Penalty Kick

[jeffers]

I know a lot of people here don;t like short prices, and this certainly will be, but in the 4.45 Wolvo tomorrow, Nayyir has an absolute certain victory:

No.		Form	Horse, breeding	Age	Wgt	Jockey/trainer	RPR
1(2)		09-4	Always Esteemed(IRE) 22 b g Mark Of Esteem (IRE) — Always Far (USA)	6	9-3b	N Callan K A Ryan	113
2(3)		2-43	Appalachian Trail(IRE) 22 b g Indian Ridge — Karinski (USA)	5	9-3b	T Eaves I Semple	114
3(4)		870-	Impeller(IRE) 119 ch g Polish Precedent (USA) — Almaaseh (IRE)	7	9-3	Martin Dwyer W R Muir	115
4(5)		4751	Hurricane Coast 19 b g Hurricane Sky (AUS) — Tread Carefully	7	8-13b	J P Spencer K McAuliffe	94
5(1)		464-	Nayyir 144 ch g Indian Ridge — Pearl Kite (USA)	8	8-13	E Ahern G A Butler	136

Can anybody suggest a reason why I shouldn't be having an absolutely massive bet on this? :eek

[bowles10]

Re: Penalty Kick ok only raced on AW twice (back in 2002 made debut won at 1/3 then got turned over at 4/7 finished last of 6). The horse is a 7f / 1m specialist, this extra 141 yds COULD make all the difference. The horse has to be held up & will therefore try to win round the final turn where there is only 2F to make up ground. Only 1 horse can make the pace here - Always esteemed who did put up a good show LTO & could reverse the placings with Applachian Trail. Impeller, Applachian & nayyir are all hold up horses. I am just wondering whether Always Esteemed could take them off at such a pace that will play into the stayers hands perhaps Impeller who has never raced on the AW but is also an interesting runner. Positives are that the jockey is the kIng of AW & can time his run to perfection as always. At the price, i just think it could be a LAY rather than a solid investment?

[jeffers]

Re: Penalty Kick OK. Those two AW races were the first of his career - there's been a lot of water under the bridge since then. Just look at the form: 27/09 - 4th in Grp3 behind Arakan & New Seeker 13/08 - 6th in Grp3, big flop 27/07 - 4th in Grp1 Sussex Stakes 4l behind Soviet Song 25/06 - 3rd in Grp3 28/08/04 - 2nd in Grp1 Sussex Stakes Althogh I see what you're saying, with Ahern on board, I think he'll make sure the run goes as planned. Even if, as it may well do, it comes to needing a big turn of foot 2f out, I don't see a problem. :unsure