Tennis strategies

[bymatrix]

hi guys

Apologies if a similar thread has already been instigated but couldn't find one whilst searching.

I'm always interested in individual strategic approaches in any sport and as i'm an avid tennis follower / viewer / punter thought i'd seek out a few new ones as i'm sure we all have many different approaches in making a few quid.

Here's mine to start..........

I never back pre-match but in trading in-play my max odds lay is 1.29 and i green up when the market flip flops.

In addition i have constructed a tennis list of WTA and ATP players who fit the wayward bill combining meltdowns , purple patches , mini slumps , lack of concentration , body language and a few other elements that have been identified across many previous matches , so basically players who seem to have the inability to see a match through without displaying one of those identified.

Further addition regarding liability is to use a 70/20/10 method meaning i take the figure i'm willing to lose on the list player so for simplicity let's say £100 , therefore my first lay in the 1.29 max odds ballpark would be to lose £70 , then if the player shortened the next £20 loss would be a lay between say 1.10-1.19 then lastly if they went sub 1.1 the final £10 loss would be at the basement ballpark , that way you can maximize how low the odds go , keep control of you're max risk of £100 and also have the capacity to green up before the flip flop if/when the match starts leveling up as anticipated.

If two list players are facing each other i normally increase the risk value by 50%.

Big advantage with tennis as in cricket is that the liquidity is almost always available with no gaps in the numbers on the exchange so virtually guaranteed to get your amount matched.

 

That's about it apart from a few other tweaks here and there and i've been using this strategy for around 15yrs with the only tweaks being replacing one list player with another due to retirement , sometimes a coach change , i've never used this as a blanket to include every player as the likes of Novak , Rafa and several others could easily go 100 matches without giving you a sniff of a trade so the players have to be chosen carefully and based on substance with some archive of producing spiky graphs.

 

Hope we can exchange a few views before the Australian Open and interested whether you guys are basically punters or traders and how successful or otherwise the different approaches have performed for you.

 

Best of luck all      

 

[Torque]

You've been betting on tennis for 15 years @bymatrix where've you been! I've been at it for about as long as you and you definitely start to recognise patterns. Similarly to you, I've got a 'black book' about what to look out for in certain players and you're right to say that individual characteristics have a lot to do with results and also the performances that lead to those results and how they can present trading opportunities.

Personally though I've never been much of a trader and that's for a number of reasons, but my 'black book' serves me pretty well when it comes to straight match and tournament betting. That said, if I were to get into trading one starting point for me would be laying certain players when they've got into a set and a break lead as the upside it high on the basis that they're on the point of winning the match. So many players in that position don't go on to win though or if they do they get reeled in first before going ahead again and that's obviously ideal for trading.