Can ELO ratings be used as a source of potential bets?

[ozorgnax]

So basically what it says in the title of the post. There were some good results this weekend like the wins of Crystal Palace, Accrington and Brighton which were all supported by strong ELO ratings but even more were the losses like Reading, Leyton Orient, Huddersfield, Holstein Kiel and Parma. I'd like to start this thread and post some thoughts for future games based solely on ratings and standings and hopefully get a discussion going on. Maybe some people have more info about injuries, motivation or any other factor that can lead to separate the wheat from the chaff so to speak :-)

Starting tomorrow I see nothing interesting but on Tuesday we have the League One match between Bolton and Charlton. Ratings indicate Charlton as favourites but odds say otherwise. Of course that doesn't mean anything by itself but for me it's an indication for further analysis. At a first glance I don't see much to separate these two in terms of standings (Bolton 4 points more but also with one match more than their rivals). Charlton's form is a bit better in the last five (3-1-1 vs 2-1-2 for Bolton). Bolton home record this season is 6-3-4 (21-19 goals) while Charlton away record is 4-2-6 (15-15 goals). Any more insight for this? Straight away win is 3.258 right now at the exchanges and the safer Draw-no-Bet is 2.402 which does seem tempting

Also a question for @Fader: Do the ratings take into account ALL matches played by a team? Or just league matches?

[Fader]

  On 1/19/2025 at 3:58 PM, ozorgnax said:

So basically what it says in the title of the post. There were some good results this weekend like the wins of Crystal Palace, Accrington and Brighton which were all supported by strong ELO ratings but even more were the losses like Reading, Leyton Orient, Huddersfield, Holstein Kiel and Parma. I'd like to start this thread and post some thoughts for future games based solely on ratings and standings and hopefully get a discussion going on. Maybe some people have more info about injuries, motivation or any other factor that can lead to separate the wheat from the chaff so to speak 🙂

Starting tomorrow I see nothing interesting but on Tuesday we have the League One match between Bolton and Charlton. Ratings indicate Charlton as favourites but odds say otherwise. Of course that doesn't mean anything by itself but for me it's an indication for further analysis. At a first glance I don't see much to separate these two in terms of standings (Bolton 4 points more but also with one match more than their rivals). Charlton's form is a bit better in the last five (3-1-1 vs 2-1-2 for Bolton). Bolton home record this season is 6-3-4 (21-19 goals) while Charlton away record is 4-2-6 (15-15 goals). Any more insight for this? Straight away win is 3.258 right now at the exchanges and the safer Draw-no-Bet is 2.402 which does seem tempting

Also a question for @Fader: Do the ratings take into account ALL matches played by a team? Or just league matches?

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Ok, I've checked and it is in fact ONLY the league matches.