RACING CHAT MONDAY 22ND JULY 2024

[Antonio Margarettii]

13 minutes ago, Antonio Margarettii said:

5.50 windsor - castro aurum 10/1 

Ran a very good race as i thought 

[Antonio Margarettii]

6.10 ballinrobe - nika pika 18/1

[azzybear]

the Hun 6.20 ew

[Antonio Margarettii]

3 minutes ago, azzybear said:

the Hun 6.20 ew

Have a little ew on celtic john 66/1

[Zilzalian]

5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	Sixties Chic	7	114.09	69.00
2	Bona Fortuna	4.5	111.45	36.04
3	Tremblant	15	111.12	116.68
4	Supreme King	9.5	108.97	59.62
5	Watchya	15	107.37	77.36
6	Capote's Dream	9.5	105.90	39.18
7	Nogo's Dream	9	103.85	24.21
8	Lahina Bay	15	103.60	37.75
9	Kit Gabriel	23	102.40	38.53
10	Betties Bay	17	100.92	10.92
11	Grenham Bay	23	96.51
12	Toussarok	81	92.72
13	Sky Warrior	17	83.13
14	Glamorous Express	41	83.02
15	Ashwiyaa	34	74.96

7:20 Windsor, Tremblant e/w at 16.3 (had to settle for 4 places, would've taken 14/1 to 5).

At least the template seems to be working!

Tremblant is your typical "over the cliff" horse, i have top rated it every time it has run since it arrived from The Andre Fabre stable which is 10 runs ago it came close just once. That being said it will win a race sooner or later i have no doubt. One could argue that at 14/1 it is a reasonable ew bet in a race of this nature and that would be valid but caution must be advised.

[Villa Chris]

6 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

7.20 Windsor 

Sixties Chic 31 11/2 ( my odds 8/1)

Nogos Dream 26 15/2 ( my odds 10/1)

Watchya 25 14/1 ( my odds 10/1) 

Sixties Chic clear on ratings but Watchya offers the value bet . 
 

2 points win Watchya 

Nogo came second at 10/1 

[Villa Chris]

4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

7.00 Beverley 

Tropez Power 26 9/2 ( my odds 13/2)

Master Richard 23 5/1 ( my odds 8/1

Cliffcake 23 16/1 ( my odds 8/1) 

2 points win Cliffcake 

Tropez second Master 4th . Both value bets came nowhere today 

-22

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Tremblant is your typical "over the cliff" horse, i have top rated it every time it has run since it arrived from The Andre Fabre stable which is 10 runs ago it came close just once. That being said it will win a race sooner or later i have no doubt. One could argue that at 14/1 it is a reasonable ew bet in a race of this nature and that would be valid but caution must be advised.

I backed it each way at 14/1 for 5 places so I didn't lose.  I watched the race.  It was slow away and was switched around later on and that is why I think it lost.  Interesting the write ups from the Sporting Press. Sporting Life Results say "In rear, pushed along well over 2f out, headway on outer well over 1f out, ran on, no impression final furlong op 11/1" and the RP says:

"Dwelt start, in rear, switched left and headway on outer from 2f out, disputing fourth inside final furlong, kept on (op 11/1)" The first explanation was misleading and the RP more accurate IMO

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

I backed it each way at 14/1 for 5 places so I didn't lose.  I watched the race.  It was slow away and was switched around later on and that is why I think it lost.  Interesting the write ups from the Sporting Press. Sporting Life Results say "In rear, pushed along well over 2f out, headway on outer well over 1f out, ran on, no impression final furlong op 11/1" and the RP says:

"Dwelt start, in rear, switched left and headway on outer from 2f out, disputing fourth inside final furlong, kept on (op 11/1)" The first explanation was misleading and the RP more accurate IMO

Both things can be true, watching a race is all about personal opinions/interpretations that's how you end up with a variance in odds and you get people who like to read these write ups instead of using your own eyes. You said you think the RP is more accurate, nothing wrong with that statement but i look before a race not after it, a 4yo and has only won 1 race and that was over 7.5f on the aw polytrack this was a sprint. How many more clues does anyone need to not back a horse? I noticed the discussion on here and no one mentioned any of those things i just highlighted, it all revolved around the price and places.

[Villa Chris]

@Zilzalian do you do your own odds? 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, Villa Chris said:

@Zilzalian do you do your own odds? 

No. I try to use common sense (try 😂) or experience. loosely - I have my speed figures and basically use them for pattern races, i go with the thinking- will it win? if yes i will back it as long as it is a decent price ie over 5/1, i try not to micro manage my bets. That's not to say occasionally i don't back at shorter prices if i think its a shoe in i will back it no matter what the odds are with the proviso-never back odds on. For all other racing ie h/caps et al i just mess about with lucky 15's based on what i know. I can't understand why punters can't seem to get their heads round the fact that lower grade (below pattern racing) is about as straight as a spiral staircase or in many cases down the lower grade handicaps just bad, old or inconsistent horses. There are many on here that will disagree with me and that's fine each to their own i can only tell you what works for me. And the biggest asset to "successful betting" imho is honesty with yourself, that may sound odd but how many people come up with excuses for why they backed a loser (i have done it myself). instead of analysing how/why they got it wrong, so find a reason and not an excuse so you can learn from it, it makes a big difference. Went off script there because i like to use a paragraph instead of a word 😂😂😂

[yossa6133]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I backed it each way at 14/1 for 5 places so I didn't lose.  I watched the race.  It was slow away and was switched around later on and that is why I think it lost.  Interesting the write ups from the Sporting Press. Sporting Life Results say "In rear, pushed along well over 2f out, headway on outer well over 1f out, ran on, no impression final furlong op 11/1" and the RP says:

"Dwelt start, in rear, switched left and headway on outer from 2f out, disputing fourth inside final furlong, kept on (op 11/1)" The first explanation was misleading and the RP more accurate IMO

All over the track! Based on just that run I'd be interested next time but reading this thread...maybe not 😂

[Zilzalian]

18 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

All over the track! Based on just that run I'd be interested next time but reading this thread...maybe not 😂

7f and a double figure price and your in ew

[LeMale]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

No. I try to use common sense (try 😂) or experience. loosely - I have my speed figures and basically use them for pattern races, i go with the thinking- will it win? if yes i will back it as long as it is a decent price ie over 5/1, i try not to micro manage my bets. That's not to say occasionally i don't back at shorter prices if i think its a shoe in i will back it no matter what the odds are with the proviso-never back odds on. For all other racing ie h/caps et al i just mess about with lucky 15's based on what i know. I can't understand why punters can't seem to get their heads round the fact that lower grade (below pattern racing) is about as straight as a spiral staircase or in many cases down the lower grade handicaps just bad, old or inconsistent horses. There are many on here that will disagree with me and that's fine each to their own i can only tell you what works for me. And the biggest asset to "successful betting" imho is honesty with yourself, that may sound odd but how many people come up with excuses for why they backed a loser (i have done it myself). instead of analysing how/why they got it wrong, so find a reason and not an excuse so you can learn from it, it makes a big difference. Went off script there because i like to use a paragraph instead of a word 😂😂😂

Some very good and valid points and i suppose i should be one of the "many" to disagree with you, but i don't, because what you're saying is right. They are just puzzles to me and i like to try and work them out, but it does take a lot of time and effort and as my results on here have shown over the last 2/3 years (and as you have said many times) "if you don't put the time in, your results will suffer". I'll be lucky to get through 3/4 races nowadays and have to pick something out of those. The one thing i have enjoyed recently is when all of you guys do your ratings with all your high-tech gizmos and post them on here and it's a race i have looked through. I will try to just note the one's i've picked, (unless a price is in free-fall) then look to see if they match up with what you guys have posted, just for clarity really, doesn't always work, but nice to know my time wasn't wasted. 

[harry_rag]

On 7/22/2024 at 12:27 PM, harry_rag said:

7:20 Windsor, Tremblant e/w at 16.3 (had to settle for 4 places, would've taken 14/1 to 5).

2nd one in the last couple of days where I've been done by not having the extra place onside though, in this case, I think I didn't have the option rather than swerving based on price. A man's got to know his limitations and I'm happy to accept that a simple rating system based on 3 freely available RP numbers is never going to be the holy grail especially when I'm not applying any subjective overview of the sort that @Zilzalian uses to sort the wheat from the you know what. But it's a definitely a step up in terms of how I'd have selected bets previously (unless I was following any of you lot) and it's allowing me to fine tune the spreadsheet.

Speaking of which, how about we take it for a run with a combined effort on one of the races at Ascot on Saturday? (Don't worry, I won't add my ratings into the mix!). @richard-westwood @MCLARKE @Zilzalian

[richard-westwood]

10 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

2nd one in the last couple of days where I've been done by not having the extra place onside though, in this case, I think I didn't have the option rather than swerving based on price. A man's got to know his limitations and I'm happy to accept that a simple rating system based on 3 freely available RP numbers is never going to be the holy grail especially when I'm not applying any subjective overview of the sort that @Zilzalian uses to sort the wheat from the you know what. But it's a definitely a step up in terms of how I'd have selected bets previously (unless I was following any of you lot) and it's allowing me to fine tune the spreadsheet.

Speaking of which, how about we take it for a run with a combined effort on one of the races at Ascot on Saturday? (Don't worry, I won't add my ratings into the mix!). @richard-westwood @MCLARKE @Zilzalian

Sounds good to me 🙂 

[MCLARKE]

I'm up for it. We also have Glorious Goodwood the week after.

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

2nd one in the last couple of days where I've been done by not having the extra place onside though, in this case, I think I didn't have the option rather than swerving based on price. A man's got to know his limitations and I'm happy to accept that a simple rating system based on 3 freely available RP numbers is never going to be the holy grail especially when I'm not applying any subjective overview of the sort that @Zilzalian uses to sort the wheat from the you know what. But it's a definitely a step up in terms of how I'd have selected bets previously (unless I was following any of you lot) and it's allowing me to fine tune the spreadsheet.

Speaking of which, how about we take it for a run with a combined effort on one of the races at Ascot on Saturday? (Don't worry, I won't add my ratings into the mix!). @richard-westwood @MCLARKE @Zilzalian

Well if people go back to the experiment for the 1000g 2000g derby and oaks it was quite successful  in identifying value and at least giving an idea of a path to profitability as opposed to just guessing or following the noise. As for Saturday it depends on the races we choose I suppose my personal opinion is that it must be a pattern race or a very top tier handicap if the pattern races cut up to nothing as as happened recently. There are 4 pattern races.

315 york   G2

150 ascot  G3

225 ascot  G3

415 ascot listed

Shall we do all 4? maybe give the small stakes players an option of a lucky 15.?

[harry_rag]

5 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Well if people go back to the experiment for the 1000g 2000g derby and oaks it was quite successful  in identifying value and at least giving an idea of a path to profitability as opposed to just guessing or following the noise. As for Saturday it depends on the races we choose I suppose my personal opinion is that it must be a pattern race or a very top tier handicap if the pattern races cut up to nothing as as happened recently. There are 4 pattern races.

315 york   G2

150 ascot  G3

225 ascot  G3

415 ascot listed

Shall we do all 4? maybe give the small stakes players an option of a lucky 15.?

I was going to let you wise monkeys choose the race, I’m game for the quartet if you’re all of a mind to do it, if not agree the race(s) between you and I’ll do the crunching. Do we want to do it on Thursday when the 48 hour decs are known? Extra early value v worrying about non runners.