NFL Wk. 7.

[TazaD]

Righto...On the ball again... 18-15-1 (+3.68) Buffalo @ Oakland under 40.5 (1.93) Have been happy to ride the Oakland under train so far, yet somehow the perception of their high flying, all powerful offense remains! It's now been 10 games since they've topped 20 (@ 15.5), and I can't see how they do against the second best pass D in the NFL (allow just 5.30 y/pass) The Bills' offense has picked up with Holcomb on board, but they have on scored 3 and 7 in their 2 road games this season. Pittsburgh @ Cinci under 43 (1.95) I think the total is a bit high here, based on the Bengals' offensive numbers, but the 2 teams are a combined 3-7-1 under this number. Cinci have surprisingly good pass D numbers (allow 5.72 y/pass), but they are allowing 4.9 y/run, so Pittsburgh should be content to pound away on the ground. As it is, over 60% of their plays are rushs, so there should be some long, sustained, time consuming drives...esp. with Big Ben likely not 100%. The last 3 meetings @ Cinci have gone comfortably under this number, and I can't see any reason why'd there's be fireworks in this one. Cleveland -2.5 (1.94) League: 15-3-3 (18-3 this no...Av. win 7.6) home fav of 3 or less off a 10+ SU loss as away <7 dog, if the opp is off a home loss. [Cleve] 7-1-2 (9-1 this no...Av. win 6.1) if the total is <40. I think this tells us what we already know...Detroit is rubbish! They just have nothing going for them at all offensively. They run for 3.3 y/carry and throw at 5.01 y/pass @ 52.3%. Their only 2 TD's on Sunday were INT returns, and they've benefited from 8 TO's in the last 2 weeks. If fact, in the last 4 weeks they have been outgained by a total of 458 yards!!...By such heavy weights as Chicago, Tampa and Baltimore!! I realise that Cleveland aren't exactly SB favs themselves, but if they can limit TO's they really should be able to win this one at home. Surely! San Diego +4 (1.96) League: 7-21 (Av. LOSS 1.1) home fav of 7 or less off a BYE, if opp last won ats as fav. [Phil] 1-12 (0-13 this no...Av. LOSS 3.8) if opp is off a 10+ ats win as fav. Stat-wise there is nothing in this game...actually, SD have the advantage, as they rush for 4.8 y/rush, and Philli only 3.6...when they bother to at all that is! I've gotta say that I haven't been all that impressed with Philli so far. A big win over the worst team in football, scraped home over a pretty poor Oakland, a 'lucky' win over KC who self-destructed and thumped by Dallas....You'd have to say that SD are the best team that they will have faced so far, so things don't look good. SD should be able to run the ball well all game, control the tempo (like they have done @ NE and Oakland), and forced Philli to be even more one-dimentional than they are already! (If that's possible). No running game and McNabb clearly not 100%...looks like a tough ask to me. They might sneak over the line, but I like getting the 4 with the better side here. Washington -12 (1.91) Not much to this one really, is there? SF have clearly given up on the season by releasing Rattay. If poor old (young!) Alex Smith went 9/23 for 74 yards and 4 INT's at home v. Indi, it's frightning to think how he'll go @ Washington!!! Although on the surface it appears that Washington don't score enough to cover large spreads, SF are allowing 8.18 y/pass, which is the worst by a fair way...and although they only scored 21 in KC, they fumbled twice in the red-zone (and another time), so they could have easily scored more... ...Not that they will need to! SF have not scored an offensive TD on the road yet this season, and I can't for the life of me see how Smith can do any better. I think I'd take Washington -22 if I had to.

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL Wk. 7. GIMME MY PIE! I WANT MY PIE! :rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin TazaD, you are the king. I salute you. :notworthy Indy were lucky, very very lucky. Had Bulger not got injured it could have got really nasty. Indy struggled against Jackson on the ground AND Holt in the air until after half-time. Even though Indy covered, the Colts must surely know that they were lucky. I got slaughtered last week, except for that game. I'll put my picks up later, so you'll have time to lay them Taz.;):rollin