Racing Chat - Saturday 4th May

[The Brigadier]

Newmarket 1.45

Sixteen speedy animals go to post for the 6F class 2 handicap. It looks open but my shortlist comprises of the unexposed Charlie Hills runner Rabaah who’s been gelded since a decent fifth at York last June. His trainer still thinks he can make up into a pattern performer so has to be given plenty of respect. The veteran Summerghand was a massive eye catcher last time when running on to finish in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Craven meeting to finish fifth. Will he back that run up though? I’m not sure. Also there with claims is the Jack Channon runner Chairmanoftheboard who was runner up in this last year from a one pound lower mark and showed he retains all of his ability when runner up in a similar contest at Newbury last month won by Wiltshire. He’s the main pick although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Rabaah.

 

CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

RABAAH 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 Coral 1/5th 12345

 

Goodwood 2.05

Eight fillies or mares have declared for this 1M listed William Hill Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes run over a mile. Most of these are proven on soft ground so the underfoot conditions shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Simon & Ed Crisford’s Choisya won at the big meeting here last August from the re-opposing Novus on soft ground and should strip fitter than most having run well when going down by a head in a listed race on the all-weather at Kempton last month. She should be thereabouts but it’s the lightly raced William Haggas trained Orchid Bloom that may be the answer to this puzzle. She has soft or heavy ground form figures of 112 with the latter second coming in a listed race at Saint-Cloud last September going down by the shortest of margins. She’s run well fresh in the past and can take the first prize under Cieran Fallon.

 

ORCHID BLOOM 1 point win @ 7/2 Betfred

 

Newmarket 2.20

Another class 2 sixteen runner handicap with this one being run over 1M 1F. Again the race has a wide open look about it with the most interesting runner being the John & Thady Gosden entry Torito who was last seen running fourth at Royal Ascot in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes. He is 10lb higher now but if straight enough can feature at the business end. Plenty of these would prefer softer conditions and they include the likes of Liberty Lane, Mr Professor, Lattam and Theoryofeverything. One horse who won’t mind what the underfoot conditions are is Charlie Johnston’s Dutch Decoy who ran the re-opposing Hafeet Alain to a nose here at the Craven meeting and meets his rival on 4lb better terms which should be enough to turn the tables on him. The other Charlie Johnston runner here is Lion Of War who has the services of Oisin Murphy and returns to the Johnston stable having raced (just the once) for Brendan Walsh in America. He had previously ben a useful sort in handicaps notably when runner up at Royal Ascot in the Golden Gates Handicap off a mark 5lb lower than today’s. He can also be competitive but in a race where it may pay to keep stakes small the pick is the Dutch Decoy.

 

DUTCH DECOY 1 point each way @ 8/1 Coral 1/5th 12345

 

Thirsk 2.40

A maximum field of sixteen head to post for Thirsk’s big race of the day in the Vickers.bet Thirsk Hunt Cup run over a mile. Last year’s one - two Northern Express and Pisanello are back to challenge for the valuable prize and it maybe last year’s runner up Pisanello that can turn the table’s on his old rival on 5lb better terms for that 3/4L defeat. That was his first run of the season so we know that he can go well fresh and he went on from that fine effort to strike twice later in the season at Hamilton. He’s back on his last winning mark and an inside draw of stall one is always favourable on the turning track at Thirsk. Mark Winn has got on well with David O’Meara’s seven year old in the past, including in this race last year and looks good each way value in an open contest in which he could easily have been targeted at.

 

PISANELLO 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th12345

 

Newmarket 2.55

A rather disappointing renewal of the 5F Group 3 William Hill Palace House Stakes with eight going to post. The best in at the weights is the Charlie Hills trained Mitbaahy who ran well at the last meeting on his first run for Hills when fourth of 14 in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes won by Washington Heights. A reproduction of that run should see him go close and he’s the pick ahead of the only three year old in the field, the Karl Burke trained filly Beautiful Diamond who was last seen winning a listed race at Ayr at the Western meeting.

 

MITBAAHY 1 point win @ 7/2 Unibet

 

Newmarket 3.35

The first classic of the season is the Qipco 2000 Guineas run over a mile and this Group One contest has attracted eleven runners. At the top of the betting is the potential superstar City Of Troy. Aidan O’Brien’s unbeaten Justify colt has looked a bit special in winning his three races as a juvenile culminating in success here over 7F in the Dewhurst. The extra furlong will not be a problem nor will any further easing of the ground. He’ll be very hard to beat and has the potential to be the best we’ve seen for a very long time. Second favourite Rosallion will be no pushover though as he was a very useful two year old who took the Group 1 Prix Jean-Lagardere at Longchamp on Arc weekend. His only disappointing run last year came on very soft ground so he wouldn’t want the ground to get too soft. Two interesting runners are the unbeaten pair of the Charlie Appleby trained Notable Speech who showed a sparkling turn of foot to win on the all weather a month ago at Kempton and the Karl Burke trained Night Raider who’s looked good in winning two all-weather races and again impressed in a racecourse gallop at the Craven meeting. Both have to prove themselves on turf mind and the selection has to be City Of Troy who could be very special. If he wins this he will be a very short price for the Derby so maybe back him in the special price 2000/Derby double rather than at today’s cramped odds.

 

CITY OF TROY 2 points win double (to win 2000 Gns & Derby) 2/1 Ladbrokes

[yossa6133]

Hugueneau 7:25 Utto (2/1 Bet365). Caught the eye at Market Rasen when not quite lasting home on rain softened ground. Good run back after a little break a Ffos Las and would go close with a similar effort here.

2pts win 2/1 bet365

 

Unreal, I just can't get a horse to run properly at the moment. Didn't settle and didn't jump.

 

P/L: -11.3 pts

Edited May 4 by yossa6133