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Fleet's UK Footie Trebles

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traf

traf

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles I should never have doubted the strategy of having Chelsea in all 3 bets, should I? I can now see how intuitive you really are, in making an 11/10 bet the cornerstone of the day's action. ;) I take my hat off to you, sir. Well done!

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FleetFanatic

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

Shame the others were crap eh? End of season...... C'MON SOUTHAMPTON. 5-fold Selections I'm gonna take: 30 Chelsea 11/10 :clap 18 Southampton 1/1 :clap 14 Scunthorpe 6/5 :clap 21 Boston 6/5 :clap 29 Grays 11/10 :@ £5 5-fold to return £213.44 £5 4-folds to return £101.64 :clap , £97.02, £97.02, £106.72 & £101.64 £30 total staked in an attempt to return a total of £717.48 :hope Bank now £256.71.
At last the weekend returns something! :clap Treble Selections: Bank now £446.50 Next Bet: £10 7-fold Selections: Bank now £445.00 Next Bet: £10 5-fold Selections Bank now £358.35. Next bet: £30 in £5 4-folds & 5-fold
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daftpegasus

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Hi Fleet I've been following this thread for quite a while now and have a suggestion for you which I believe may make the predictions more accurate and help in the early part of the season. One part of your calculation is League Difference (Pos of Home - Pos of Away). To my mind this is going to be prone to error unless all teams have played the same number of games. In the early part of this season Liverpool played less games than anyone else but had a 100% record (if memory serves me). Therefore they could have been lower in the league than their opposition but only because they'd played a few games less. The early part of the season when 3 points makes a big difference to the league position is another situation where I think this postion-based calculation could prove misleading. Would it not be better to have some type of calculation based on Points Per Game? I believe this will give a more accurate reflection of how well the side. I have done a number of formulae ranging from simple to more complex around this (happy to share them with you) and the other thing it throws up, which I think is positive, is that teams only one position apart can have a more than 1 point value. i.e. if Birmingham (H) played Sunderland (A) are they really only 1 point better off for the calculation? Then again, the system is doing well at the moment so prehaps you should ignore any other advice and stick with it. DP

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muppet77

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

Hi Fleet I've been following this thread for quite a while now and have a suggestion for you which I believe may make the predictions more accurate and help in the early part of the season. One part of your calculation is League Difference (Pos of Home - Pos of Away). To my mind this is going to be prone to error unless all teams have played the same number of games. In the early part of this season Liverpool played less games than anyone else but had a 100% record (if memory serves me). Therefore they could have been lower in the league than their opposition but only because they'd played a few games less. The early part of the season when 3 points makes a big difference to the league position is another situation where I think this postion-based calculation could prove misleading. Would it not be better to have some type of calculation based on Points Per Game? I believe this will give a more accurate reflection of how well the side. I have done a number of formulae ranging from simple to more complex around this (happy to share them with you) and the other thing it throws up, which I think is positive, is that teams only one position apart can have a more than 1 point value. i.e. if Birmingham (H) played Sunderland (A) are they really only 1 point better off for the calculation? Then again, the system is doing well at the moment so prehaps you should ignore any other advice and stick with it. DP
what, like creating a league table based on points per game, then using THESE positions, rather than actual league positions? the actual league table is likely to change more early doors, but don't forget that the form part of the equation needs 6 games worth, so it shouldn't really be done until the 7th game - probably the start of October? just a thought.
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FleetFanatic

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

what, like creating a league table based on points per game, then using THESE positions, rather than actual league positions? the actual league table is likely to change more early doors, but don't forget that the form part of the equation needs 6 games worth, so it shouldn't really be done until the 7th game - probably the start of October? just a thought.
Hmmm that'll take some time every week. Well I'm on holiday the first 2 weeks of next season anyway. I will be having some football punts but they won't be very systematic and certainly won't be posted on here until we have 6 games worth of data!
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daftpegasus

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

what, like creating a league table based on points per game, then using THESE positions, rather than actual league positions? the actual league table is likely to change more early doors, but don't forget that the form part of the equation needs 6 games worth, so it shouldn't really be done until the 7th game - probably the start of October? just a thought.
:ok Yes a bit like that but with a bit more behind it. If Team A has got an average of 2.5 points per game and Team B has 1.5 PPG then a simple calculation of multiplying each by 10 gives Team A 25 and Team B 15. Therefore you subsititue this score (25-15) in place of the difference in league positions - I feel this would give a more accurate reflection of the difference between the 2 sides than simply league position where Team B could have played a few more games than Team A and thus be relatively similar in the table. In terms of the work to do this it's relatively simple. Copy and paste a copy of the table from a website into Excel and then simply add a formulae to get PPG (and any other formulae you may wish to use to complete your calculations).:loon I agree that any system can't be used from Day 1 as it needs the initial statistical data in order to work.:cheers
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smyther

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles hey guys i worked on a system myself which isnt nearly as good as this anyways i had the same problem with early leagues and what to do.. and using las years tables is what i considered for the first few games but new season brings all sorts up its hard to know.. and maybe even harder to calculate every angle.. jus a thought..:unsure

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FleetFanatic

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles 30+ qualifiers (odds >bet365): NONE! 20+ qualifiers: 29 Arsenal (1/5) 29 Man Utd (1/5) 26 Blackburn (4/6) 25 Bolton (8/13) 22 Bristol Rovers (6/5) 20 Lincoln (8/15) Treble Selections: (best 3 odds from 30+ teams) NO BET THEN Bank now £446.50 7-fold Selections: (best 7 of ALL qualifiers) NO BET THEN Bank now £445.00 5-fold Selections The only bet where the rules let me play - I'm gonna take: 19 Everton 4/6 5 Leeds 6/5 1 Oldham 10/11 22 Bristol Rovers 6/5 26 Morecambe 7/5 1 x £5 5-fold to return £184.80 5 x £5 4-folds to return £77.00, £84.00, £96.80, £84.00 & £110.88 £30 staked in an attempt to return £637.48 Bank now £328.35.

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FleetFanatic

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

30+ qualifiers (odds >bet365): NONE! 20+ qualifiers: 29 Arsenal (1/5) 29 Man Utd (1/5) 26 Blackburn (4/6) 25 Bolton (8/13) 22 Bristol Rovers (6/5) 20 Lincoln (8/15)
This is why there were so few qualifiers: Saturday, 06 May 2006 The Coca-Cola Football League Championship Crystal Palace 0 - 3 Watford Coca-Cola Football League One Blackpool 3 - 3 Gillingham Bournemouth 2 - 2 Brentford Bradford 1 - 1 Nottm Forest Chesterfield 0 - 4 Swansea Hartlepool 1 - 1 Port Vale (Hartlepool are relegated) Oldham 1 - 1 Scunthorpe Rotherham 0 - 0 Milton Keynes Dons (Milton Keynes are relegated) Southend 1 - 0 Bristol City (Southend are champions) Swindon 0 - 0 Huddersfield Tranmere 0 - 2 Doncaster Walsall 1 - 2 Barnsley Yeovil 0 - 0 Colchester (Colchester are promoted) Coca-Cola Football League Two Bristol Rovers 2 - 3 Macclesfield Chester 0 - 1 Shrewsbury Darlington 1 - 1 Wrexham Grimsby 1 - 1 Northampton Lincoln City 1 - 1 Rochdale Mansfield 0 - 5 Cheltenham Notts County 2 - 2 Bury Oxford Utd 2 - 3 Leyton Orient Peterborough 0 - 2 Wycombe Rushden & D'monds 1 - 2 Barnet Stockport 0 - 0 Carlisle (Carlisle are champions) Torquay 0 - 0 Boston Utd Nationwide Conference Halifax 3 - 2 Grays Athletic I see just 2 home wins! END OF SEASON POSITIONS: Treble Selections: Bank now £446.50 +/-: +346.50 7-fold Selections: Bank now £445.00 +/-: +345.00 5-fold Selections Bank now £328.35 +/-: +28.35 (Only started this one near the end of the season!) Guys, it's been a pleasure - see you on this thread sometime in September, unless I see a summer opportunity!
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aliando

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles ff - i've only watched this thread with interest :cry but i'm certainly gonna be one of the many watching next season (and probably putting some money on the trebles too this time!!!:wall) :notworthy - well done mate - fully deserved!

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kevsul

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles :clap :clap Fleet as you know , I followed alot towards the end and won a few quid. I wish this major continued success.:ok :ok And lets hope for a more profitable season.. when it starts:clap

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FleetFanatic

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

:clap :clap Fleet as you know , I followed alot towards the end and won a few quid. I wish this major continued success.:ok :ok And lets hope for a more profitable season.. when it starts:clap
I hope so, considering we only started in January & had 4 months - next season we'll play for 8 months. :ok Cheers to the rest of you too. :cheers
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FleetFanatic

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Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

fleet - i already have sheets set up for the norwegian, swedish and finnish leagues if you fancy a hand? not that many 30+s yet, but a few 20+s
Excellent stuff, as I can't find all the early results for these leagues. 20+ I think is the level to aim at, as the leagues are smaller (therefore smaller league position differences)
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