Racing Chat- Saturday 1st June

[The Brigadier]

Epsom 1.25

The opener on Derby day is the 10F class 2 0-100 handicap for three year olds and represents the best bet of the day. Richard Hannon’s Persica has form with the 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech on his penultimate run and wasn’t disgraced when fourth in the London Cup last time, traditionally a race that works out well so he should run well even from a high draw but it’s the Andrew Balding trained Portsmouth that has plenty in his favour. An impressive winner on his handicap debut over course and distance in April under today’s rider Oisin Murphy on good ground he followed that up with a decent 1L runner up to Lavender Hill at Goodwood on much softer ground ten days later.That form looks very good now with the winner going on and finishing fourth in a listed race at the same track and is now rated 20lb higher than when beating the selection. The 3rd and 4th have also won since so a 3lb rise for Portsmouth looks lenient to say the least. Nicely drawn in stall 1 and with Oisin Murphy back on board he looks a good wager. He did race a bit keenly last time so I’m hoping he’ll get some cover and pounce late.

 

PORTSMOUTH 1 1/2 points each way 4/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Epsom 2.00

Nine have declared for the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes run over a distance of 1M 113 yards. The best in at the weights is the John & Thady Gosden trained Running Lion and she looks the one they all have to beat. She has by all accounts been working all over Emily Upjohn at home so a bold run from her stable mate in the Coronation Cup on Friday will be a boost to her chances. David Loughnane’s Sparks Fly is actually rated on par with Running Lion and can run well as long as there’s plenty of dig in the ground as she loves to get her toe in. Soft ground also suits Breege and Astral Beau but this looks one for Clarehaven Stables and Running Lion.

 

RUNNING LION 1 point win @ 7/4 bet365

 

Epsom 2.35

The Group 3 Diomed Stakes is run over a trip of 1M 113 yards and with eight going to post has an open look about it this year. Last year’s one- two Regal Reality and Highland Avenue are both back to renew rivalry with a 3lb penalty for the latter not ideal. Regal Reality appears to need very fast ground as he has been taken out before due to easy ground so he’s overlooked as well. The best in at the weights is the Cole’s Royal Scotsman but he ran a stinker first time out in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury last month and has questions to answer now. Roger Varian’s Embesto was strongly fancied in a similar grade of contest on his seasonal re-appearance at Newmarket back in April but pulled too hard. He sports a first time hood here and as long as the ground is not too deep he looks a value pick under James Doyle.

 

EMBESTO 1 point each way @ 4/1 BetVictor 1/5th 123

 

Epsom 3.10

A maximum field of twenty have declared for this fiendishly difficult Betfred 3YO “Dash” Handicap, run over the fastest 5F in the world. Many can be given chances including James Horton’s hat trick seeking Grandlad and the one-two-three from the 5F handicap at Chester’s May meeting Knicks, Vince L’Amour and Due For Luck. Oisin Murphy could be in for a good day today with the likes of Portsmouth and Running Lion and his mount here Sturlasson looked very speedy when breaking his maiden at Navan last month when starting quickly and making all to win going away by 3L. This is a much stronger heat but he looked fast that day and if anywhere near his debut 2 3/4L second to the now 120 rated Bucanero Fuerte could be well treated off of a handicap mark of just 89. His Irish trainer Kieran Cotter has his string in top form winning with two of his last six runners and in an open sprint he’s worth a small stakes each way bet.

 

STARLUSSON 1 point each way @ 11/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

 

Epsom 3.45

Fifteen got to post for the valuable 5F Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap in which it’s all about speed. The bottom five horses here are out of the handicap by 3lb and more and the race may not be as competitive as it’s looked in previous years. One horse here who does look particularly well treated is last year’s runner up Silky Wilkie. He was an unlucky loser that day getting chinned on the line off of a handicap mark 8lb higher than todays with today’s top weight Clarendon House, in the same ownership, a head back in third but now 19lb worse off. The horse has run credibly this season without winning under 7lb apprentice Sam Feilden and may benefit from the stronger handling of Clifford Lee here today. In an open contest he’s the one worth a small stakes interest.

 

SILKY WILKIE 1 point each way @ 9/2 BetVictor 1/5th 1234

 

Epsom 4.30

The Blue Riband race for three year old colts and the fourth classic of the season is the Betfred Derby run over 1M 4F. As always a fascinating contest where there are many questions to answer. The main one has to be can Aidan O’Brien’s City Of Troy bounce back to form having flopped in the 2000 Guineas now stepped up half a mile? He may well but at his current odds I’ll not be paying to find out. O’Brien also runs the Leopardstown Derby Trial one - two in Los Angeles and Euphonic with the former the preferred of the pair. He does however look all about stamina and maybe more of a St Leger type. Charlie Appleby has had no luck in the run in to the race having lost Arabian Crown to injury but has an able deputy in the shape of Ancient Wisdom who was no match for Economics in the Dante Stakes at York but comes here with obvious claims. Runner up to the aforementioned Arabian Crown in the Sandown Classic Trial was Ralph Beckett’s Macduff and he’s one that is on my shortlist. The one horse who has impressed me most in the trials this spring is the James Fanshawe trained Ambiente Friendly. He stepped forward from a decent re-appearance fourth to spread eagle his field in the Lingfield Derby Trial, coming home some 4 1/2L to the good with the third Meydan winning a listed race at Goodwood since to frank the form. He’ll have no trouble seeing the trip out and may be a bit overpriced. Controversially and sadly his owners have decided to take off Callum Shepherd and replace him with Rab Havlin which makes no sense to me. In an open Derby he looks the value each way.

 

AMBIENTE FRIENDLY 1 point each way @ 13/2 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Epsom 5.15

A decent 1M 4F class 2 handicap for four year old olds and upwards is up next with a good sized turnout of fifteen. That man Oisin Murphy has a decent looking chance on Andrew Balding’s Relentless Voyager but it’s the Harry Eustace trained Ziggy that catches my eye. Lightly raced for a six year old he ran into one here over a shorter trip when runner up to the subsequent winner Crystal Delight, form that has worked out well since and stepping up a couple of furlongs and on a handicap mark he’s won before off of, all be it on the all-weather, can be competitive under Richard Kingscote.

 

ZIGGY 1 point each way @ 13/2 888Sport 1/5th 1234

 

Epsom 5.50

Derby day finishes with a maximum sixteen runner class 2 6F 0-105 handicap. Last year’s winner Badri is back to defend his title against the runner up and third Apollo One and Mr Wagyu. In first time cheek pieces he has obvious claims from stall four but it’s the third Mr Wagyu who will be carrying my money. He won this race two years ago from a 4lb higher mark than today and is now 8lb and 11lb better off with the two that finished ahead of him a year ago. He’s shown enough in two starts this season to suggest that he retains all of his ability at the age of nine years and John & Sean Quinn’s chestnut will be having his 86th start of his career. He looks good value to win again from stall 10 under his usual jockey Jason Hart.

 

MR WAGYU 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

[black rabbit]

The Coffee Pod                                                3 10 Eps/           1/40th of a pt ew      50/1

Rock Melody                                                     2 15 Ms/           1/40th of a pt ew       12/1           -4th

Commander Crouch                                       1 25 Eps/           1/40th of a pt ew      44/1

Glimpsed                                                          2 00 Eps/           1/40th of a pt ew      18/1

Voyage                                                              4 30 Eps/           1/40th of a pt ew      28/1            -V/B

God's Window                                                 4 30 Eps/           1/40th of a pt ew      80/1

Kamboo                                                           4 30 Eps/            1/40th of a pt ew     125/1

Edited June 2 by black rabbit