Stratford hunter chase night

[Darran]

It should be a good night of action to conclude the 2023 hunter chase season and hopefully it can be a profitable end as well. David Kemp has had a hell of a season with a very high strike rate and I am hopeful that will continue this evening. As for the going they are putting even more water down this morning so it might end up being on the slower side of good.

 

Prices right as of 8.00

 

5.35/8.40

Magic Saint/Old Guard 1pt double @ 3/1 with Bet365

6.05 

Rebel Dawn Rising 2pts @ 5/2 with everyone (take up to 2/1)

Normofthenorth 0.5pts @ 10/1 with everyone (14/1 with Bet365 and take up to 7/1)

6.35

Quintin's Man 3pts @ 5/4 with everyone (take up to Evs)

7.05 

Law Of Gold 4pts @ 9/4 with everyone (take up to 5/4)

Clara Sorrento 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with everyone (take up to 8/1)

7.35 

Caryto Des Brosses 3pts @ 11/8 with Bet365 (take up to 6/5)

Sixteen Letters 0.5pts @ 7/2 with the majority (take up 11/4)

8.05 

Captain Biggles 1pt @ 7/4 with everyone (take up to 6/4)

Runwiththetide 0.5pts @ 8/1 with everyone (take up to 6/1)

 

5.35

Capitaine - Passed the post in 1^st in this race in 2021 only for Sam Waley-Choen to weigh in light. Won the 2m hunter chase at Leicester last year, but was a well beaten 5^th in this. Only run since then was in a Newbury handicap on New Years Eve and he pulled up. This is his trip, but it is a stronger race than 2021 so I'm not sure he will be good enough.

 

Magic Saint - Good 2^nd to Bennys King at Hereford and than was value for more than the 13L winning margin over Diligent at Wincanton in March. Bit disappointing in the Aintree Foxhunters when only 13^th and was 4^th at Cheltenham last time behind Paloma Blue. He travelled into the race really well, but I don't think he quite saw the trip out up the hill in what was a good race. Coped with this sort of trip earlier in his career and a leading chance.

 

Kaproyale - Ground will be ideal for him which it wasn't when he was 2^nd to Sine Nomine here in April. Been very good in points having won 8 of 11 and finished 2^nd on two occasions including to Famous Clermont on New Years Day, albeit he was well beaten by him. Was impressive at Huntingdon last week although the race did fall to pieces and a maiden ended up finishing 2^nd so the form is open to question. Like I say though the ground is ideal for him and this trip should be fine as well so he's one of the possible winners.

 

Avoir De Soins - Hasn't been seeing 3m out in points this season so the drop in trip should help, but his only win came off 91 over 2m4f at Lingfield in November 2020 and I doubt he will be good enough.

 

Due Reward - Had been struggling on ground which wouldn't have suited this season including in a hunter chase at Ludlow where he pulled up behind Fix It All. Finally got quick ground at Mollington a month ago and won over 2m4f having been well backed. The form isn't overly strong as the 2^nd is only rated 82 under rules, but he did win on his next start which does boost the form a bit. Wouldn't rule him out for a top trainer and Gina Andrews is on top.

 

Flaminger - Another one who hasn't been staying over 3m in points and was also well beaten over 2m4f at Tabley in April. This trip will suit better, but he looked regressive when last seen under rules and its hard to see him being good enough.

 

Le Correzian - Was very well backed last time at Bitterley where he clearly didn't stay. There was also a bit of support for him on his debut for current connections in a Mixed Open at Buckfastleigh where he was still travelling well until unseating at 5 out. His win in France was over 2m1f so clearly this trip didn't suit. Didn't show too much in a couple of starts for Henry de Bromhead in Ireland, but I suspect that connections have been waiting for this race given his lack of stamina and the fact they must think he's good because of the money for him. A bold showing wouldn't surprise.

 

Rewritetherules - Was 75L behind Magic Saint at Wincanton and hard to give him much of a chance on that let alone what he has done since.

 

Sending Love - Struggled all season and likely to do so here.

 

Verdict - A few of these have need dropping in trip as they haven't been staying in points, but then you have to work out if they are actually good enough to win. Le Correzian is interesting as he is likely to improve for the trip from what he has shown so far. Due Reward has a chance on his favourite going and Capitaine can't be ruled out completely given he 'won' this 2 years ago. I do think though that Magic Saint is the one to beat. He's shown strong form this season and even the 4^th at Cheltenham last time is better than what anything else in the race has achieved of late. He didn't stay that night and this trip should be ideal for him and I expect him to be ridden more prominently as he was when winning at Wincanton. Kaproyle is the main danger with the ground in his favour, but this will be tougher than Huntingdon.

 

6.05

Envious Editor - Ran as well as could have been hoped at Cheltenham behind Fier Jaguen and Caryto Des Brosses and it was an improved performance from Ludlow. Still not sure he's in as good form as he was when winning at Taunton in the first hunter chase of the season for his former trainer though. Bold showing wouldn't surprise, but happy enough to take on.

 

Shantou Flyer - As good as ever at 13 having run a stormer to finish 3^rd at Cheltenham behind Premier Magic. He then went on to easily beat Singapore Saga at Exeter. Given he hadn't stayed 4m last season I was surprised that they gave him another go in that race at Cheltenham last month and he's run well enough to finish 2^nd behind Law Of Gold. What surprises me here though is they are dropping him down in trip to 2m6f which I'm not sure will suit on quick ground round this sharper track. I'd have chanced my arm by running him in the big race. Clearly has the ability to win though if he gets away with that.

 

Solomon Grey - Didn't stay at all in the big race on this night last year when he finished 5^th behind Vaucelet which came on the back of a very good win at Cheltenham. Trainer never has them ready 1^st time out so the 6^th at Taunton can be ignored. He then injured himself and returned with a decent enough 2^nd at Ludlow to Secret Investor. After that he tried to keep hold of his Cheltenham crown, but it probably came a little bit too soon even so it was a very good run to finish 3rd. What surprises me is 8 days later they ran him at Peper Harrow and he was just beaten by Count Simon who he was 23L in front of in that Cheltenham race. I'm not sure why they ran him in that, but he would still rate a contender in this.

 

Dandy Dan - Did really well to beat Caryto Des Brosses at Cheltenham last year and then followed that up with a good 3^rd in the big race behind Vaucelet. This season hasn't been so good though. He wasn't fit first time out at Garthorpe when 3^rd to Law Of Gold and then the ground went against him at The Festival. What was most disappointing was his run in the race he won last year as he was well beaten in the end when 4th. He did win a point a couple of weeks ago, but he was 1/5 and the time was very slow which shows how much better he was than the opposition. The ground should be ideal and if he was in the same form as last year then he would have a chance, but I do suspect that the trip will be sharp enough anyway.

 

Normofthenorth - Has a superb record in points over here having won 9 of his 14 starts including both starts this season at Kimble and Godstone. Both were small fields, but he did beat a horse at Godstone who has won 5 times this season including on his next start. He had a serious injury so he was lucky to even see a course again and this was the target after he won at Kimble. His trainer also mentioned they had planned to run him in the race last year, but he had a hard race when winning at Fakenham. It is hard to know what he achieved that day because the unexposed 2^nd hasn't been seen since and it was a weak race. This is quite a strong renewal, but he is one of the possible winners.

 

Rebel Dawn Rising - A new personal best by someway at Cheltenham last time when 2^nd to Premier Magic. He was the only one to give The Festival winner a race and he just didn't stay up the hill. The biggest worry about him could be the last fence because he ran down it at Fakenham the time before when he had the race won and threw Alex Chadwick over the fence as he jumped it. He looked like he just thought about it at Cheltenham as well although it could have been more because he was tired. Alice Stevens is a cracking booking for the horse and this shorter trip should be perfect for him. Has a massive chance for me.

 

Say About It - Won the Restricted race on this card last year when he outstayed the 2nd. Hasn't done too badly this season running against some good horses, but bumps into some good horses here as well and hard to see him winning this.

 

Minella Encore - His jockey Talor Hopkins has little experience, but she has done well on this horse who used to be trained by Dr Newland having won 3 times on him this season. His worst run of the season was when he pulled up behind Shantou Flyer at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas, but Talor said he hated the sticky ground that day which won't be a problem here. Still got a rating of 128 under rules and whilst he probably isn't up to that anymore this test does look ideal for him so a bold showing wouldn't surprise.

 

Wheesht - Been well beaten in a couple of hunter chases this season and whilst he did win a point over 2m4f at Eyton over Easter I doubt he will be good enough here.

 

Verdict - This is a decent race and I'd only really completely rule out Say About It and Whessht. Having said that I am very keen on Rebel Dawn Rising. He looks an improved horse this season and would have bolted up at Fakenham had he not messed around before the last. He was the only horse to give Premier Magic a race at Cheltenham and this trip should be much more suitable for him. Shantou Flyer clearly has the class, but I think they have him in the wrong race again and he will be tapped for toe round here over this trip. I am going to have a small e/w saver on Normofthenorth as this race has been the target and he has looked a progressive horse. Solomon Grey would be next in line.

 

6.35

Brave Starlight - Was a pretty weak maiden he won over in Ireland, but the 3^rd in a Tipperary hunter chase on his next start wasn't a bad effort. Even so he wouldn't appear to be good enough for this on his first start for David Dennis.

 

Dunworley - Would be some feat if he were to win this as a maiden and I guess given the prize money on offer they may as well have a go as even if he finishes last he gets £306. Was very well backed at Huntingdon last week which seemed bizarre given his form, but he ran well to finish 2nd. I do think that race fell apart a bit though and I'd be surprised if he was up to this.

 

Matthews Hill - Was 2^nd in the Bishopscourt Cup at the Punchestown Festival, but given the race conditions for that contest it is one of the worst races of the season. On the back of that though he was sent off favourite for a maiden hunter chase at Downpatrick a couple of weeks ago, but his jumping wasn't great and he came down at 4 out. Hard to say how he would have got on but it wasn't a strong race and it would be a bit disappointing if he was able to beat the best of the British.

 

Precious Bounty - Is a front runner and likely to make the running. Has got ground to make up on Sine Nomine based on their run over 2m6f here in April, but the rain got into the ground which wouldn't have suited him. He then dropped down to 2m and ran as well as could have been expected behind Fier Jaguen. The problem for me is I'm not sure he wants this much of a stamina test.

 

Quintin's Man - Loves a stamina test as he showed when winning the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham last month. He was really impressive that night and although I wondered beforehand if the ground would be too quick, he handled it fine. He had been 2^nd at Exeter the time before and that form is working out very well as I pointed out when Workin Out won at Cartmel on Monday. With Slievegar winning at Kelso on Sunday that is two hunter chase winners that he's had behind him in his last two starts. He's the one they have to beat although the one concern I would have is the quick ground as connections seem to think he doesn't want it too fast, but there is no doubt he has the best form coming into the race.

 

Sine Nomine - Jumping had looked a big issue especially when she ran in last year's Intermediate Final when finishing a well beaten 3rd, but she has turned that around in some style this season as she was very good when beating Kaproyale by 12L hard held. Now she was the only one of the fancied horses who wanted the rain softened ground, but even so it she did it in good style. She went to the mares race on Cheltenham hunter chase night and didn't quite see it out as she was beaten 0.5L by Miss Seagreen. For me she almost travels too well. What I mean by that is that you wouldn't call her keen as such, but she looks very enthusiastic and I just wonder if that left her slightly lacking in the finish. Clearly a big player in this though.

 

Verdict - The two horses with the Irish form don't look anything special, Dunworley is still a maiden and Precious Bounty would be a stamina doubt so that leaves the race between Quintin's Man and Sine Nomine. Whilst I do have a slight concern about the ground for the former I do think he is the one they have to beat. He is the strongest stayer in the field and I think he is the best horse in the field. There should be a fair gallop set by Precious Bounty so that should help him as well.

 

7.05

Cheltenham De Vaige - Ran well on the Cheltenham hunter chase night for the 2^nd year running when 3^rd to Law Of Gold, but that shows how much ground he has to make up on him and I can't see him reversing the form.

 

Clara Sorrento - Had a great season having won 4 on the bounce in points and he's clocked quick times as well. He might be 12, but he hasn't had much racing and didn't run from November 2018 in a Grade 3 at Cork until last March, a break of 1224 days! I suspect last year was about getting him back and after losing first time out this season he hasn't looked back. He is the yards 2^nd string, but I think he can give it a bold show from the front given the form he's been in this season.

 

Fr Humphrey - 15yo but he seems to be in the best form he's ever been in having won 3 of his last 4 races including causing one of the shocks of the Irish pointing season when he beat Rocky's Howya in April. He's won both point starts since although he was well beaten by Annamix in hunter chase inbetween those two victories and he really shouldn't be good enough to win this.

 

Law Of Gold - Loves it at this meeting having won the John Corbet Cup in 2019 and then landed this race in 2021. Last year he had to settle for 2^nd behind Vaucelet, but that came on the back of having had a hard race at Cheltenham where he didn't go a yard and jumped terribly. This year he comes into this race having finished 2^nd to Premier Magic, winning a point and then having a break before returning in the 4m race at Cheltenham again where he travelled and jumped like a dream the whole way round and always looked like the winner. Apparently the first time cheekpieces were to blame for his run their last year and he looked a different horse this time around. He has a great chance of reversing last year's form with Vaucelet. 

 

Not A Role Model - Has won his last two points but both on soft ground and didn't beat Back Bar by anywhere near as much as Clara Sorrento did. Would be surprising if he was good enough.

 

Secret Investor - Won 3 hunter chases this season and its hard to know how much he has achieved in doing so as he hasn't beaten a great deal. Dieu Vivant is a very beatable horse who he beat at Bangor. At Kelso he had a very simple task and then at Ludlow he beat Solomon Grey by 17L, but he would have needed the run. We would have learned more at Cheltenham but sadly he fell at the first. I won't be backing him, but he is clearly one of the possible winners.

 

Steely Addition - Just hasn't been in the same form as he was last season and the Perth form has been shown up big time in recent days. The Kelso win last year he only beat Graasten so I just can't see him being good enough.

 

Vaucelet - Didn't think he was overly impressive when winning at 4/9 last year, but he got the job done in the end beating Law Of Gold by 4L. He was ante-post favourite for Cheltenham on the back of that and was sent off favourite on the day, but he just didn't see it out when finishing 7^th beaten 10L. I suspect a lack of a recent run, he hadn't run since wining at Down Royal on Boxing Day, didn't really help, but the trainers horses all seemed to have an issue at the time. He then went to Punchestown where I thought he would win, but fair play to Its On The Line who just kept finding and finding and he couldn't get past. After that it was another match up against Billaway at Downpatrick, but he jumped terribly and I thought his jockey made a strange move to go and take up the running. That just seemed to leave him as a sitting duck for Billaway to go past and score comfortably. I wondered if he would come over after that, but I guess as its the end of the season they may as well take their chance and he is 2/2 here having won the 2021 John Corbet.

 

Wagner - Was outclassed at Aintree and will be the same story here.

 

Singapore Saga - A very likeable mare who has had a good season having won a hunter chase at Exeter when outstaying Viroflay on soft ground. She was put in her place by Shantou Flyer and was then only 3^rd in the mares race at Cheltenham and those two efforts suggest that this should be too tough for her.

 

Verdict - I am really confident that Law Of Gold can get his crown back off Vaucelet tonight. He was so good at Cheltenham and that should leave him spot on for this. Crucially he comes here on the back of a better run and he has had fewer runs so should be fresher. I would have him as favourite. Vaucelet just seems to be making heavy weather of things this season although he is a danger. I'm not sure what Secret Investor has achieved in his 3 wins this season, but again I respect his claims. If there is to be one at a bigger price hitting the frame, then the selections stablemate could be it as Clara Sorrento has shown good form in points this season.

 

7.35

Cat Tiger - Non runner for the 2nd year running.

 

I K Brunel - Had nothing go right at Cheltenham or Aintree where he pecked on landing at Cheltenham and unseated Izzie and then at Aintree he was brought down. Not surprisingly he won a match at 1/8 at a point 4 weeks ago which old us nothing, but the crucial piece of form in regards to this race is the win at Taunton where he beat Not That Fuisse. Now he got the best ride in the race, but even so he was well on top at the line so there was every chance he was the best horse in the race anyway. This test should be ideal for him and he is a leading contender.

 

Caryto Des Brosses - I bet connections were delighted that the handicapper decided to put him down 4lbs for his 2^nd at Cheltenham to Fier Jaguen. They had said that this race would be the target after that one and I have to say I think he looks the best handicapped horse in the race. He nearly won the big race here in 2019 when just pipped by Wonderful Charm and the year before he had won over this trip on this night in really good style. As evidenced by his 2^nd to Dandy Dan at Cheltenham last year he hasn't been the strongest stayer at further than 3m, but he's a real strong traveling horse whose best trip is probably this one. He won on his return this season at Southwell, but the ground went against him at Newbury. He dotted up at Garthorpe just before the Cheltenham 2^nd where he proved the drop down in trip to 2m wasn't a bad thing, he was just beaten by one of the best pointers around right now. If he doesn't go close to winning I will be shocked.

 

Zamparelli - Was 2^nd beaten a neck in this 2 years ago and then went one better last year when winning very easily and he has never been out of the first 2 now in 5 runs here. The big problem for him is that he has only managed to have two starts this year and he pulled up both times. A lack of a recent run is a big concern for me and there is no doubt that this race is much stronger than last years so he has a tough task for me.

 

Peacocks Secret - Trained by Dale Peters who rides Caryto Des Brosses which suggests to me he knows who has the better chance. Was 3^rd in this last year behind Zamparelli. Was a well beaten 3^rd behind Bennys King at Fakenham on Gold Cup day, but has won a point since at Higham although more needed in this for me. 

 

Sixteen Letters - I think he has the potential to be well handicapped as well, but I do worry slightly if he is quite as good as he was. To be fair he was never going to beat Famous Clermont first up on New Years Day and then he was a good 2^nd to Viroflay who is better than he has been able to show in his hunter chases to date. He then had a simple take to win a point before falling in the Aintree Foxhunters. What concerns me is his attitude in his two runs last month as he has hung both times. He won the first of them, but was 2^nd last time beaten 7L. On last season's form he would be thrown in off 110, but I wouldn't be so confident about that on this season's form.

 

Santon - I guess you could argue given how close he got to Time Leader at Leicester that he is well handicapped even allowing for the fact he is 5lbs out of the handicap, but I'm not so sure myself. He never got into the race at Cheltenham as he found it happening a bit too quick for him and the step up in trip will help, but I think Caryto Des Brosses will have the beating of him again at these weights.

 

Verdict - An unique contest on the calendar as it is the only handicap hunter chase of the season. As soon as they mentioned this race for Caryto Des Brosses after he was 2^nd at Cheltenham I thought it was the ideal race for him and I can see him making all. I will have a saver on Sixteen Letters as he could well be the next best handicapped horse in the race off a mark of 110. I K Brunel would be next best.

 

8.05

Raleagh Flora - She had a very simple task in the end at Fakenham last time as I'm not sure any of the others really ran their races in the ground, but even so she won by 49L and you can't knock a winning margin like that. She had disappointed in a handicap at Sedgefield off 95 in February, but that was her first run since June 21 where she had finished a 4L 2^nd to Kaproyale. Clearly the move to Andrew Pennock's yard has improved her though because the Restricted win at Godstone hinted that might be the case. The quicker ground shouldn't be an issue based on her efforts in 2021 and she's got a really strong chance in this.

 

Between You And Me - Took 6 goes at trying to win a Restricted and ten only won a slowly run 4 runner race. On his next start he was stuffed 35L in a 4 runner Intermediate. Would be a surprise winner for me.

 

Captain Biggles - Used to be trained by Olly Murphy and back in November 2021 finished a 0.5L 2^nd to Time Leader in a novice handicap hurdle when he was rated 118 and the winner just 94. He showed ability over hurdles, but was a bit disappointing on his one chase start to date last year at Uttoxeter. Olly recommended him to the Ellis' to send pointing and it has worked a treat for the horse. Initially connections were a bit disappointed he was beaten on his debut for them at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas, but he was beaten by a good horse and the 3^rd has done well since as well with none of the other 9 runners finishing the course. He duly won his maiden on his next start at Garthorpe by 10L, the following month he won his restricted by 6L at Brafield and then was well on top when winning a conditions race at Fakenham. He looks progressive and has done it all very easily so far. 

 

Fortunes Hill - A little bit of a dark horse because he has only run 3 times. He was a close 4^th on his debut in an Irish point last May and then he won a 3 runner restricted at Thorpe Lodge on Easter Monday. He won easily, but it was a very weak contest. He then ran in a conditions race at Charm Park and was beaten 7L into 2nd. It wasn't a strong race though and Pillowman who was 7L further back in 4^th was stuffed at Cartmel on Monday to give some idea as to what sort of form we are dealing with. Like I say though given he has only run 3 times there might be scope for better, but for me the form he's shown leaves him with a fair bit to find.

 

Marton Abbey - Somehow went off just 7/1 to beat Time Leader over course and distance and was duly stuffed 61L. He's been beaten in two restricted's since and they suggest he shouldn't be good enough to win this.

 

Minella Jab - Pulled up on his only start in Ireland in November 21, but has looked fairly promising in 3 starts so far. He won his maiden with ease over Easter and then won his restricted at the start of last month. Neither races were over strong and I would say his best piece of form was when he was a 3L 2^nd to a horse called Ed The Red 3 weeks ago because that horse has had a very good season. A bold showing wouldn't surprise.

 

Mountain Assault - Clearly had his problems as he wasn't seen in 2022 after he won his maiden in May 2021. On his return though he just won his restricted at Garthorpe in February and then took his Hunt Members at Dingley over Easter by 9L. He then went to Fakenham and was beaten 10L by Captain Buggles after getting outpaced and given this race is over shorter round a sharp track as well it is hard to see how he can reverse that form.

 

Ultra Viers - Ran a couple of fair races in two hunter chases in February at Leicester when 4^th behind Time Leader and then 2^nd behind Santon. Was beaten a head on his next start at Kimble and then finally managed to break his maiden when winning by a neck at Garthorpe. He was beaten 7L in his first restricted at Edgcote 3 weeks ago by a horse who Captain Buggles beat 10L earlier in the season, but he helped set a pretty fast gallop with another horse and they had quite a big lead at one stage. The fact he still managed to keep going for 2^nd deserves a bit of credit. He can be keen and I will imagine he will make the running here and could give it a bold showing from the front.

 

Urban Gift - Won a maiden at Didmarton and then a restricted at Edgcote, but neither were very good contests and he was beaten in an intermediate last month. I suspect he wont be good enough.

 

Runwiththetide - Was really struggling under rules for Dan Skelton, but looks a changed horse for Kelly Morgan in her two starts pointing winning both in March over 2m4f and on Easter Monday over 3m. There was nothing overly impressive about those performances, but she clearly has improved. She then went to Cheltenham for the Intermediate Final and briefly threatened to get involved, but in the end pulled up before 2 out. I'd imagine this test will suit better and has a chance here.

 

Verdict - Not a race I want to get as heavily involved in as others on the card. I will have a small bet on Runwiththetide as I think she is capable of better than she was able to show at Cheltenham. Minella Jab could go well and I can see Ultra Viers running well from the front, but I suspect one of the front two in the betting will land the spoils and I just favour Captain Biggles out of the two. He was capable of a fair level of form over hurdles in the past and looks as if he's improved on that this season. Raleagh Flora might have been a bit flattered by the winning margin at Fakenham, but clearly it would be no shock if she won.

 

8.40

Achtung Baby - Was 3^rd in a point bumper at Bangor in March when after being held up in last for half the trip he then moved forward and was 2^nd with a couple of furlongs left before finishing 3rd. He was 4L behind Thank You Ma'am who finished 3^rd in the Exeter contest. That would suggest to me that he won't be good enough for this and he showed little in a 2m4f maiden over Easter when pulling up.

 

Old Guard - Won a point bumper at Bonvilston 3 weeks ago over 1m6f and still looked a bit green so he should come on again for the experience. Hard to know what he has beaten as they were mainly all newcomers, but has an obvious chance.

 

Supreme Johnson - Was beaten 90L in the Exeter version and pulled up twice back in points as well as 3^rd after that. Then went to the Aintree version and he ran much better to finish 4^th especially as he got hampered and slipped. If he can run to that level again then he has a chance in this. Did wear a first time tongue-tie which must have helped.

 

Fountainspinklady - Was a well beaten 5^th in point bumper last April, but showed the benefit of that experience when winning a point bumper at Milborne St Andrew just under a year later. She showed a nice turn of foot to go on and score from Blazing Litten who was beaten 14L into 4^th in the Exeter one of these. The winning time was 4 seconds quicker than the other division and she clearly has a chance.

 

Penniless - Won her first 2 starts over here at Charing and Parham, but don't think either were strong races and the 2^nd ran out at 2 out in the latter win and it would have been a good race between the 2. The winning time that day was very slow and she wasn't great at High Easter the next time. She was last turning for home at Aintree, but she did stay on to finish 6^th about 4L behind Supreme Johnson. Clearly enjoyed the long straight at Aintree so might struggle here if running in the same style.

 

Musique De Fee - Finished 2^nd in a point bumper at the start of April. The winner was unsold at £9k at the sales after that which doesn't say much, but the 3^rd who was 7L behind her has run OK in a Fontwell bumper since which helps add a bit of substance to the form. She looked very green in the finish and didn't really seem to know what to do as she had ample chance to go past the winner. The trainer won this race last year, but I suspect this one may need a bit more time.

 

Theweddingcanwait - Got very tired on debut in a 2m4f point at Bonvilston a month ago and ended up being beaten 50L in 3rd. Did travel quite well into the race so this lesser test might suit better, but still hard to see him winning this.

 

Verdict - Paul Nicholls has bred Old Guard and it was he who suggested they go down the pointing bumper route. I would imagine he will be going back to Paul after this and he could have the beating of these

[Alastair]

Darran,

Thank you for this. I have to confess I haven't followed this aspect of racing for many years now although I remember the Mackenzie and Selby annuals and Hunterchase ratings. Hope this isn't a cheeky question but as a matter of interest have your tips been profitable this year ?