Tennis Tips - April 22 - April 28

[CzechPunter]

[Torque]

  On 4/21/2024 at 2:07 AM, Grass Cash said:

Ok here's my leans on tomorrow's final matches.. Maybe you guys can chime in with your opinions or if you agree with anything. 

Rouen: Stephens for me. I was leaning towards Linette in the semi-finals as a dog, but I've seen some of Stephens earlier in the tournament, and I knew that I would probably not go against her for the duration of the tournament. Now that she is in the finals.. that logic still holds. I am not tempted to bet her much, but I will include her in some parlay potentially for lower stakes. 

Munich: I saw Fritz in the quarterfinals, and he was playing extremely well. I had backed him to beat Garin, and I imagine this was a comfortable win. I do think Struff is tougher competition especially on home soil, but I am still leaning Fritz to win the match with low confidence. 

Bucharest: I have not watched these matches, but I know that Fucsovics and Navone have both been dominating. It feels like a home tournament for Marton. I wonder if Navone has run out of gas but his clay court runs have been impressive. He is clearly skilled, and is a nice competitor. I have lean with Fucsovics low confidence.

Stuttgart: I have backed Kostyuk in the quarterfinals, and liked her odds in R16 also vs Zheng.. This has been my primary tournament of focus, and wrote extensive analysis in another forum regarding the court conditions in Stuttgart favoring taller players. That proved true in the semi-finals when both underdogs won at nice odds. I predicted Vondrousova to beat Kostyuk there, but was lucky enough to stay away from betting Marketa. I have lean on Rybakina to win the match with low confidence. 

Barcelona: One of the few European cities I've visited, and had a great time. I have watched some of these matches but not either of the semi-finals. I have sneaky feeling that Ruud would like some revenge clearly from Monte Carlo Final. This is not match I feel good about betting, and have no real opinion as to who will win.. I do think this is the most exciting match out of the five tournaments, and would love to have a bet. Unfortunately, it feels like I'm doomed to lose with whoever I select.

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Agree about Stephens - I backed her for the tournament a couple of rounds back and she looks dialled-in which is a rare sight. Although saying that, she's currently playing a sloppy 2nd set against Linette after flaming through the 1st and the match is set to go the distance. Who knows what happens then but it's fair to say Linette is the more consistent and reliable player so my hopes won't be high.

Munich is done and Struff got the win. Typical Struff really - every now and then he goes on a tear-up and this week was one of those weeks. As you said, home conditions helped him and what also helped is he's more comfortable on clay than Fritz is - although the American is definitely improving on the surface.

Bucharest final has started and I'd have backed Navone as the younger, hungrier player - which would have been a mistake as he's just lost in straights. Maybe it's like you said and Navone ran out of gas.

Stuttgart is also done and Rybakina was an easy winner. I'd have backed her which would have been an easy decision to make after she outlasted Swiatek. As much as Rybakina's levels can fluctuate, having just beaten the best clay player in the world and beaten her pretty well and with this being a final it was hard to see her not playing well and that proved to be the case. As an aside, I didn't like the look of Swiatek at all this week but she'll still be a big favourite for RG and so there could be some good prices elsewhere. Increasingly it looks to me that she struggles when put under pressure, which seems to be happening more than it used to - as though the other players have figured out how to play her. When you steamroll through match after match you lack the practice of dealing with tight matches and that's also a factor in Swiatek looking panicky when it's not a procession for her.

Barcelona final has just started and Tsitsipas has an early break. I'm on him to win the tournament but it's far too early to say that's a done deal. I'll be surprised if there isn't more than two sets and I think there'll be plenty of fluctuations as nerves play a part. Tsitsipas is 0-10 in finals like these and Ruud has never won a tournament at this level.