Racing chat -saturday 13th July

[richard-westwood]

Banbury cup 

Carrytheone.  8.9 11/2 lads 

Divine Libra. 8.7 15/2

Gorak   8.6 9/1 

Close little race but carrytheone is probably value for more (around 9.0) after having trouble in running when these all last met .....the 11/2 with lads is way bigger than all the other bookies ....value bet ....the other two are seoarated by a whisker but divine has will Buick on and that could make all the difference 

5pt Ew top 2 ...forecasts all 3 

Edited July 11 by richard-westwood

[The Brigadier]

Ascot 1.45

A bumper afternoon’s racing with ITV showing eleven races from Super Saturday. The first of two from Ascot is the class 2 5F handicap featuring nineteen speedy sorts. Many can be given chances but it’s the Stuart Williams trained Existent who gets my pick. He ran fifth in this race last year and can race here today off of a handicap mark 14lb lower than then. He probably needed his run at Sandown last week when only a half a length runner up to Tees Spirit and with that run hopefully bringing him forward looks the value each way play.

 

EXISTENT 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

York 2.00

The first of four races covered by ITV at York is a sixteen runner 1M class 2 handicap in which the favourite Elnajmm from the in form William Haggas Newmarket looks to have a big chance despite a more than ideal draw of fourteen. He looked a horse way ahead of his mark when winning at Newcastle following a 317 day absence last month and despite a 10lb rise could feasibly still be well handicapped. At a bigger price though and the value each way play with additional places is David O’Meara’s Blue For You who romped home by 3L in this race last year and returns this year a full stone lower in the weights having prepped for this , like last year, by running down the field in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot. Danny Tudhope takes the ride.

 

BLUE FOR YOU 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 2.12

The first of five races covered by the ITV races from the head quarters of British racing is the class 2 three year old 7F handicap fillies handicap. Karl Burke’s lightly raced Zoustar filly Miss Bodacious made quite an impression on her handicap debut here on the July course when winning a 6F race by 2 1/2L last month and despite a hefty 9lb rise can score again with the step up to 7F looking to unlock even more improvement getting weight from all of her rivals. Betfred are paying 4 places so if able take your business to Fred.

 

MISS BODACIOUS 1 point each way @ 9/2 Betfred 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 2.20

Nine runners run in this Group 2 Anne Cowley Memorial Summer Mile Stakes run over the one mile of the round course. Simon & Ed Crisford’s Quddwah has done little wrong in winning all three of his starts, two as a three year old and a listed race on the straight course here in May. The two horses he beat into second and third that day in Docklands and Maljoom went onto fill the same positions in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at the Royal meeting behind top miler Charyn to boost the form and he could be anything. He can keep his unbeaten run going with Ralph Beckett’s Sonny Liston his biggest threat.

 

QUDDWAH 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365

 

York 2.35

Next up is the 5F listed John Smith’s City Walls Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F in which we have nine running. Clarendon House has to carry a 3lb penalty here and the bet may be the Tom Clover trained, Wathnan Racing owned Rogue Lightning. Forget his last run in the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at Ascot as he reared leaving the stalls. He is a speedy gelding who is the second best in here on official ratings (to Starlust) and looks sure to run a big race.

 

ROGUE LIGHTNING 1 point win @ 5/1 Ladbrokes

 

Newmarket 2.50

An intriguing sixteen runner three year old class 2 handicap is up next run over a mile. Four of these ran in the Brittannia Handicap at Royal Ascot last month with Qirat faring the best in sixth place although the best of that quartet may actually be Kevin Ryan’s Volterra who finished eleventh but ‘won’ his side of the draw. I expect him to run well but the pick may turn out to be Andrew Balding’s Celtic Warrior who will appreciate the drying conditions. The soft ground may have been against him on his penultimate run and his latest 1/2L second at Goodwood has been boosted by the three that have subsequently run from the race, the 3rd, 4th and 6th, all winning since. Just 2lb higher than that run he looks decent each way value.

 

CELTIC WARRIOR 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

York 3.10

The feature race of the day at York is the John Smith’s Cup Handicap run over 1M 2 1/2F and has attracted a maximum field of twenty two. Roger Varian’s Botanical looked better than a handicapper when bolting up over course and distance on his re-appearance in May but bombed out on a faster surface in the listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot finishing plum last. As long as there’s sufficient dig in the ground expect a much better run here. Liberty Lane and last year’s third Haunted Dream both have chances on the book but have to contend with wide draws in stalls 23 and 24 respectively. Botancial is in stall six and with P J McDonald on top should run a big race.

 

BOTANICAL 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

Newmarket 3.25

Nine have declared for the Group 2 Superlative Stakes run over 7F for two year olds. The two principals are the Charlie Appleby trained Ancient Truth who’s unbeaten in two victories here, once at the Rowley course and over course and distance last month and the Royal Ascot Coventry Stakes third Columnist trained by Richard Fahey and owned by Wathnan Racing. Slight preference is for the former who will be ridden by William Buick and can give Appleby their fifth victory in the race in the last nine years.

 

ANCIENT TRUTH 1 point win 13/8 BetVictor

 

York 3.45

A field of eight assemble for this Group 3 John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes run over 1M 6F. Theres only 9lb between the field on official ratings with William Haggas’s Klondike the selection. He short headed the re-opposing Salt Bay over course and distance four weeks ago and can confirm that form and complete a course double with Richard Kingscote taking over from Ryan Moore. Andrew Balding’s Alsakib ran well at Ascot and is the one I fear the most.

 

KLONDIKE 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor

 

Newmarket 4.00

A maximum sized field of twenty run in the class 2 bet365 Bunbury Cup run over 7F. As always the race has a very open look about it with many holding decent shouts. Amongst them would be Ryan Moore’s mount Carrytheone and the William Buick ridden Divine Libra. There may be some each way value though in the shape of the David O’Meara trained six year old Darkness. He bounced back to form over course and distance 16 days ago when sprinting clear to win by 3L making it two from two at the July course. A 6lb penalty here won’t make things easy for the gelding but he clearly enjoys the uphill finish here and looks good each way value with additional places in an open handicap.

 

DARKNESS 1 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 4.35

A quality field of twelve run in the Group 1 My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes run over 6F which features four three year olds taking on their elders. It may well be the Classic generation in which we will find the winner with last year’s smart juvenile Vandeek likely to get closer than he did to the favourite Inisherin at Haydock on his re-appearance (he has 4L to make up). The one they all have to beat though is surely the aforementioned Inisherin who hasn’t looked back since dropping in trip having failed to stay when sixth in the 2000 Guineas in winning Group races at Haydock and Ascot (Group 1 Commonwealth Cup) over 6F. As long as he handles the track he should be able to confirm the form with Vandeek and beat his elders. The best of whom may turn out to Kinross who will appreciate getting his toe in.

 

INISHERRIN 1 point win @ 11/4 William Hill.