ 7.00 (Back) ReasoningToyota seems to be struggling from a lack of pace in pre-season testing and doesn't have the extra hp that it did over other teams last season. If this carries on it could well hamper Toyota's quest for podium finishes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 19, 2006 Author Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Formula 1 2006 long term Someone just emailed me to ask if I thought Alonso was nailed on at this stage;). This is what I replied, and I thought I'd post it here in case it interests anyone else (and to show the crap I backed at the start of the year: damn you Montoya:wall :wall): I agree I think it's a decent price at the moment. Ferrari and Bridgestone have had extremely favourable conditions in the past couple of races. However, with the momentum that Ferrari have the next race is crucial. Renault have a good update coming and they say it will give them 0.3s per lap (they are usually pretty accurate when they say things like this). If they seem to have a performance advantage in Germany then it's all over, but if that's not enough to get back ahead of Ferrari then it could get tight. The thing that puts me off is; when was the last time Alonso retired? I can't remember it was so long ago! Surely, surely, at some point something has to go wrong with his car or someone hits him in the first corner or something. One retirement and again Schumi is right back there. Actually, I think a better bet is Renault to win the constructors @ 1.41 on Betfair. I think Fisichella is driving really well and when Renault get the performance up a bit he can do better than Massa. I think this has about the same chance as the Alonso bet, and the price is quite a bit better if you're looking to put a big amount on. Hope this helps, and good luck whatever you go for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 19, 2006 Author Share Posted July 19, 2006 Re: Formula 1 2006 long term ...also we've got some circuits coming up which will suit the McLarens. Not sure they can challenge Alonso and Schumi for wins but they can certainly get involved with Fisi and Massa which should favour Renault as it will stop Ferrari getting more points off them. Plus if a track favours Michelin, at least Kimi can probably beat both Ferraris and they'll really struggle. Gap between Renault and Ferrari is 21pts and that's a lot with 7 races to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bamse81 Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Formula 1 2006 long term Top notch work Mr I. Youre a credit to PL buddy :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muse Posted July 20, 2006 Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Formula 1 2006 long term McLaren's usually come good in the second half of the season and coming into Germany, Mercedes home circuit they need a strong result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted July 20, 2006 Author Share Posted July 20, 2006 Re: Formula 1 2006 long term Top notch work Mr I. Youre a credit to PL buddy :ok Cheers mate:ok To show I like this bet, I might make a play on Renault in the constructors outright next week when liquidity should be a bit better on Betfair. McLaren's usually come good in the second half of the season and coming into Germany, Mercedes home circuit they need a strong result. Usually they're still trying to make it reliable at this stage:lol. Places like Hockenheim, Hungary and China they should be pretty strong if the tyres are good:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.