k-f Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Hi, I've developed some software which can talk to BetFair and read markets/place bets etc etc. I've got it working a very simple system on In-Play football matches and it's doing ok so far... but not much above breaking even. I toyed with a doubling up staking idea to improve things, but the fear of wiping out the bank roll after being supremely unlucky for a few times in a row just doesn't appeal. Has anyone out there got a system which works consistently, can be determined solely on the odds, but which is perhaps really too mind-numbingly dull to want to bother to run yourself, but which a bot could happily trundle away with?? And that they're willing to share with me?? :D Thanks, kf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. :welcome to PL k-f, I'm sure a few people will reply to this, namely Datapunter for sure. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k-f Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. Thanks Paul :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clotty Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. I think I might have a few different alternatives for you, K-F. Whether any will work, solely from odds analysis, is difficult to answer, though. I would advise you look at form, league position (and imaybe even injuries) at the very least, before making any bets. However, if you are adamant about only analysing odds, you might want to try something like backing any home team whose odds to win on a standard 1X2 bet are below a certain point (1.75 maybe ... it all depends on how much risk you want to take). However, because no other thought will have gone into the bet, this alone would be dangerous and could possibly lose you money. So to counter act that I'd advise backing the home team under either 'draw no bet' conditions or 'double chance' conditions for a 1X. I hope this makes sense to you, and I can make no guarantees, but I'd certainly expect you would make more money that you'd lose if you're average odds were about 1.3. I do something fairly similar now with x-fold bets on draw no bet conditions and have been winning money, although my picking of the games I bet on not only relies on odds, but many, many different things that would fill up a whole 'nother thread in itself. But to help me (and probably others) it'd be useful if you could answer the following ... Hope this is of some use ... :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. You willing to share this 'bot', if a 'system' is suggested. If you can produce a 'bot' that downloads numerous match's to EXCEL and allows EXCEL to monitor the match's and 'trigger' bets back to Betfair via the 'bot', then we could be cooking-on-gas.:D I'm aware of the 'gruss' software that allows EXCEL triggered betting, but I don't think it can monitor numerous match's ..... mind you I haven't tried to!!;) Using the 'gruss' software I've set-up my own 'Ladder-Trading' system, which is still being developed, but you can get the gist of it at : http://www.thunderfoot.f2s.com/ladder_trading/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k-f Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. Had a quick look at your spreadsheet... you're looking for directions of shifting odds right? And locking in small profits by backing and laying the same option at differing odds?? If that works consistently, and you could give me details on how to select appropriate markets and times to do things, I could code my bot to scan all markets on all of BetFair for matching matkets - automatically determine the direction the odds are moving (using your maths) and then automatically place the back and lay bets. You wouldn't have to do a thing. No need for a spreadsheet. The software is written to run on any web server also, so you don't even need to maintain your own internet connection. I could make it hunt for arbs - but there's the risk that another bot has grabbed the arb mine's spotted before mine does and it'll end up with unmatched bets in one selection or another... so tempting to try though!! But too risky I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k-f Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. Would I share the bot... not with everyone! But certainly with anyone who gave me a system which I subsequently try as a bot and it works. Not before though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. My thoughts aren't anything to do with what I have already i.e. a 'Trading' system. More interested in Football games i.e. LAYing the Draw (providing it meets a certain criteria), then BACKing the Draw when a Goal has been scored. The BACK stake must be of an amount to Green-Up creating a WIN/WIN situation, NOT a Win/No Lose situation. The maths for calculating the BACK bet to Green-Up is straight forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k-f Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. LOL - that's exactly what I've been doing for the last 2 weeks. I'm up from a starting bank of £40 to £90.75. My system laid £20 at 3.6 on the draw between Barcelona & Chelsea which is currently in play (17 mins into match) and the odds of the draw have dropped to 3.3 on the BACK side. Fingers crossed for a goal... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k-f Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. But as I increase stakes there's fewer and fewer matches to work on that are liquid enough. And I think my increase to £90.75 from £40.00 is due to the fact that I've simply been lucky so far. I need another system. 18 mins, 3.25 :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. :welcome k-f,....wait until you hit a 0-0 match.......that'll sort your £90.75 out!!! :rollin I'm also trading in the Barcelona match.... but I prefer to risk waiting 20 mins. or so, and getting a better lay price.....3.2 or less. The thread running at the moment entitled 'Trading on Soccer Games' in the systems forum may be of interest to you.... GL., :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. Hi k-f :welcome to PL I was hoping to come across something similar to the software you mentioned. I, like thunderfoot, use gruss' Betting Assistant for betting in excel, but am infamous now, on this site, for my internet connection (or lack thereof). Just set up a website this morning on bravenet hoping that it was possible to make a webpage or similar do the bets so my dodgy connection wasn't an issue. Still have no idea of how to go about this as i only know VBA, but maybe there's hope. A system that works? :unsure I'm manually testing a horse racing system that looked like it should do well longterm (from the massey site data), but am struggling to get anything profitable. All i can think of if you are looking for guaranteed profits are arbs. Not the straightforward overround and underround (+/- 100%), but looking at the 0-0 score prices and comparing them against the more than 1 goal odds - kinda looking at the same thing form another angle and taking the profit from there. Also in the past i have created small arbs in this way to "force" someone to take my odds from one market when i have staked in another market. Very tedious to make money that way though and i usually got bored after a while waiting. Just make sure that you have a stoploss factored in to whatever you do. (especially if taking my advice) :ok good luck with this George Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. Go collect mate the goal has come... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. ...Hope you did, k-f. There will be one or two greedy Traders who tried to squeeze out the last drop of profit from the match......and got stung by the equaliser in the dying seconds of the match.....!! :rollin :spank Greedy Traders! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k-f Posted March 8, 2006 Author Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. I was watching Holby City when my system decided enough time had passed and backed the draw at 2.14 to secure a guaranteed loss of about £13.65. In the 30 or so matches I've run it on so far, this is the 6th it's had to do this on. Obviously spreadman, if I'd let it run full term I'd have been stung for £52 (on my £20 lay @ 3.6), but I'd thought of that hey. BUT!! My software is launched repeatedly as a scheduled task on my web based server, and what I didn't realise was that if a task isn't launched due to high server load at the required time, it gets launched again later... and this resulted in it being launched twice at the same time!!! So the bloody thing backed the draw, twice, at 2.14!! I had to manually place another bet against the draw. I ended up losing £10 because it WAS a draw in the end and I'd got the lose amount slightly unbalanced across the options. Time for a token system on my software I think - so it can only run once at any time... georgej - thanks for your post... arbs across different markets... it's certainly a thought. I have looked at picking those up manually but like you say it's bloomin tedious - and I found that the odds are so tightly controlled that it's very rare to find one... but yeah, with some software doing the whole thing for me, might be worth having another look at it. Hmmmm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. :\ Hard luck, k-f, that's one of the major drawbacks with bots and auto trade software....hope Holby City was worth it !!! :rollin :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. K-F, If you're going solely on odds analysis, I have 2 ideas. First is trying to identify arb opportunities on different markets on the same match. i.e. Betting on the correct score market to be 0-0 and laying the Next goal scorer market for no next goal, when the odds on offer create an arb opportunity. I can't imagine this happens often, but I'm assuming you can do it quite easily with the API. The other system would be on horse racing, something along the lines of whats on offer at thevalueplace.co.uk (check the value place forum on here). Basically it involves comparing the place odds to the win odds and using that to determine whether to back or lay a horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k-f Posted March 8, 2006 Author Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. spreadman - I consider the cold calculated choice to back out of a situation at a certain point to be one of the major advantages of using a bot. If I'd let my emotions get away with me and let it run full-term and there'd been no goal, I'd have lost £52 or a good % of that. Also, I can be laying/backing bets on a shedload of matches at once. I did 13 at once last saturday! There's no way I could manually have done that. mcgin - I'd not thought of that arb opportunity, cheers for that I'll check it out :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 8, 2006 Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. Also k-f, is there documentation available for the API? I've looked on the API site but not found anything. Do you only get it when you sign up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k-f Posted March 8, 2006 Author Share Posted March 8, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. Yeah, there's even a forum - and no you don't need to sign up. All of my efforts are using the FreeAPI which simply requires that you have a BF account. Here's the page you're after: http://bdp.betfair.com/developers.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. Ah, last time I looked there was no free api :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 10, 2006 Share Posted March 10, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. K_F, In-Play Horse Racing. When a Horses Odds meets a predetermined figure, say 1.25, and the next best odds on another horse are over a predetermined figure, say 5.00, then BACK the Horse whose Odds 'were' at 1.25. I say 'were' because of the 5 second delay, so you'll probably have to fire-in a bet at 1.01 to pick up the best available BACK odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k-f Posted March 12, 2006 Author Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. I like it. Shame about the 5 second delay, but good call on requesting 1.01 to guarantee the bet is placed at what's available. I've watched a few in-play horse races though - and often it seems to swing crazily in the direction of one horse, only to swing to another in the last few seconds... but I think I might code this and see how it goes anyway. I like the fact that if it fails to get a bet in at any point, there's nothing lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. k-f,Interesting offer :)I have something that I think would work if automated - too boring/hard to do manually though. PM with your email if you're interested... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. i have been doing the same horse racing in-play system for a few weeks, manually using the BetAngel free software. after an initial good start i got stung a few times, and decided it's not for me. didnt make any money long term. points to remember: people laying short odds in running are going to be pros with their own API, in my opinion there is no reason to think that you can get good value odds / consistently skim off profit in this way. quite often odds are back and forth as k-f says. you are vulnerable to nasty (or clever) people who are aware of auto bots and could artificially drop the odds at times where there is not much money available on the market, activating your bet at poor value. one example of a race where i messed up (and your system might): all the horses were at long odds except for one which had dropped to 1.2, so i backed it. however it never fell to 1.01 at the end of the race, it turned out that the horse had barged another onto the rails so people were concerned it would los the stewards enquiry, which it did. unfortunately i dont think there's any magic formula if you're only using odds, you need to identify opportunities where you think there will be market movement and concentrate on those - doing it indicriminitely wont work, but you only need a tiny edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbi Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. i no longer do any of this stuff but one market i would recommend is tennis. the markets move much more predictably and there's plenty of liquidity. a good one is to lay roger federer before the start of the match against low ranked opposition (federer will often be 1.02 or 1.01). once people realise the other guy can get the ball back over the net a few times, federer usually drifts out a bit to say 1.07. similar things happen in-play with cup football matches if the part timers survive 5 mins or so against Man United. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. Bet Trading using horse racing market changes. Feel free to contact me. My e-mail address is on my profile or p.m. Cheers Ray. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k-f Posted March 12, 2006 Author Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. k-f' date='Interesting offer :)I have something that I think would work if automated - too boring/hard to do manually though. PM with your email if you're interested...[/quote'] PM's not working for me at the moment for some reason... email me on kf at kite-fantastic.co.uk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. PM's not working for me at the moment for some reason... email me on kf at kite-fantastic.co.uk Interesting site :) but I wasn't sure where the email contact was. Anyhow - you can email me on [email protected] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 13, 2006 Share Posted March 13, 2006 Re: I can program with BetFair API - just need a decent system. K-F, Are you able to 'read' data from another website? My thoughts are: Intraday Trading on the FTSE and/or DJI using Betfair. If you can also link the Index's from Yahoo Finance, which can be up-to-date more often than it is delayed (you can see when it's delayed because the 'Trade Time' is also shown); then set the program to fire-in bets when the odds have dropped to, say 1.20, AND the Index is over/under a certain number of points. The 'accuracy' of the Index on Yahoo Finance would be checked by using the 'Trade Time'. I've noticed that the 'Trade Time' seems to begin being delayed some time after 1:00 pm, and then it's only by a few minutes. .... and the good thing about Intraday is that it's live ..... no 5 second delay!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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