Welsh National

[Aykay1]

Two against the field here for me. Firstly a few historic pointers..... Chepstow is a tough undulating course and over a trip of this distance, common sense says that horses with lower weights will be more successful. This is backed up by the last 10 winners which show that only Master Oats carried more than 11 stone to victory - and that year, the race was at Newbury - an altogether easier course. We could at a push, narrow this stat down even more by saying that only Earth Summit and Bindaree have carried more than 10 stone 5lb's to victory in the last 10 yearsd. These were big strong horses with endless amounts of stamina, who of course have both won the English Grand National. Unless there is anything in todays race to match their profile, i will go with a horse carrying 10 stone 5lb's or less. On the racecard, this leaves us with L'Aventure downwards. L'Aventure will finish and will be thereabouts as usual. Recent runs i think show that he could do with dropping down the handicap a few pounds before he wins. He always seems to hover around the placings without winning. Ignoring Philson Runs last 2 runs, he would be in with a shout but he is a gamble on current form. Present Bleu hasnt run for 262 days - none of the last 10 winners have been off the track for mor than 37 days. Fitness in a race as testing as this is essential. Indalo takes a big rise in class and is discounted. Wain Mountain hasnt won outside Novice company. In his favour he has been crying out for the trip and could be open to improvement. World Wide Web is too inconsistent for my liking and doesnt look particularly well treated on the handicaps. One im taking a gamble on is NATIVE EMPEROR. 1. He will get the trip having won over 4 miles at the Cheltenham festival. 2. Ground no Problem 3. He has the right racing weight of 10 stone 4. He is VERY well handicapped compared to some of his old form 5. He has shown signs of a return to his old form in his last 2 runs, after a very bleak time last season. Jonjo Oneills whole stable had an unspectacular time of it last season though. Of the others, i will have a saver on McKelvey, who could potentially be a high class horse in the guise of Bindaree and Earth Summit. Novices do not traditionally win this race but of the 6 who have tried in the last ten years, 2 have been placed, so are capable of going close. McKelvey could be anything and is worthy of respect. NATIVE EMPEROR each way @ 20/1 blue square MCKELVEY each way @ 9/1 bet365

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Welsh National World Wide Web. This horse has been lais out for this race and has very little weight.. 13/2 Remember where you heared it first lol Football-Tipper :)