Cheltenham Festival Trends

[Aykay1]

Hi chaps, I have posted these trends for the last couple of years. Two years ago they came in pretty useful and the results tended to go the way the historic trends suggested they should. Last years results included 2 or 3 that "bucked" the historic trends though, so obviously dont take them as gospel. they are for information purposes really. Nevertheless, they should help narrow down some of the more competitive fields at the Festival. After all, a loser avoided is as good as a winner in my book :) One thing i will need some help with, I think some of the races may have changed their names - Mildmay of Flete for example. If so, let me know and i'll edit the thread to reflect this. Im not too up to date with that sort of thing im afraid. Alternatively, i think any of the mods can go in themselves and change any mistakes ive made with the names of the races - feel free to do this :) Its a bit early to put these trends to any use yet as we really need the fields finalised but as the Festival approaches, ill try and get some discussion going. :ok Cheers AK

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Festival Trends THE SUPREME NOVICES: - 28 out of the last 31 races have gone to 5 or 6 year olds. - 2 of the other 3 have gone to Martin Pipes 4 year olds (8lb allowance) - All but 1 winner since 1996 won on its last start. - Flat breds won every race except for 2 years ago since 1996 - Irish have won 8 of the last 13 runnings THE ARKLE - 17 of the last 19 winners were 1st or 2nd on their last completed outing. This trend would go back to 1970 had Borren Prince not swerved off the course when leading in its final prep race in 1985. - 6 year olds have a strong record in this race. Half of all six year olds to have run in the last 10 years have managed a placing. - Well Chief was the first 5 year old to win the race since their their allowance was cut from 8lbs to 5lbs- Historically, five year olds need to be special to win this race. - French breds have a good record. they have won the race 5 times and finished 2nd twice since 1993. CHAMPION HURDLE -6 year olds have nearly a 50% strike rate in this in the last 25 years and filled 3 of the first 5 paces last year. - 24 9 and 10 year olds have tried in the last decade and apart from the 9 year old Rooster Booster 2 years ago, one 4th place is the best they have managed - 18 of the last 20 winners won their last race. - Previous experience at Cheltenham is a big advantage. WILLIAM HILL NATIONAL HUNT HANDICAP CHASE - We need a horse between 8-11 years old. - 26 runners who were 7 or younger in the last 10 years have produced only 2 winners, in 1994 and 2005. - Only 3 horses age 12 or over have won any kind of race at Cheltenham since 1980 - Can’t really afford to be out of the handicap, especially when the going is good/firm or faster. Only 2 of the 34 runners trying from out of the handicap have succeeded in 56 years. HAUT CERCY went close 2 years ago though. - Need to be carrying less than 11stone 2 lb’s Only 2 horses out of 24 have succeeded carrying more than this. - Ignore Pipe/Nicholls runners here ¡V their record in this race is poor. THE FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE FOR AMATEUR RIDERS - Only 2 of the 85 runners aged older than 9 have won this race in the last 12 years. - Its 36 years since the last 6 year old won. - Only two winners in the last 18 years has carried more than 11 stone, after deducting riders allowances. - 9 of the previous 12 winners had been in the first 3 on their previous run. 7 of the last 9 were first or second previously - You need a good amateur jockey.

THE PERTEMPS HURDLE FINAL - 31 horses 10 years old or over have managed only one placing between them in the last 11 years and its 20 years since the last such winner. - Similarly, be wary of 5 years olds and under. There have been 21 runners in the last 12 runnings with no winners. - 6 and 7 year olds have taken the race on 16 of the last 22 occasions. - Only 4 of the last 30 runnings went to those carrying less than 10st 8lbs - 8 of the last 12 winners won on their previous outing - 10 of the last 12 winners had taken breaks of more than 30 days - this is a tough race. - All of the last 11 winners were hold up horses. It’s difficult to front run in this race. THE R&SA NOVICE HURDLE - 5 and 6 year olds have provided the winner of 28 out of the last 31 runnings. - Since 1970, the winner has been in the first two on its previous run. THE R&SA CHASE - Only 2 9 year olds have taken this in the last 41 runnings. Only one has been placed in the last 11 runnings and that was in a small field. - 10 of the last 12 winners have been in the first 5 in the betting. - 28 of the last 31 were 1st or 2nd on their last run. - 8 of the last 12 winners had breaks less than 38 days. - Ignore Flat Breds - they have a poor record. - French breds have a good record. THE QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE - Ignore older than 10 or younger than 7 years old. Moscow Flyer bucked this trend last year, but he is a special horse. - 40 of the last 46 runnings have gone to the first 3 in the market. - Its been 25 years since the winner failed to record a placing on its previous run. - 17 of the last 21 winners all won or placed at the previous festival. Two of the remainder had won good chases at Cheltenham outside the festival. - 13 of the last 16 winners had won over 20f. THE CORAL CUP - Avoid 5 year olds - no weight allowance. 55 have tried and failed since 1993. only 1 of these was placed. - Need to carry less than 11 stone.

- Irish are very strong in this race. - 8 of the last 12 winners had no more than 3 prior runs and 3 of the other 4 had 4 runs - had their marks protected. - Hold up horses are favoured - ignore front runners. THE NATIONAL HUNT STEEPLECHASE FOR AMATEUR RIDERS. - First 6 in betting - aged 7 or more - at least placed last time - leading amateur jockey. RACING POST PLATE - Only one winner of the last 12 carried more than 11 stone to victory. - Martin Pipe is strong in 20f chases here. - 32 out of the last 38 win/place positions have been placed on its previous outing. CHAMPION BUMPER - 5 year olds have won 9 of the 13 runnings with 4 year olds winning twice. Lat year ws a rare win for a 6 year old- he was a defending champion. - Irish have a strong record. THE TRIUMPH HURDLE - Fillies have won 3 of the last 4 renewals and have had 5 of the placings from only 12 runners to start 12/1 or less. - As at 2004, there had only been one British bred winner of this race in the last 10 years. - As at 2005, there had only been two NH bred winners of this race in the last 11 years. - French breds are strong, they consistently perform well here THE STAYERS HURDLE - 39 horses aged 9 or older have tried in this and only 2 have won - they were winning for the second time. - Pipes fancied runners ( - Novices have a poor record in this tough race and should be avoided. THE FOXHUNTERS CHASE - Horses older than 10 have a weak record. Before Earthmover won last year, there had been 1 winner over 10 years old out of 99 runners since 1996. - Richard Barber has a good record here ¡V he has provided the winner 4 times out of 10 runners. - Similarly, Caroline Bailey has had a winner and 2 seconds from just 9 runners. - Before the last 2 years, a professional stable hadn’t won the race since 1989. - 6 of the last 13 winners had previously won at Cheltenham, 2 others had previously performed well. - 17 of the last 18 winners had won on their previous outing - Only one winner in recent times had not jumped over fences previously. - Ignore ex- quality handicappers coming down the ranks.

THE GRAND ANNUAL - 12 of the last 20 winners carried more than 10st 8lbs. - Market leaders are favoured in this race. - 10 of the last 14 winners were in the first 5 in the betting - 28 of the last 31 winners were no bigger than 10/1 - 15 of the last 17 winners had finished in the first 4 on their previous run. One of the 2 exceptions to this trend, St Pirran, fell on his previous outing but before that was 3^rd. - 9 out of the last 12 winners had run within 28 days. - As at last years festival, Tony McCoy had had 16 rides in 2 mile chases at the festival and had finished in the first 2 on 11 of those occasions, so keep an eye on his mount. THE CATHCART - 16 of the last 17 winners were in the first 3 on their previous run. ¡V the exception was a previous winner of the race. - 10 of the last 12 had a break of 5 weeks or more. - First season Novices have taken 8 of the last 12 outings. - 2 French bred 5 year olds have a 100% record, both were trained by Pipe. - 5 year olds have a good record. THE VINCENT OBRIEN COUNTY HURDLE - 5 and 6 year olds have won 35 of the last 43 runnings. - Need to carry less than 11 stone. Has only been 3 winners carrying more than this in 30 years ¡V all were exceptional animals. Rooster Booster in 2002, and the other 2 were imperial cup winners from 5 days previously. - Until last year, 167 horses have failed to win whilst running from out of the handicap since 1980. Last year was an exception with 1/3 of the field running from outside the handicap due to the presence of a couple of very high class horses. This isn’t usual but beware of this happening again for this years field. - Since 1987 only 2 winners have been out of the first 4 on the previous run. 11 winners since then have been in the first 2 on the previous run. - Winners tend to have run more than 6 times that year. - 4 out of the last 8 winners had been placed at Cheltenham earlier in the season