Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

[edtkh]

About time someone got a thread underway for the first Grand Slam and major tournament of the year given it's set to start in a week's time. To kick things off, I will start off with some decent tournament bets(since the draws are still not out as I write) and a brief preview just yet... In the men's draw, it's fairly obvious there's pretty much only 1 man who should be fancied for the outright market(not speaking for back-and-lay traders though) if anyone's serious about any sort of a return. Roger Federer has escalated into a totally different stratosphere from just about everyone else on the ATP circuit over the last 2 years he's pretty much in a league of his own at the moment - just like Phil Taylor for darts and Lance Armstrong for cycling(for the past 7 years anyway), he's just about the only tennis icon(well, maybe one of two, if you included Agassi) in the modern game who's pretty much well-known even to people who do not follow tennis closely. While the prices for Federer(1.57 @ Betfair) have plummeted somewhat over the last week(from 1.70 @ Betfair), I still can't see past him for the title, especially in the light of so many of his closest challengers not exactly being on top of their game or having fitness doubts. With Agassi having withdrawn, Nadal and Safin are doubtful, Hewitt has had a shocking week in Adelaide while Roddick has still to get involved in a tournament since he had his long layoff at the back-end of 2005, I suppose it's fair to say it'd take more than a miracle to halt FedEx cruising to his 7th Grand Slam. Even in terms of value alone, the 1.57 on offer is very generous and offers as much value as any 1.57 bet on the market one can find IMO. That said, I'd still fancy Roddick to win if, draw permitting, there was a 'betting w/o Federer' market. In the ladies' half, the competition certainly looks much keener, but I personally still wouldn't look past 3 players for the outright market. With neither of the Williams sisters in any shape or form to threaten those 3, I feel the 2006 winner wouldn't come from outside these 3 : Clijsters, Henin-Hardenne and Davenport. I'd said for years Clijsters was somewhat of a bottler over the years in Grand Slams and been reluctant to back her for the major tournaments, but I'm certainly convinced her success at last year's US Open has helped her turn the page. While I wouldn't say the value on her is fantastic at 3.60(@ Betfair), here's someone I feel will definitely figure in the quarter-finals at the very least and should still provide a tremendous proposition for a back-and-lay opportunity. Nevertheless, I don't think Clijsters is that great a proposition in terms of value considering she'd probably stand no better than a 50-50 shot at best against either Davenport or Henin-Hardenne. Similarly, Henin-Hardenne did not have the rosiest of years in 2005, but still performed reasonably well to win the French Open despite a series of injuries. That said, despite her petite frame, her mental strength and experience at the highest level could well prove decisive as it's hardly a secret mental toughness counts for an awful lot in the women's game. As far as I'm concerned, she's certainly the toughest of the 3 IMO and I'd certainly fancy Henin-Hardenne(7.00 @ Betfair) at the generous price she's currently being traded at. Davenport is certainly someone who has rolled back the years a tad in 2005 with a couple of stellar performances in the major tournaments - to have made the finals at the Australian Open and Wimbledon last year was certainly a great credit to someone who'd been contemplating retirement just prior to the start of last year. On her day, she has certainly got a good enough game to trouble just about anyone even if she's not exactly the most athletic - her superb shot-making game more than compensates for that IMO. Nevertheless, Davenport (8.00 @ Betfair) is still a very serious contender, although I'd still fancy Henin-Hardenne over Davenport for value. In essence, the winners of the respective tournaments for me would be : Men's Winner : R Federer Women's Winner : J Henin-Hardenne I will be back with more when the draws are out. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) Nice stuff ed:ok This could be a very interesting market when the draw comes out:

Player To Progress The Furthest In Tournament :top.minimiseBook('236179','minbook236179')'> :top.removeBook('236179')'>

Competitor 1 2 [CST] [:top.infoPop('1137369600','Betting on which player progresses the furthest in the Australian Open. Both must start in 1st round for bets to stand. Deadheat rules apply if both eliminated at same stage.','ANCIC v MONFILS - To Progress The Furthest','','1137369600','ATP Australian Open 2006')'>I] [:top.performAllBetting('>AB] Book Closing: 15 Jan 2006 23:59 1. ANCIC, Mario (CRO) 2. MONFILS, Gael (FRA) :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981851,'WinANCIC, Mario (CRO)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EANCIC v MONFILS - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 1.90, '0'))'>1.90 :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981861,'WinMONFILS, Gael (FRA)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EANCIC v MONFILS - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 1.90, '0'))'>1.90 [CST] [:top.infoPop('1137369600','Betting on which player progresses the furthest in the Australian Open. Both must start in 1st round for bets to stand. Deadheat rules apply if both eliminated at same stage.','BLAKE v LJUBICIC - To Progress The Furthest','','1137369600','ATP Australian Open 2006')'>I] [:top.performAllBetting('>AB] Book Closing: 15 Jan 2006 23:59 1. BLAKE, James (USA) 2. LJUBICIC, Ivan (CRO) :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981711,'WinBLAKE, James (USA)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EBLAKE v LJUBICIC - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 2.10, '0'))'>2.10 :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981721,'WinLJUBICIC, Ivan (CRO)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EBLAKE v LJUBICIC - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 1.73, '0'))'>1.73 [CST] [:top.infoPop('1136881800','Betting on which player progresses the furthest in the Australian Open. Both must start in 1st round for bets to stand. Deadheat rules apply if both eliminated at same stage.','DAVYDENKO v GASQUET - To Progress The Furthest','','1136881800','ATP Australian Open 2006')'>I] [:top.performAllBetting('>AB] Book Closing: 10 Jan 2006 08:29 1. DAVYDENKO, Nikolay (RUS) 2. GASQUET, Richard (FRA) :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981731,'WinDAVYDENKO, Nikolay (RUS)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EDAVYDENKO v GASQUET - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 1.90, '0'))'>1.90 1:void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981741,'WinGASQUET, Richard (FRA)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EDAVYDENKO v GASQUET - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 1.90, '0'))'>.90 [CST] [:top.infoPop('1137369600','Betting on which player progresses the furthest in the Australian Open. Both must start in 1st round for bets to stand. Deadheat rules apply if both eliminated at same stage.','HENMAN v MURRAY - To Progress The Furthest','','1137369600','ATP Australian Open 2006')'>I] [:top.performAllBetting('>AB] Book Closing: 15 Jan 2006 23:59 1. HENMAN, Tim (GBR) 2. MURRAY, Andrew (GBR) :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68948051,'WinHENMAN, Tim (GBR)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EHENMAN v MURRAY - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 1.95, '0'))'>1.95 :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68948061,'WinMURRAY, Andrew (GBR)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EHENMAN v MURRAY - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 1.85, '0'))'>1.85 [CST] [:top.infoPop('1137391200','Betting on which player progresses the furthest in the Australian Open. Both must start in 1st round for bets to stand. Deadheat rules apply if both eliminated at same stage.','HRBATY v JOHANSSON - To Progress The Furthest','','1137391200','ATP Australian Open 2006')'>I] [:top.performAllBetting('>AB] Book Closing: 16 Jan 2006 05:59 1. HRBATY, Dominik (SVK) 2. JOHANSSON, Thomas (SWE) :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981791,'WinHRBATY, Dominik (SVK)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EHRBATY v JOHANSSON - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 1.81, '0'))'>1.81 2:void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981801,'WinJOHANSSON, Thomas (SWE)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EHRBATY v JOHANSSON - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 2.00, '0'))'>.00 [CST] [:top.infoPop('1137378600','Betting on which player progresses the furthest in the Australian Open. Both must start in 1st round for bets to stand. Deadheat rules apply if both eliminated at same stage.','MOYA v STEPANEK - To Progress The Furthest','','1137378600','ATP Australian Open 2006')'>I] [:top.performAllBetting('>AB] Book Closing: 16 Jan 2006 02:29 1. MOYA, Carlos (ESP) 2. STEPANEK, Radek (CZE) :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981811,'WinMOYA, Carlos (ESP)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EMOYA v STEPANEK - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 1.90, '0'))'>1.90 :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981821,'WinSTEPANEK, Radek (CZE)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3EMOYA v STEPANEK - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 1.90, '0'))'>1.90 [CST] [:top.infoPop('1137369600','Betting on which player progresses the furthest in the Australian Open. Both must start in 1st round for bets to stand. Deadheat rules apply if both eliminated at same stage.','NALBANDIAN v RODDICK - To Progress The Furthest','','1137369600','ATP Australian Open 2006')'>I] [:top.performAllBetting('>AB] Book Closing: 15 Jan 2006 23:59 1. NALBANDIAN, David (ARG) 2. RODDICK, Andy (USA) :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981771,'WinNALBANDIAN, David (ARG)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3ENALBANDIAN v RODDICK - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 2.00, '0'))'>2.00 :void(top.AddBetToSlip(68981781,'WinRODDICK, Andy (USA)','ATP Australian Open 2006%3Cbr%20/%3ENALBANDIAN v RODDICK - To Progress The Furthest Head To Head', 1.81, '0'))'>1.81

Not much point in looking at the mens outright until the draw come out either:sad

[Tulenos]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) I'm afraid, though, the prices will change rapidly as the draw is released.:(

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

With Agassi having withdrawn, Nadal and Safin are doubtful, Hewitt has had a shocking week in Adelaide while Roddick has still to get involved in a tournament since he had his long layoff at the back-end of 2005

Nadal has withdrawn. Hewitt is :puke

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

Nadal has withdrawn. Hewitt is :puke

Safin has officially withdrawn now too but I don't think anyone expected him to go anyway:unsure

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

UPDATE 1-Injured Clijsters in doubt for Australian Open Wed Jan 11, 2006 9:29 AM GMT By Julian Linden SYDNEY, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Kim Clijsters is doubtful for next week's Australian Open after a hip injury forced her out of the Sydney International on Wednesday. "It's terrible," she told a news conference. "It's not good." The Belgian, ranked second in the world, was due to play Italian Francesca Schiavone in the quarter-finals but withdrew after feeling a sharp pain during her warm-up. Clijsters had problems with her hip last season and said she would not know the extent of her latest injury until she undergoes a scan on Thursday. "I could hardly walk up the stairs. It feels like it's really deep inside," Clijsters said. "I don't know what the injury is. I'll need to have some tests tomorrow." Clijsters said she had minor back pain after flying in to Australia from Hong Kong where she played an exhibition tournament at the weekend. "I don't know if that had something to do with it, maybe it was compensating for my back...I just don't know," she said. "I hurt it warming up. I was hitting for about 20 minutes, just my ground strokes, and I was feeling fine. "Then all of a sudden I just started to do serves and as soon as I served I felt some really sharp pains. "I tried to stretch it out a little bit and do some movements to lossen up my hip or and my back but it just kept getting worse and worse." Clijsters is one of the favourites to win the Australian Open, starting in Melbourne on Monday, after reaching the final two years ago and winning the U.S. Open last September. The 22-year-old has been plagued with injuries since she sprained her ankle at the Hopman Cup in Australia two years ago. She missed last year's Melbourne championship because of a wrist injury and said she could not bear to miss it again. "That's something I don't want to think about yet," she said.

Womens Outright HENIN-HARDENNE @ 7.00 Stan James 2pts With the latest news of Clijsters injury, Henin has to be the sensible play before the draw is made. Now there are doubts over Clijsters, Sharapova, S Williams before the beginning of the tournament and there is always a doubt over Davenport lasting 7 matches. With Mauresmo looking very rusty and losing her first match of the year, Henin looks to be the only top player playing well - she has looked good so far in the tournament in Sydney and Petrova withdrawing giving her a bye will ensure not too many matches before the tournament starts. Oh right, so that's another player injured as well:lol (christ might have to think about backing Hingis!). Henin is a fighter and don't seem to bottle it - characterists you can't automatically put onto so far of her opposition. Henin's record in the Aussie is fine, Quarters in 2002, Semis in 2003 and won in 2004. Didn't play last year so she may see this as a chance to 'defend' her title. Overall record is 20-4 at the Aussie Open. There's every chance of some of her opposition pulling out, or turning up injured - I'm sure this price won't be around when the tournament starts. Let's prey for a good draw:hope

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) Note the Betfair Back-Lay price is 4.7-5.4 and has come in a lot but not much being traded.

[ridle]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) I prefer Davenport at 8.3 Unibet (Price came down to 7 already). But surely Clijsters not fully fit has to be opposed.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

I prefer Davenport at 8.3 Unibet (Price came down to 7 already). But surely Clijsters not fully fit has to be opposed.

:eek :eek 8.3 seems an awful price - Stan James go 13.00

[slapdash]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

:eek :eek 8.3 seems an awful price - Stan James go 13.00

Hmmm, sorry if I'm being stupid, but are you sure that's not the price for Wimbledon? I can't find outright prices on Stan James for the Australian Open.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

Hmmm, sorry if I'm being stupid, but are you sure that's not the price for Wimbledon? I can't find outright prices on Stan James for the Australian Open.

Shit! Yeah the Davenport price is for Wimbledon. I'm sure it was the Australian this morning for the Henin price, but now it's gone. Also Betdirect had a market up but that's gone too. Strange, will have to look into it:unsure

[slapdash]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) Did you place a bet on Henin there this morning? Might be worth checking it was for the Australian before you lay it off at Betfair. Hmm. Her price for Wimbledon is 6/1, which is the price you quoted for the Australian ... :unsure

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

Did you place a bet on Henin there this morning? Might be worth checking it was for the Australian before you lay it off at Betfair.

No I didn't. Surely I'm not THAT stupid:unsure :unsure

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) You know what, I am, I'm THAT stupid. Cancel that Stan James one, still going to take Henin: Womens Outright HENIN-HARDENNE @ 5.50 Eurobet 2pts :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall :wall

[slapdash]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) I've done some more stupid things than that. Like backing the wrong horse in a race because its name was similar to that of a horse that I'd backed the previous day and it was at the same price as the one I actually wanted to back ... ... and winning. :$ At least the 6/1 on Henin for Wimbledon looks like about the best price available. :D

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) I'm sure I've got the right tournament this time:lol Mens Outright RODDICK @ 12.00 EW (1/2 1,2) William Hill 1pt EW Everywhere else has shortened on this since the news that Roddick has been named the second seed. That means no Federer till the final. Quite simply that's the main reason to play this. The only players who I think could hurt Roddick are Hewitt and Nalbandian - and they could end up in Federers half. Also a lot of doubts over Hewitt I feel after another very poor defeat in Sydney. Physically he doesn't seem right and he has to be (more so than probably anyone else) in order to get the job done over 7 5 set matches. Also Roddick got a win over Hewitt on hard courts last year which must help him as Hewitt had started to dominate that H2H. Nalbandian also withdrew from the Exhibition tournament this week with a stomich upset so he is getting no matches and may not be 100% coming into this. Roddick is getting some matches in the exhibition, and looked good when taking Monfils apart a couple of days ago. In the past 3 years Roddick has reached 2 semis and a quarter - I expect him to go at least one step further this time.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) Forgot to add.....getting 6.50 for the place part of the bet is very good. The in part is obviously going to be layable even after a few rounds so I really like this:nana

[davidmphill]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) Seedings came out today: Men's seedings: 1. Roger Federer (Swi) 2. Andy Roddick (US) 3. Lleyton Hewitt (Aus) 4. David Nalbandian (Arg) 5. Nikolay Davydenko (Rus) 6. Guillermo Coria (Arg) 7. Ivan Ljubicic (Cro) 8. Gaston Gaudio (Arg) 9. Fernando Gonzalez (Chi) 10. Thomas Johansson (Swe) 11. David Ferrer (Sp) 12. Dominik Hrbaty (Svk) 13. Robby Ginepri (US) 14. Richard Gasquet (Fr) 15. Juan Carlos Ferrero (Sp) 16. Tommy Robredo (Sp) 17. Radek Stepanek (Cze) 18. Mario Ancic (Cro) 19. Tomas Berdych (Cze) 20. James Blake (US) 21. Nicolas Kiefer (Ger) 22. Gael Monfils (Fra) 23. Igor Andreev (Rus) 24. Olivier Rochus (Bel) 25. Sebastien Grosjean (Fra) 26. Jarkko Nieminen (Fin) 27. Taylor Dent (US) 28. Fernando Verdasco (Sp) 29. Filippo Volandri (It) 30. Max Mirnyi (Bls) 31. Feliciano Lopez (Sp) 32. Carlos Moya (Spain).

[davidmphill]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) Women's seedings: 1. Lindsay Davenport (US) 2. Kim Clijsters (Bel) 3. Amelie Mauresmo (Fra) 4. Maria Sharapova (Rus) 5. Mary Pierce (Fra) 6. Nadia Petrova (Rus) 7. Patty Schnyder (Swi) 8. Justine Henin-Hardenne (Bel) 9. Elena Dementieva (Rus) 10. Venus Williams (US) 11. Nathalie Dechy (Fra) 12. Anastasia Myskina (Fra) 13. Serena Williams (US) 14. Svetlana Kuznetsova (Rus) 15. Francesca Schiavone (It) 16. Nicole Vaidisova (Cze) 17. Daniela Hantuchova (Svk) 18. Elena Likhovtseva (Rus) 19. Dinara Safina (Rus) 20. Flavia Pennetta (It) 21. Ana Ivanovic (SeM) 22. Anna-Lena Groenefeld (Ger) 23. Jelena Jankovic (SeM) 24. Tatiana Golovin (Fra) 25. Maria Kirilenko (Rus) 26. Ai Sugiyama (Jpn) 27. Marion Bartoli (Fra) 28. Anabel Medina Garrigues (Sp) 29. Klara Koukalova (Cze) 30. Vera Zvonareva (Rus) 31. Gisela Dulko (Arg) 32. Sania Mirza (Ind).

[kt26]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) www.tennisinsight.com is updated for the final round of quals + the main draw...Lucky Hewitt drew the same half as Fedex again! not that he will make it that far!? (i'd certainly want a few pounds on Andy Murray if this match eventuates in R2) I'm punting on a Federer vs Nalbandian Final altho wouldn't go against Roddick either. I also think Ljubeman may disapoint the punters again.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) Very nice draw for Roddick. Ljubicic is in his quarter and Nalbandian is in his half but I can't see those causing too many problems if they get far enough to face A-Rod;). Henins isn't so great with a lot of action in the top half, but I still fancy her chances.

[p0intblanc]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) Hi, Has anyone considered Sharapova for the women's title? I mean I've seen her play and she's pretty good as well. And at the odds around 12.00 for her.. I'd say its a pretty good punt. So what da ya say?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

Hi, Has anyone considered Sharapova for the women's title? I mean I've seen her play and she's pretty good as well. And at the odds around 12.00 for her.. I'd say its a pretty good punt. So what da ya say?

She's been suffering from an "injured pectoral muscle" since last summer. That was badly diagnosed and now they have found out it is a fractured rib. In the last interview I read she said it hurts but she is still going to play. She's also in a toughish part of the draw - 4th round against Serena if she's playing well or Hantuchova, possible quarter with Dementieva or Petrova, semi against whoever comes through Davenport/Kuznetsova/Venus/Henin (hopefully Henin). Also, she was really struggling for form towards the end of the year, and I don't expect her to bring much confidence into this. But of course those are the reasons she is 12.00 and not about 5.00 she could well have been otherwise. All in all I think she'll make the semis - so could be a good price but I don't think she'll win.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) Where are you getting 12.00? I can only see 8.00 and 9.00. Oh, and :welcome to PL:ok

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) Womens Outright: PIERCE @ 19.00 E/W (1/2, 1,2) Stan James 1pt E/W Not much attention on Pierce here in the build up and that could help her. Nice part of the draw, with decent players like Zvonereva, Ivanovic and Schiavone but I think Pierce would be fine players any of those. Also Hingis, but I'm not sure she would be able to get that far. Possible quarter with Clijsters which is the obvious problem, but Clijsters will have to get through 4 matches on her dodgy hip/groin and still be 100% to take on Pierce (and of course I don't think she'll be doing the splits very often which is a shame:tongue2). Possible semi would be against Mauresmo but I would hav to fancy Pierce down under especially as Mauresmo is best priced 11.00. Pierce ended last year in fabulous form and although she is coming into this without any matches, that could even help her later on being rested and she loves the tournament and I expect her to go a long way.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006) Mens Outright ANCIC @ 151.00 Canbet 2pts This is purely a price to do some trading with later in the tournament as it is far too big. Ancic is in strong form and in the final in Auckland. He is also in a lovely part of the draw. 1st round he faces Calleri. 2nd round is the winner of Hernych/Vicente which should be Hernych and should be fine. 3rd round will probably be Ferrer and on hard courts Ancic should be able to blow him away. 4th round would probably be against Moya or Gaudio - well Moya is injured and not likely to be 100% and Gaudio is awful on this surface so I don't think that will be too much of a problem. Then the quarters it gets hard - he would face whoever can come through Robredo/Blake/Henman/Nieminen/Nalbandian. I wouldn't like to call it but the 2 most likely are Blake and Nalbandian and they are odds 45.00 and 18.00 respectively. Not you never know and this would be the point to start trading out of the position when Ancic would be much less than 151.00!! Not going to put this on Sports-Punter as there isn't any way of trading out or even backing against him as the stakes are very limiting. Also this could be arbed as he can be layed at 80.00 or 85.00 if you like at Betfair:ok

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

Very nice draw for Roddick. Ljubicic is in his quarter and Nalbandian is in his half but I can't see those causing too many problems if they get far enough to face A-Rod;). Henins isn't so great with a lot of action in the top half, but I still fancy her chances.

Ljubicic to make the quarters in a Grand Slam? I'd happily lay you that if you're interested in that market... :rollin Truth be told, I'd rather put my money on Henman to make the quarters! In all honesty, I don't think Roddick for the outright would give you a better return than Roddick to win the tourny w/o Federer(I haven't seen any markets yet, but it used to trade in the 3's for the other Slams). Reason for that being assuming you get a Roddick-Federer final, I don't think you'll actually be able to lay Roddick off at anything less than 6.00 in the final itself in the exchanges - and that's speaking from experience.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

In all honesty, I don't think Roddick for the outright would give you a better return than Roddick to win the tourny w/o Federer(I haven't seen any markets yet, but it used to trade in the 3's for the other Slams). Reason for that being assuming you get a Roddick-Federer final, I don't think you'll actually be able to lay Roddick off at anything less than 6.00 in the final itself in the exchanges - and that's speaking from experience.

Aye, but I'm getting 6.50 for the place part of the bet. So if you're getting 3.00 for A-Rod W/O Federer, and what would you say odds for Fed to reach the final? He's 1.50 to win the tournament now so let's just take that. So 3.00*1.5 = 4.50 which is why I like the outright price on Roddick. And of course there would still be a bit of profit made by laying Roddick in the final. No way I'm backing Ljubicic to make the quarters:lol. Can't believe some places are offering 17.00 for Ljubicic to win:lol :lol

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

Aye, but I'm getting 6.50 for the place part of the bet. So if you're getting 3.00 for A-Rod W/O Federer, and what would you say odds for Fed to reach the final? He's 1.50 to win the tournament now so let's just take that. So 3.00*1.5 = 4.50 which is why I like the outright price on Roddick. And of course there would still be a bit of profit made by laying Roddick in the final.

Actually Fed is 1.40 a few places now so to try to be accurate we should be using something like 1.25:eek not 1.50

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Australian Open (16th Jan 2006 - 29th Jan 2006)

Actually Fed is 1.40 a few places now so to try to be accurate we should be using something like 1.25:eek not 1.50

Taking prices from last year's Wimbledon final and a couple of other Masters events final which threw up a Roddick-Federer showdown, you won't get anything more than 1.20 for Federer in the final - a conservative estimate would yield something like 5.50-6.00(absolute lowest) for Roddick at the exchanges. Definitely the value in e/w, but if you went solely for Roddick on the outright(and many places throw up odds solely for the outright and not e/w), then there's just no way you can be better off trying to lay him back for the final, as opposed to just backing him to win w/o Federer. Feel free to PM me for a quote of the price on my Ljubicic offer if you're interested... :rollin :rollin