Nobel Prize for Economics (Monday 10th October)

[stereoman]

I truly am a sick, sick man with a gambling agenda that envelops this kind of broad gubbins. Mind you, I'm also pissed off that I didn't put any money on Mohamed ElBaradei and the International Atomic Energy Agency winning Friday's Nobel Peace Prize. :@ ....they were available at 6/1 (bet down to 3/1) with Centrebet and Ladbrokes but were bet on as the most likeliest winners like they were the only winners (both firms apparently took a small hit but did the wise thing and got rid of the market on Thursday when they smelled a rat. As there's only five people who know ~ the judges ~ there might have been a delay as to when the result was announced meaning shrewd betting or an extremely 'well-informed' gamble!). I'm gonna have a go and try to predict who'll win the Economics Prize with the help of whatever's on the web. Ladbrokes' market have these guys as the front-runners: Paul Romer 3/1 Peter A Diamond 5/1 Paul Krugman 6/1 Elhanan Helpman 7/1 Paul Milgrom 8/1 Edmund S Phelps 9/1 Ernst Fehr 9/1 Edward P Lazear 12/1 Lars E O Svensson 14/1 Thomas J Sargent 16/1 ....several weblogs who maybe more clued up on these things don't have most of these names up in their line-up as to who'll win: http://216.109.124.98/search/cache?p=nobel+economics+2005&prssweb=Search&ei=UTF-8&fl=0&meta=vc%3D&u=www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2004/09/who_will_win_th.html&w=nobel+economics+2005&d=bauuFGFULgDw&icp=1&.intl=uk http://greeneconomics.blogspot.com/2005/09/who-will-win-2005-nobel-prize-in.html http://voluntaryxchange.typepad.com/voluntaryxchange/2005/10/who_will_win_th.html http://www.nobelpreisboerse.de/stocks.aspx?stc=6 (foreign betting exchange odds!). It's a completely niche market but I love having a go at wacko markets like these! :loon I'm gonna have the balls to fire off an e-mail and get Laddies to quote me some prices on some 'outsiders'. The likely winners are likely gonna be at least two people than just one person being singled out so I'm wondering if the potential pay-off will be worth the hassle of researching this (1/2 odds on 2 people winning, 1/3 odds if 3 people are named as winners etc; ). :lol

[edtkh]

Re: Nobel Prize for Economics (Monday 10th October) I'd find the prospect of wagering on the bet for the Nobel Prize in Literature more enticing to be honest. For starters, on only 2 occasions have there been more than 1 winner in the same year in the 104 years(including the WWII period when no award was given out) they've been dishing out this award and the last time that happened was in 1974. I also feel the fact that on both occasions only 2 winners were declared when more than 1 winner was declared in the same year will go a long way towards helping any e/w bets as that is unlike what you have for Economics, Physics or Chemistry(where you could have up to 3 winners in a year). Ladbrokes have Andonis priced at 2.50 now(was 3.00 a couple of days ago) which I think could still be worth a very good flutter. Andonis has been tipped for the prize in both 2003 and 2004, but rumours had been circulating it wasn't an opportune moment to confer the award on him at a time when Bush's war on terror had effectively polarised the Arab world and Western society in general. Another point worth taking note which should augur well for Andonis is the fact there're a pretty widespread consensus in the academic circles that this year's award should go to a poet as it has been almost a decade since the last poet won the award(Wislawa Szymborska in 1996). Price may be short, but I just can't help feel a sense of Deja vu surrounding this just as had been when Beijing won the bid to host the 2008 Olympic Games after their failed 2000 bid. ;)