philipwalsh19 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I was wondering how the odds markets would react to Ivan Toney's return tomorrow. I suspected that there may be a few factors at play 1. Toney himself will be chomping at the bit to make an impact. He might be more willing to take on shots from distance/angles that he might have passed up previously 2. Punters may over-rate his ability to be anywhere near his best form after such a long break 3. With all the press, bookies will take a lot of bets on him 4. Bookies may (unwisely, from a PR perspective IMHO) try to capitalise on his return by offering Toney related specials. Let's see if any pop up tomorrow... I looked at the shot on target market. Based on last season's stats, these are his implied odds (decimal) 1+ SoT = 72.75% -> 1.37 (best odds: 1.33) 2+ SoT = 37.26% -> 2.68 (best odds: 1.6) 3+ SoT = 14.04% -> 7.1 (best odds: 5.5) 4+ SoT = 3.99% -> 25.06 (best odds: 15.0) I put the best bookies (not exchange) odds afterwards. In terms of shots on target against, Forest concede just a shade over average - which makes using a 22/23 season average easier to swallow. Is there any value there? Depends on what weight you'd give to the 4 factors above, plus others no doubt. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Interesting thoughts, hadn’t realised he was due back. First thought is I’d rather be on Maupay to score at 9/4 than Toney at 5/4 and that Wood 3/1 is the most appealing price. Will take a closer look later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philipwalsh19 Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: Interesting thoughts, hadn’t realised he was due back. First thought is I’d rather be on Maupay to score at 9/4 than Toney at 5/4 and that Wood 3/1 is the most appealing price. Will take a closer look later. For the Anytime goalscorer market you might have a point, as it may be asking a lot for Toney to play the full 90mins on his first game back - although you'd expect him to be back on penalties, even though Mbuemo was 3 from 3 in his absence. If I was backing Toney I think I'd rather be on 3+ SoT @ 9/2 than anytime goalscorer at 5/4. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I don’t have much read on the Toney situation other than there aren’t any prices that scream out to be backed and a watching brief scenario seems wisest. I have taken evens with Uni for Wood to have 2 or more shots. Odds on everywhere else, much shorter in a few places. Feels like evens for something that is slightly more likely to happen than not to me. I also think I’ll be on him to score at 3/1 or better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 On 1/19/2024 at 3:35 PM, philipwalsh19 said: For the Anytime goalscorer market you might have a point, as it may be asking a lot for Toney to play the full 90mins on his first game back - although you'd expect him to be back on penalties, even though Mbuemo was 3 from 3 in his absence. Traded his price on the exchange a bit yesterday, ended up with a risk free £7 if he scores! On Wood at 4.3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philipwalsh19 Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 You've played a blinder Harry. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, philipwalsh19 said: You've played a blinder Harry. Thanks for posting your thoughts which got me taking a closer look. Would’ve been on Wood as a clear system pick but not the shots bet and the Toney trade but for your post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philipwalsh19 Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Very welcome mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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