NH & A/W season

[Runragged]

Howdy folks, Some of you may know me on here, some of you don't, but soon will. I have been posting my bets on a variety of message boards over the years, ever since I was at uni and a few years before as well. Through this time I have learnt a hell of a lot; Off other posters, through making my own mistakes, and putting them there for everyone to read and question. It is only by making mistakes can you learn properly however, and have now got something decent going at long last that is making a steady profit, with the odd error of judgement still thrown in for good measure. Through this time, I have changed my method of betting greatly. I originally started off as a reader of handicaps. Concentrating on those Class D and above, over 7f to 1m 4f for 4yo's and over. Arguably one of the hardest catagories there is. Due to time constaints and many other things going on in life, I had to partly give up this aspect, though do still enjoy analysing some of the big handicaps that fit into this catagory. Now I have a job where I can watch racing all day, and have adapted my policy through this 'luxury'. One of the first and still my favourite book on betting I have ever read is Stewart Simpson's 'Always Back Winners'. i picked up a copy at a car boot sale for about 50p, and still have it now, though a bit more worn and well read. His theory is that horses are handicapped based on what they do on track. If a horse can win a race by showing a quick turn of foot, they are very difficult to handicap because if they have a decent pace to the race, they can keep on quickening away from fields. It can take along time for the handicapper to catch up with them. Now I have been able to put this theory into practise and produced some good results. The pinnicle so far has to be Presto Shinko who impressed me way back in August last year in an 8 runner handicap for 3yo's only. It is not often you see a 3yo that can quicken like that did that day, especially not in a small field and generally run at a slowish pace. We didn't see it out much more that year. A 3rd in a 7 runner race to Eisteddfod (A horse that crops up often in PS career) at Windsor when denied a run, before a 4th in a big field taking on its elders, before ending the season finishing down the field in a rough race, and wasn't seen out again that year. So far this season, now it has matured and filled out even more he has gone on to win 5 from just 12 races, with a further 3 times placing. These wins were priced at 4/1, 15/2, 7/2, 7/1 and ending with taking the honours in the Ayr Gold Cup at 16/1, off a mark of 98, having been spotted winning off 77. Certainly one of my best spots and one of the proudest moment in my betting history. There was of course a few other horses I have followed this season, some with success and others without, and plenty of hard luck stories like everyone else. The good thing though is that this works for the A/W season also, and I have a good list of horses from the last a/w season that I believe are still well handicapped to win, and seem to have been waited with for a campaign on the dirt. Sadly though, this doesn't quite work over the jumps. Not very often at least. Horses just don't stay together nor quicken to suggest they are well handicapped ahead of the other contenders. However, i have adapted this to some success for the National Hunt season. If you look for horses that win easily in handicaps, where the form is solid (ie a few of the other horses have run to form) there can be value had, though often at shorter prices than you find on the flat. When they run with a penalty, and so not reassessed it is even better. By sticking to these types of selections, in handicaps, I believe you can make a profit. Though I do find it a bit harder to know when to stop backing them, and some just can not repeat the form. It is digging these horses out that is the hard part. Anyway, enough of the talk. You should all know enough about me and my methods, without giving too much away. Time to get on with some bets. I will keep everything to this thread, both NH and A/W. Bank will be £1000, and shall see where we get to. NH bets will be staked to a 10% bank, A/W generally to a 5%. When the bank doubles, so the stake will double. Lets hit the road:

[Tulenos]

Re: NH & A/W season Warm to PL, Runragged. Been following your posts on EBA with interest and I'm sure you will prove the right asset to our ATR forum as well. There are also other forums - like footy or other sports - if you are nursing some interest in other areas as well. Now, all the best for yet another profitable season, mate;)