NFL Wk .2.

[TazaD]

2-2 (+0.4) KC @ Oaktown under 53 (2.05) While I'm not falling completely for this 'brilliant' new KC defense, I think it quite clearly has improved. They also seem to be becoming more of a running offense as Green gets back to 100%...and if Roaf doesn't play it will hurt Holmes' production. I know pre-season is just that, but in 5 games so far this season, Oakland have scored 13, 17, 16, 13 and 20. I know recent history has seen some points b/w these teams, but I think there's too many points on offer in this one. Cleveland @ GB under 41 (1.93) The 2 worst teams in the NFL slugging away at it? Pretty tough to see too many scores here. GB just look awful offensively, and now Walker out makes them even worse. They'll be looking for Green to carry them this week, but Cleveland were ok against the run last week....while they allowed about 5ypc, there was no big plays, the longest they allowed was 13 yards. The GB defense was called for a lot of penalties last week, but they'll have less trouble against this Cleveland unit, surely! Jets -6 (1.93) Over-reaction central!...and I've got a trend to prove it!... League: 4-15-1 (Av. loss 13.0) away 3+ dog, off 21+ ats win as home 3+ dog. [Mia] ...That includes Jets 41-14 Miami last season, when Miami were coming off a big win as home dog v. the Rams. Miami did all of their damage in the 2nd half when the Denver D was drained from the heat/humidity....Plus, it was against Denver who just can't seem to beat the 'Phins. Can't see them having the same success on the road v. a smarting Jets team. and..... Denver -3 (2.12) League: 2-10-2 (Av. loss 6.9) away 3- dog, off 7+ ats loss as home 3+ fav, if opp off 14+ ats loss. [sD] Like I said, I think Denver's loss was reasonably explainable, and now they're only laying a FG at home v. a team that they are 3-0-1 last 4 home meetings against, with wins of 10, 17, 29 and 10. Anderson out won't be a huge loss with Bell (and Dayne) to cover...In fact in last seasons win, Denver rushed for just 30 yards anyway! Dallas showed that the SD pass D is still not great, so expecting Plummer to have a bit more success this week! Denver are 9-2 inside the Div in the last 3 years, so I'm expecting a bounce back win here. TB -2.5 (1.98) League: 20-11-1 (Av. win 5.4) home 3- fav, off 10+ SU win as away 7- dog. [TB] 8-2-1 (Av. win 5.9) if total <37 Like Tampa here by less than a FG. They allowed Minni just 33 rushing yards in 15 attempts last week...14 in 12 if you take out Culpepper! If they can do the same against Buffalo and force Losman to throw then I like their chances. Buffalo only scored 1 TD against a poor travelling Houston last week, so I can't see them scoring much this week. If Tampa can keep the TO's down, they should win this game. Also like the Texan's, but will sit back and (hopefully!) watch the line rise to 6.5 or even 7??

[Valiant23]

Re: NFL Wk .2. Last week-2/2 on here, lucky 4/10 on my systems thread. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=18892 *gulp* TazaD-I like the look of Jags/Colts under 46 (1.90) at Bet365. Last 3 years the total has been 51, 41, 51, but I think we'll see Colts scoring less points this year- a more conservative offence perhaps. Shoot this down before the weekend with any thoughts. Please! KC v OakLAND ;) Despite the agonies of betting against my team, as well as the under I have to say the Chiefs will win on Sunday. We will see on Sunday if Oakland have improved against the run, but I'm not sure there is enough to stop Holmes. So I think -1 point is worth taking. Thoughts? I also liked the look of Pittsburgh(-6)-although TazaD's comments at the end has made me pause. If TazaD can put me off the Steelers, I'll jump on the Jets and Denvers' spreads. Point taken btw ;)