Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

edtkh · January 9, 2006

About time someone got a thread underway for the first Grand Slam and major tournament of the year given it's set to start in a week's time. To kick things off, I will start off with some decent tournament bets(since the draws are still not out as I write) and a brief preview just yet... In the men's draw, it's fairly obvious there's pretty much only 1 man who should be fancied for the outright market(not speaking for back-and-lay traders though) if anyone's serious about any sort of a return. Roger Federer has escalated into a totally different stratosphere from just about everyone else on the ATP circuit over the last 2 years he's pretty much in a league of his own at the moment - just like Phil Taylor for darts and Lance Armstrong for cycling(for the past 7 years anyway), he's just about the only tennis icon(well, maybe one of two, if you included Agassi) in the modern game who's pretty much well-known even to people who do not follow tennis closely. While the prices for Federer(1.57 @ Betfair) have plummeted somewhat over the last week(from 1.70 @ Betfair), I still can't see past him for the title, especially in the light of so many of his closest challengers not exactly being on top of their game or having fitness doubts. With Agassi having withdrawn, Nadal and Safin are doubtful, Hewitt has had a shocking week in Adelaide while Roddick has still to get involved in a tournament since he had his long layoff at the back-end of 2005, I suppose it's fair to say it'd take more than a miracle to halt FedEx cruising to his 7th Grand Slam. Even in terms of value alone, the 1.57 on offer is very generous and offers as much value as any 1.57 bet on the market one can find IMO. That said, I'd still fancy Roddick to win if, draw permitting, there was a 'betting w/o Federer' market. In the ladies' half, the competition certainly looks much keener, but I personally still wouldn't look past 3 players for the outright market. With neither of the Williams sisters in any shape or form to threaten those 3, I feel the 2006 winner wouldn't come from outside these 3 : Clijsters, Henin-Hardenne and Davenport. I'd said for years Clijsters was somewhat of a bottler over the years in Grand Slams and been reluctant to back her for the major tournaments, but I'm certainly convinced her success at last year's US Open has helped her turn the page. While I wouldn't say the value on her is fantastic at 3.60(@ Betfair), here's someone I feel will definitely figure in the quarter-finals at the very least and should still provide a tremendous proposition for a back-and-lay opportunity. Nevertheless, I don't think Clijsters is that great a proposition in terms of value considering she'd probably stand no better than a 50-50 shot at best against either Davenport or Henin-Hardenne. Similarly, Henin-Hardenne did not have the rosiest of years in 2005, but still performed reasonably well to win the French Open despite a series of injuries. That said, despite her petite frame, her mental strength and experience at the highest level could well prove decisive as it's hardly a secret mental toughness counts for an awful lot in the women's game. As far as I'm concerned, she's certainly the toughest of the 3 IMO and I'd certainly fancy Henin-Hardenne(7.00 @ Betfair) at the generous price she's currently being traded at. Davenport is certainly someone who has rolled back the years a tad in 2005 with a couple of stellar performances in the major tournaments - to have made the finals at the Australian Open and Wimbledon last year was certainly a great credit to someone who'd been contemplating retirement just prior to the start of last year. On her day, she has certainly got a good enough game to trouble just about anyone even if she's not exactly the most athletic - her superb shot-making game more than compensates for that IMO. Nevertheless, Davenport (8.00 @ Betfair) is still a very serious contender, although I'd still fancy Henin-Hardenne over Davenport for value. In essence, the winners of the respective tournaments for me would be : Men's Winner : R Federer Women's Winner : J Henin-Hardenne I will be back with more when the draws are out. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok