Long term tennis

[Mr Intensity]

Some prices from VC. Not sure anywhere else has any prices up:unsure .

2006 ATP Champions Race - To end year in top 8
Selections	Odds
Roger Federer		1.05
Rafael Nadal		1.12
Andy Roddick		1.33
David Nalbandian		1.50
Lleyton Hewitt		1.55
Richard Gasquet		2.65
Marat Safin		2.90
Guillermo Coria		2.90
Andre Agassi		3.00
Ivan Ljubicic		3.20
James Blake		3.20
Nikolay Davydenko		3.25
Robby Ginepri		4.50
Tomas Berdych		4.50
David Ferrer		5.00
Juan Carlos Ferrero		6.00
Gaston Gaudio		7.50
Joachim Johansson		7.50
Andrew Murray		9.00
Fernando Gonzalez		9.00
Gael Monfils		9.00
Novak Djokovic		10.00
Mario Ancic		11.00
Tommy Haas		11.00
Mariano Puerta		13.00
Ivo Karlovic		13.00
Sebastien Grosjean		13.00
Tim Henman		13.00
Thomas Johansson		13.00
Tommy Robredo		13.00
Igor Andreev		15.00
Nicolas Kiefer		15.00
Mikhail Youzhny		21.00
Dominik Hrbaty		21.00
Radek Stepanek		21.00
Robin Soderling		26.00
Fernando Verdasco		26.00
Stanislas Wawrinka		34.00
Feliciano Lopez		34.00
Xavier Malisse		34.00
Greg Rusedski		34.00
Max Mirnyi		34.00
Florian Mayer		34.00

2006 ATP Champions Race matchups
Start Time (GMT)		Selection	Odds		Selection	Odds
10:00		Andrew Murray		2.10	Tomas Berdych		1.65
10:00		Andy Roddick		1.55	David Nalbandian		2.25
10:00		Guillermo Coria		1.55	David Ferrer		2.25
10:00		Ivan Ljubicic		2.00	Richard Gasquet		1.73
10:00		James Blake		1.73	Robby Ginepri		2.00
10:00		Novak Djokovic		2.00	Gael Monfils		1.73
10:00		Roger Federer		1.35	Rafael Nadal		3.00

Fancied a bit of action in these types of market for the forthcoming year. Initially like the look of Berdych to finish in the top 8 at 4.50. I fancy a few of the guys who filled or were close to filling the spots to struggle next year. Namely guys like Coria, Agassi, Gaudio, Safin I wouldn't be surprised if none of those were in the top 8. Also Hewitts got a kid now, not sure how he'll react. Can't expect Davydenko or Ljubicic to have years as good as 2005. Berdych is the future, he has the complete all round game and had a major confidence boost winning a Masters event at the end of this year. **** it, I love that price. Also like Berdych to beat Murray at 1.65, expect Murray to improve and be around 20 but not as high as Berdych. Will look into some more in some more detail in the next few days. Really like: Berdych to finish top 8 at 4.50 Berdych to beat Murray at 1.65 Thinking about:unsure : Monfils to beat Djokovic at 1.73 Basically think Monfils is one year ahead in his development. Djokovic has the better all round game but is still missing as edge. In other terms I can see Monfils winning tournaments but I can't see that yet from Djokovic. Gasquet to finish top 8 at 2.65 Gasquet to beat Ljubicic at 1.73 Gasquet has everything and should be one looking for a top 8 place. Fancy Ljubicic to have an 'iffy' year after the marathon this year. Any thoughts?

[edtkh]

Re: Long term tennis If the market refunded losers who miss out a substantial part of the season through injury, then Federer is obviously one to put your mortgage on(even at 1.05)! :lol Only thing that holds me back from dabbling in such markets is the issue surrounding motivation and injuries. On a more serious note, I still see Coria being in the top 8 - putting it bluntly, the ATP season still disproportionately favours claycourt specialists as there're tonnes of them who can play an entire season on clay and finish pretty well in the race(think Puerta, Coria and Gaudio). That said, Gasquet, Safin and Ljubicic are clearly players I wouldn't fancy in the top 8 - and if this market was available at the exchanges and at those odds, I'd gladly lay all 3. There's too much of a knee-jerk reaction to Gasquet's rise to prominence - not every 18-20 yr-old who has a good run is a bloody Rafael Nadal, mind! While I don't see too much weakness in Gasquet's game, I still don't see him chalking up the sort of run in sufficient major tournaments to earn him the points he needs for a top 8 finish. His time will come, but I just don't see 2006 as being his year just yet. Safin is so hopelessly inconsistent and erratic I sometimes figure working out his mind must be as big a challenge as any that has confronted mankind in making the greatest scientific breakthroughs. Next to Federer, Safin, for me, is the most technically gifted player on the circuit. Sadly, he's also one of those with the worse attitude and mentality(even accomodating his better temper these days since he hired Lundgren as coach). As he famously self-admits, he'd well be doing something else for a living if he had to put his body through the arduous process of withstanding hours and hours of training on a daily basis - with that kind of an attitude, it's hardly a surprise how well a season he has depends an awful lot on his Grand Slam performances. Quite simply put, he does well when he gets a good run at a Grand Slam(by that, I mean at least a Final appearance as he did for the last 3 years at the Aussie Open) and I don't see him doing just that next year - he doesn't look to be in shape in time for the Aussie Open next year and I certainly don't see him going too far in the other 3 Slams. Lastly, I think Ljubicic has got to be the most grossly over-rated player on the tour. The fact he barely scraped into the top 8 this year in time for Shanghai doesn't inspire anything in me as tonnes of bandwagon-jumpers who reckon he's the greatest thing since sliced bread(or so the reaction seems). When you consider how many of the serious contenders missed out for large chunks of action towards the end of season(Hewitt, Agassi, Nadal, Roddick and Safin), coupled with Ljubicic's fine run(which is hardly something you can bank on to be repeated given how inconsistent he is), he's clearly not someone you'd want to put your money on to finish in the top 8 over the course of a year. On a sidenote, one player I really fancy and would see some value in is Grosjean. Grosjean, for me, is still a worthy top 10 player and if he gets a run going and stays clear of injury, there clearly isn't much to suggest why he can't challenge the big boys as he'd done for the last couple of years(take aside Federer(all surfaces), Nadal(on clay), Roddick(all surfaces bar clay), Hewitt(all surfaces bar clay) and I don't see a player whom I'd confidently say will have the beating of Grosjean at all). Hope that provides some insight to anyone keen on this market then... ;)