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Racing chat - Saturday 8th July


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3.40

Coral Eclipse

Paddington

Win

Win saver

Dubai honour

win

Poor turnout and once again a tactical affair. I really hope Paddy can win here.

Maybe Ryan Moore can replicate his sensational run on Notnowcato of a few years ago and pull off a sneaky blindsider on the stand side.

The globetrotter Dubai honour has been to Australia and won there twice and has form in the middle east so won't be hanging around and to me looks a big price. Emily Upjohn was impressive last time although workout in Suffolk not gone  to plan this week.

Buick riding as well as anyone this week. Could be anything and remember was due to be Frankie's big ride.

Edited by sporting sam
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4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

2.25 Sandown 

Perotto 9.87 6/1 won 

Silent Film 9.72 11/1

Intellogent 9.7 12/1

Orbaan 9.69 40/1

Im using this race to double up with the race above purely because it’s paying the most places on the day with the race above. 1.50 ew doubles = 6 points . Top two with top two above race although Euchen and Dark Jedi both came down in price from yesterday 12/1 and 16/1 

6.90 returned as there was a non runner as one of the doubles so it returned a single win

Edited by Villa Chris
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17 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Coral Eclipse is a total waste of money when racing is struggling,  getting on a million in prizemoney. The winner becomes a group 1 winner beating 3 rivals. That money should be redistributed down to the lower levels of racing (which i dislike) it could add  £1,000 to a 1,000 races at least it will encourage more less wealthy owners. Any group race that doesn't attract at least 6 runners at 48 hour stage should be voided or let them run just for the black Type no prizemoney. That's my little rant over.

I don't think you can say that race was a total waste of money any more than you could say St Marks Basilica winning a 4 runner Eclipse or Pebbles beating Rainbow Quest in 1985 in a 4 runner Eclipse were. Paddington and Emily Upjohn are both absolutely top class and owners of lesser horses would rather run their horses at a slightly lower level than breaking their hearts taking them on. 

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6 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

6.00 Bellewstown 

Tronador 9.5 14/1

Sundial 9.31 4/1

These two bit clear of the rest . Tronadors last couple of hurdle runs last year were poor but i believe that was down to distance(3m) and soft ground . His optimum trip is around 2m -2.4m and he runs at 2.1 today and off a very winnable mark. He comes here in good form on the flat at similar distances, so should be primed for this. He also has a good claimer in Ben Harvey taking 5Ibs off so is effectively running off 120.  The JP horse who’s favourite Sundial has a very good profile to take this but I’m glad I’ve got the 14/1 shot as my bet. 
 

5 points win 

Stayed on well to finish a close 3rd but not good enough today 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +110.19

Edited by Villa Chris
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Carlisle 6.52

Lady Celia

Each way

Somewhere secret

Win 

Bellewstown 7pm

Quickbuck

Each way

Unseated rider late on when towards rear. Two horses unseated at the same time.

Ex Nicky Henderson inmate who may cause an upset one day, off a very generous mark. 

Chapel street

win

Win and third on reappearance and another good run would put this runner right up there.

Edited by sporting sam
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4 hours ago, Bang on said:

4.02 Bev - Golden Melody - 10/1 EW (1/5th 3 places with365) - Has slipped to her lowest mark since 2021. Top course Jockey, and Top course Trainer combo, this CD winner should at least get placed and at 10/1 is a fair EW selection.

2nd 12/1 - almost but at least the place part ensured a small profit.

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Bellewstown bumper

8.30

IVANA & INTENSE APPROACH

Are hard to separate.

The Mullins yard have got the inside track as Dr eggman conceed over a stone in beating John McConnell's expensive Cheltenham sales purchase. Intense approach will have the benefit of a half stone claimer on board and goes off here as market leader.

IVANA carries a winners penalty and Patrick Mullins rides which means he carries half stone + overweight.

I recommend a reverse forecast here.

Reading what Mullins himself says

"Ivana (Patrick) goes for the winners bumper. She won nicely on her debut at Limerick in May and we are expecting another big run today. She stands out as the one to beat.".

It is a rare opportunity to back a Mullins bumper horse @ 6/4

So as a percentage call I also recommend

IVANA

Win.bet

 

Edited by sporting sam
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Bellewstown

8pm

 

 

Macgiloney

Each way

130 rated winner and Denis Hogan may have this one right. Two from two here and a very lightly raced sort.

A last fence faller when in the lead recently, so arrives full of hope.

Easy fella

Win

Wide margin winner of a maiden hurdle.

Not much the handicapper can do on handicap debut and six pounds rise with Racheal Blackmore up spells danger.

Edited by sporting sam
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1 hour ago, Alastair said:

I don't think you can say that race was a total waste of money any more than you could say St Marks Basilica winning a 4 runner Eclipse or Pebbles beating Rainbow Quest in 1985 in a 4 runner Eclipse were. Paddington and Emily Upjohn are both absolutely top class and owners of lesser horses would rather run their horses at a slightly lower level than breaking their hearts taking them on. 

Its all about opinion my friend. But i will say this. Group racing is all about breeding so more than money and if the UK can't at least get 8 runners for a group 1 then it explains why racing in this country is in a mess. Ireland gets plenty as does France eg 12 runners in the G1 prix Jean prat tomorrow. How many (plenty) UK G1 performers will turn up for the arc meeting?

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Bellewstown 8.30

Bumper.

Intense Approach to win by 5.0 lengths or more @ 6/5

IVANA has been withdrawn and that is as good an endorsement to the chances of intense approach (who was only narrowly beaten by another good Mullins horse Dr Eggman ) as any.

His odds to win are 2/7, his rival would have carried full weight without a claimer and intense approach goes into the battle therefore "theoretically" upwards of one and a half stones clear of the field.

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Carlisle 8.52

Zumaty

Win

Tarnhelm

Each way

********************************

Five winners

Paddington 🐻

Encanto Bruno won by a wide margin to win the distance bet  @ 7/4

Buying buyin

Ramazan

Intense approach won by a big margin @ 6/4 for five lengths 

Not a good day

Two each way successes

Lady Celia @ 16/1 placed

Thunder flash @ 18/1placed.

Edited by sporting sam
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9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Advise 1 L15 on the Daily.  I hope that Will Buick and @The Brigadier have a good day

Already advised 11 points on the 3.15 at HD 7 points w Maksud at 7/1 and 2 pts ew on Euchen Glen at 16/1 5p.  Good luck to @richard-westwood' selections

Total stakes = 13 points today

RESULTS UPDATE

Had a double on the daily 15 so 3.95 returned.

Sad news about Maksud, the RP says he was fatally injured. Very sad.

A loss of 9.05 today, MTD -4.80 & YTD +13.74

My RW growth fund has dropped to 203.76 so back to 10 points outlay on his next event

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