Help Needed: Horse Racing Stats - Comparing Different Races

[RoyalLuck]

Hello. I am new to the forum so hopefully this is allowed. I am trying to build a way to see what would have happened if a certain horse (based on past performance) had ran in a particular race (like a ghost race)

I have two sets of data from 2 races and want to try and understand if Horse 1 would have beaten, or got beat by horse 2 if it had raced with horse 2 in their race. 

Race Comparison
	Distance Rounded	Distance Actual	Yards	Weight	Ground	Seconds
Horse 1	7f	6f 195yds	1515	9-10	Soft	91.35
Horse 2	8f	7f 173yds	1713	9-12	Good to Firm	97.62

I know I am going to have to make adjustments for weight, ground and distance but not sure how to calculate this without double counting?

Or am I asking for the impossible here? 🙂

Edited June 27 by RoyalLuck

[Zilzalian]

20 minutes ago, RoyalLuck said:

Hello. I am new to the forum so hopefully this is allowed. I am trying to build a way to see what would have happened if a certain horse (based on past performance) had ran in a particular race (like a ghost race)

I have two sets of data from 2 races and want to try and understand if Horse 1 would have beaten, or got beat by horse 2 if it had raced with horse 2 in their race. 

Race Comparison
	Distance Rounded	Distance Actual	Yards	Weight	Ground	Seconds	Time Var	Adjusted Time
Horse 1	7f	6f 195yds	1515	9-10	Soft	91.35	6.55	84.80
Horse 2	8f	7f 173yds	1713	9-12	Good to Firm	97.62	0.52	97.10

 

I know I am going to have to make adjustments for weight, ground and distance but not sure how to calculate this without double counting?

Or am I asking for the impossible here? 🙂

To simplify...From my point of view (speed figures) i would back the fastest horse 99% of the time.