Road to the Cheltenham Festival Hunter Chase

[Darran]

Time to start up the thread again for another season. Some of the leading contenders have already been out over in Ireland although those trained over here have yet to run. A few bookies have priced up the race and to start I will go through those at the head of the market.

 

Ferns Lock - Many people felt he should have gone to Cheltenham last year, but young horses have got a very poor recent record in the race and the fact he was beaten at 4/11 at Fairyhouse over Easter did suggest to me connections made the right decision. He returned last month at Dromahane where he was reportedly 80% fit and drifted in the betting although still going off favourite in a 13 runner field. He put in a very impressive performance though and showed the class he showed plenty of times last season. The 2^nd Dinny Lacey won on his next start to give the form a boost as well. At this stage I agree with his position at the head of the market because he was one of the top 3 horses I saw last year. My guess is we will see him at Down Royal on Boxing Day next. 

 

Its On The Line - Flew up the run-in last season to finish 2^nd to Premier Magic and after falling at Aintree went on to win at Punchestown beating Vaucelet by a length. He did run again after that when being beaten in a point by Cheltenham 4^th Rocky's Howya. He ran the week before Ferns Lock at Damma House and beat the ex Paul Nicholls trained Jeremy Pass by 1/2L. It was a solid start and it wouldn't be a shock if he went to Down Royal either. He was beaten 12L by Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse last November, but he was in better form later in the season. He is the same age as Ferns Lock and there ought to be more to come. Easy to see why he is 2^nd in the betting.

 

Ramillies - Was with Willie Mullins, but is now with David Christie. He pulled up in the Brown Advisory last season and was 6^th in the Albert Bartlett the year before. He was only 3^rd in his first two points, but then won twice in back to back weeks last month beating Hardline by 4L and then won by 44L. The trainer mentioned going to Down Royal with him which would give us a better idea as to where he stands with the likes of Ferns Lock, but I would be with his stablemate at this stage.

 

Samcro - Wasn't able to run in British hunter chases last season, but can now and after winning at Tinahely last month Gordon Elliott said he would have one further run before going to Cheltenham. He ran in 3 points last year and was very impressive in wining all 3. The win last month was by a much shorter margin, but he did it snugly. He had lost his way big time under rules and was rated 146 over fences when last seen. I would like to see that next run in a hunter chase because I want to gain a better idea as to if he is a reformed horse or if he just enjoyed going pointing and as soon as he goes back under rules he goes back to his former ways. What I will say is that he would have to be in much better form to be a winning chance in this than he was when last seen under rules and horses with his profile don't seem to win the race anymore.

 

Famous Clermont - Failed to get up the hill last season and then duly made amends at Aintree. He's not run yet, but connections are of the thinking he doesn't stay and so will skip Cheltenham. I must admit I would be tempted to give him another go especially on decent ground, because horses who have looked like non-stayers in the past have gone on to win this race. On The Fringe is the one that really springs to mind regarding that and I think Famous Clermont might be capable of doing something similar if allowed to. Is set to start off his season at Larkhill on New Years Eve.

 

Vaucelet - Was sent off favourite for this last year and never threatened to get involved although in the end he was only beaten 10L in 7^th so it wasn't a dreadful run. After that he was 2^nd at Punchestown, Downpatrick and Stratford and he has become a little bit frustrating. I know he could be in for a long season, but the fact he has only finished 3^rd in his two runs so far this season doesn't exactly bode well. Based on that you could add a 0 to his 10/1 quote for this and even if he does get back into form he is behind Ferns Lock in the stables pecking order.

 

Premier Magic - Last year's winner won't be going off at 66/1 this time around that's for certain! Yet to be seen and I don't know of the plan with him, but he did return at the Chaddesley Corbett meeting over Christmas last season so would be no shock if that was his seasonal return this time around.

 

Rocky's Howya - He was a very progressive horse in Irish points last season and it was no surprise to see him run a blinder in this back in March. In the end he finished 4^th after leading and then getting hampered by a loose horse on the run-in. He won 3 more points after that including beating Its On The Line. He is yet to reappear this season, but hopefully all is well as he looks an exciting horse for this season.

 

Fakir D'Alene - Was 2^nd in a point to start the season off, but he then finished 3^rd in the Troytown and his trainer said he would be running in the big handicap chases this season so doesn't look a likely runner.

 

Secret Investor - Fell in this last year early on, but did go on to win the big one at Stratford in good style. His trainer did say in his stable tour though that he thinks the horse doesn't like Cheltenham and won't be aimed at the race.

 

The Bosses Oscar - Has run in 4 points already, but the only victory came first time out at the start of October. Was beaten 13L into 4^th by Ferns Lock and whilst he has qualified he wouldn't look to be good enough at this stage.

 

Time Leader - The only horse worth mentioning from Britain that has run this season. Was a massive improver for Joe O'Shea last season and whilst his name isn't down as the trainer anymore, you can be guaranteed he is still heavily involved. Ran a huge race at Aintree and it seems that rather than Cheltenham is the target. Was hugely impressive first up this season, but then pulled up in very testing ground at Chaddesley Corbett. He's better than that, but my feeling is 3m2f round Cheltenham would stretch his stamina.

[Darran]

Time to catch up with everything that has happened in the last month or so and plenty has happened regarding Cheltenham.

 

The obvious place to start is the hunter chase at Down Royal on Boxing Day where Its On The Line just wore down Ferns Lock on the run-in and not surprisingly has disposed him at the head of the market for The Festival. After 3 out the winner got outpaced and looked like he was going to finish 3^rd at best as Ferns Lock and Ramillies went on, but the latter got very tired and the former just wasn't able to repel the winners challenge late on. Given Ferns Lock is quite a free going sort I struggle to see how he is going to stay 3m2f at Cheltenham at this stage of his career. We know from Its On The Line's run in the race last year that he stays the trip very well and I just don't see how Ferns Lock could reverse the form in March. If he were mine I'd be tempted to skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree which looks tailormade for him. I know his owner has backed him for Cheltenham though so I suspect he will go there if he is fit and well. Given the way Ramillies faded into 4^th he doesn't appeal as a possible contender at this stage, although he did win again back pointing on Sunday. Vaucelet, who was a further 18L back in 5th, looks, as his pointing form suggested, to have totally lost his form.

 

The other hunter chase in Ireland over Christmas was the maiden one at Limerick and Its On The Line's stablemate, Romeo Magico landed that. The form has been boosted since as the 2^nd has won since. His trainer likes him and thinks he got away with the ground and will be a nice horse in the spring. He hasn't qualified for this yet and surely Its On The Line will be the stables leading contender if he does decide to run Romeo Magico as well.

 

Famous Clermont is currently 3^rd in the betting and I only mention him here because of that as connections have only talked about him going to Aintree and I still view him as a very unlikely runner. He made his return at Larkhill on New Years Eve and having cruised into contention he then made a mistake at 2 out and tired very quickly. Will allowed him to cost home after that and he was a 33L 3^rd in the end. His trainer has said since that whilst he thought he had left a bit to work on he clearly had left more than he thought. I'm sure he will improve as the season goes on. The winner of that race was a horse called Grace A Vous Enki who used to be trained by Paul Nicholls and is only rated 113 over fences at the moment. Nicky Sheppard though has clearly got him in much better form than that though and this was his 2^nd easy win of the season after he won at Larkhill earlier in December as well. I think his performances can be upgraded because he has jumped left on both wins which suggests he wants to be going left handed. He's not in the betting for Cheltenham at the moment, but he should be.

 

Onto last year's winner Premier Magic and after Chaddesley Corbett was called off over Christmas he headed to Sheriff Hutton on Sunday instead. He went off at 2/7 and won just as easily as the odds suggested. It was a solid test though as the race took 7m23s to run and it should bring him on nicely. He is set for one more prep race prior to his attempt at keeping hold of his crown. 

 

The first hunter chase of the season in the UK was at Taunton last Monday and it saw Regatta De Blanc win on rules debut after 3 pointing wins all at Larkhill. I thought she showed plenty of inexperience in the jumping stakes and also through greenness, but she beat a very good field. Some people might want to crab the form based on the 2nd, but I think he showed improved form and I think the form will stand up as the season goes on. However I wouldn't go near the Cheltenham Festival with her this season as whilst next year she might well be capable of being up to running in it, I don't think she has the experience at the moment. She also isn't qualified yet and Will didn't really seem to mention that Cheltenham was the target. If she was mine I would be aiming her at the mares race on hunter chase night at Cheltenham to give her cause experience and the 14/1 makes no appeal at all at this stage.

 

Another horse who has just had 4 starts is the Irish 7yo Hitak. He was stuffed on debut on April 2022, but he looks a different horse on his 3 runs last month and on Sunday. He bolted up in his maiden at Tattersalls Farm and then at the end of the month he went straight into open company and he won. It wasn't like he beat rubbish though because Winged Leader was the horse who finished 2nd. On Sunday he was an easy winner of another open to qualify for Cheltenham. I'd like to see him under rules first (entered at Thurles on Sunday) and again although he is clearly very useful it is some ask for a horse with such little experience to win a race like this.

 

Fakir D'alene is in the betting at 10/1, but he ran in the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas where he brought down at the 5th. As much as he was 2^nd in a point back in October his 2 runs in big handicaps since suggest he is going for big handicaps rather than this.

 

Sine Nomine has been talked of as being a possible Cheltenham contender, but she was beaten by Wagner on seasonal return at Alnwick. It was testing ground and he had match fitness on his side, but I've never really felt she was Cheltenham class and this performance backs that up.

 

Tea Clipper is priced up at 16/1 and he was declared at Ludlow on Thursday and is entered at Warwick on Monday. That would suggest they want to get him qualified for this. Simply The Betts was going to be David Maxwell's runner, but sadly he passed away.

 

On Sunday at Thurles as I mentioned Hitak is entered along side Billaway, Ferns Lock, Hardline and Romeo Magic. Could well be a race which tells us more.

 

I'm certainly not suggesting a bet at this stage, but if you asked me now which horse I think will win this year's race I would have to say Its On The Line.