Racing chat -Saturday 8th April

[richard-westwood]

3.00 muss Scottish sprint Cup 

Zarzyni   8.6 6/1 

Burning cash  8.4  20/1 

Vintage clarets   8.0 

It came from dark   8.0 

Seems a bit of value in top 2 here ....both are coming off long layoffs but both ran well first time up last season so I'll roll the dice ...5pt ew top 2 

[richard-westwood]

225 muss 

Abduction   8.4 7/1 

Fools rush in   8.4 16/1 

Autumn festival   8.2 

Gweedore     8.2 

Very close,at top here between these 4 ...any one of them could realistically win but top 2 are just edging it in value dept so I'll try 5pt ew top 2 and hope fools causes a,shock 

[kensland]

Two Osin Murphy's mounts and two A. Balding enteries

Lucky 15.

1.50. Muss. Lion of War        9/2

3.00. Muss. Came from the Dark       11/2

3.35. Muss.Spirit Mixer                  4/1

6.00. Wolv. Torre De Oro          sp

stk. 7.50 the           rtn. N/A.

Good luck all. 

Edited April 8, 2023 by kensland

[Darran]

Big day of racing in Australia with Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick and one of the leading fancies for the Melbourne Cup returns at Sandown. Plenty of ex Europeans as well as current Europeans are in action as well.

 

Randwick R7 

The Syndey Cup is a G1 over 3200m and the interesting thing to note is that 20 of the last 22 winners have carried 55.5kg or less to victory. It would be a huge effort if last year's Melbourne Cup winner Gold Trip were to land this carrying 59.5kg, but he clearly deserves it given his class. He ran a nice prep race for this to be fair last time and we know the trip and ground will be fine. I'm not sure he's handicapped to win, but I can certainly see him running well and possibly hitting the frame. Him being in the race though means all the others apart from Knights Order have to carry 55kg or less. His prep run came in the Tancred and that race was won in good style by Araphao who has a very nice weight here given the Tancred was WFA and he gets plenty of weight from Gold Trip who he beat. He was only 11^th in the Melbourne Cup at huge odds, but he was settled right out at the back and didn't really have a hope from there. He enjoys a wet track and he has to be a player. 

 

Joeseph O'Brien runs two here, but clear preference is for Cleveland who ran a huge race to finish 5^th in the Tancred on his first start in Australia. He was trained by his father when winning the Chester Cup last May and he then ran a cracking race to finish 2^nd at Royal Ascot. It's staggering how he has got in on such a low weight and whilst the draw of 17 isn't ideal he does have Kerrin McEvoy on top which is a big tick. He won his maiden on heavy ground at the Curragh so there are no worries on that front and he has to have a big chance if he backs up his Tancred run.

 

King Frankel was 3^rd in the Tancred and got racing plenty soon enough so it was a big run. It is no surprise he is near the head of the market on the back of that effort. 

 

A few of these ran last week over 2600m here and I think High Emocean can be the best of them here. She was still in last passing the 600m marker and hit the line very strongly to end up finishing 4th. She was 3^rd in the Melbourne Cup last year and that run last week was her best run of the prep so far. We know she handles quick backups as she won the Bendigo Cup 6 days before the Melbourne Cup and she has won twice on heavy ground as it was last weekend. She doesn't have a great draw, but surely must be capable of going close if overcoming that.

 

Cleveland does look the one they have to beat for me as he looks very well handicapped on his UK and Irish form and ran a perfect prep for this in the Tancred. I will also be backing the winner that day Arapaho who also looks like he could be well handicapped on the back of that effort. Finally High Emocean is the other one I will be backed. She ran a huge race last week and can go close on the 7 day back up just as she did at Flemington in November.

 

Cleveland @ 7/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Unibet

Arapaho e/w @ 12/1 with William Hill

High Emocean e/w @ 111 with William Hill and Unibet

 

Randwick R8

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes is a G1 over 2000m and after William Haggas won it a couple of times with Addeybb he has sent Dubai Honour down to try and win it for a 3^rd time. Addeybb was going up against Australia's best WFA horse at the time in Verry Elleegant and this year Dubai Honour is going up against the current best Australia has to offer in Anamoe. Anamoe has done me a few favours including in the Cox Plate last year where he won on a Heavy 8 track and he is likely to face similar conditions here if not worse. As much as I really like him though I do think Dubai Honour can beat him. I don't think he was at his best last summer and his trainer has basically said as much, but he knows the type of horse to send for The Championships and he looks to have got it spot on again with Dubai Honour because he was so impressive when winning the Ranvet a couple of weeks ago. He showed a superb turn of foot to put the race to bed and he beat the 2^nd Montefilia by further than Anamoe has beaten him by. With him due to be even better suited by the testing ground on Saturday than the Good 4 ground he had in the Ranvet I think Anamoe will be doing very well to beat him. You always have to respect Japanese horses on the world stage and Unicorn Lion represents them here, but he looks far from being one of their best and I'd be a bit disappointed if he won this. Alenquer is a former stablemate of the favourite and won the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last year. He then struggled a bit in top G1 events although the 9^th in the Arc wasn't a bad effort. He was last in the All Star Mile on his first start in Australia, but I suspect he is better than that and could put in an improved showing. Ultimately though I think Dubai Honour is a fair bet to get the better of Anamoe and the rest.

 

Dubai Honour @ 11/8 with William Hill

 

Randwick R9

The final G1 on the card is the Queen Of The Turf over 1600m and it sees the Australian debut of Alcohol Free and if she is ready 1^st up I think she will be very hard to beat here. Her form looks to be above the form of her rivals here and she is proven on heavy ground having won the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2021 when it was really heavy. So 1600m in heavy ground should hold no fears, but as she showed when landing the July Cup last year, she clearly has plenty of pace as well. She has trialled well so hopefully she is ready to go and stall 2 should be helpful as well. Hope In Your Heart looks to be the main danger based on her run in the Doncaster Mile last week. She was in last place for most of the way and had only moved to 15^th passing the 400m yet was 4^th at the line and it was a huge run. If she can back that up then she won't be far away.

 

Alcohol Free @ 9/4 with William Hill

 

Sandown R8

The Easter Cup is a G3 contest over 2100m and the track is currently a Good 4 with rain forecast. There are some ex British and Irish horses in this and it is the ex Joseph O'Brien trained White Marlin which is the one I like here. He won a couple of races at Dundalk before heading to Australia and he was really impressive in racking up 3 wins at Rosehill, Caulfield and Flemington over distances ranging from 1800m - 2800m. That Flemington win was on Melbourne Cup day and I was so impressed with his performance in that contest that I backed him for this year's Melbourne Cup on the back of it. He wont mind what the weather does given it was a Heavy 8 at Caulfield and it was a Good 4 when he won at Rosehill. If he comes back this prep in the same form he was in on his last one then I think he is going to be hard to beat here with only 54kg on his back. The obvious danger looks to be Right You Are who missed the Australian Cup a couple of weeks ago for this. He has won 9 of his 20 starts including his last 5 and was impressive at Flemington last time. Ex Japanese Sparkle is also respected as she has won her last two races both at Flemington and there was plenty to like about how she won last time. This is tougher and she is an unknown on wet ground, but looks to be improving. It wouldn't be a disaster Melbourne Cup wise if White Marlin was beaten here, but it does look a great opportunity for him.

 

White Marlin @ 7/4 with William Hill and Unibet

[Tedthewolf]

 

0.15 e/w L15 bog = 4.5pts = Return 2.51

 

 

 

Sirobbie22/1

Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5

15:15 Haydock - Paying 5 Places instead of 4

 

 

 

D'jango17/2

Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3

15:50 Haydock

 

 

 

Enqarde6/1

Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4

14:40 Haydock - Paying 4 Places instead of 3

 

 

 

 

Castel Gandolfo14/1

Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4

13:30 Haydock - Paying 4 Places instead of 3

 

 

Edited April 8, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[pa4410]

Mussleburgh 

1:50 - Lion Of War  7/2

2:25 - Gweedore   7/1

3:00 - Matice 11/1

4:45 - Primo's Comet  17/2

 

Haydock 

1:30 - Whizz Kid 10/1

2:40 - Jeffery's Cross 9/2

3:15 - Farmers Gamble  9/2

3:50 - D'jango 8/1

[calva decoy]

150 Muss - LION OF WAR 7/2 Bet365  3rd 👎

445 Muss - BALLYARE 20/1 eway Bet365 ( 5 places ) still running 👎

Edited April 8, 2023 by calva decoy

[SirRavenous]

1440 Haydock

Jeffreys Cross - 9/2

1500 Musselburgh

The Bell Conductor - 12/1

1535 Musselburgh

Wise Eagle - 9/1

1550 Haydock

Ballinslea Bridge - 10/1

[The Equaliser]

I can't find any of @The Brigadier's tips today, not on here or the home page of PL.  Very disappointing 😢

I've found his Nap on the SL Naps table = 2.25 Muss The Gatekeeper.

For another reason I will be backing Autumn Festival but good luck to The Gatekeeper (reminds me of Ghostbusters)

Edited April 8, 2023 by The Equaliser

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

I can't find any of @The Brigadier's tips today, not on here or the home page of PL.  Very disappointing 😢

I've found his Nap on the SL Naps table = 2.25 Muss The Gatekeeper.

For another reason I will be backing Autumn Festival but good luck to The Gatekeeper (reminds me of Ghostbusters)

You can always post your own tips 😉 far more gratifying than copying someone else's , imo but hey , we're all different , good luck nonetheless 👍

[The Equaliser]

1 minute ago, calva decoy said:

You can always post your own tips 😉 far more gratifying than copying someone else's , imo but hey , we're all different , good luck nonetheless 👍

I will be.  I hope that @The Brigadieris OK? I think that he has many followers and it's a pity that the tips don't even show on the PL home page.  I don't know what's gone wrong but it needs sorting out soon other regular viewers will start to look elsewhere

[The Equaliser]

L15

1.50 Muss Dumfries 11/4

2.25 Muss Autumn Festival 17/2

3.15 Hd Itso Fury 7/2

3.30 Cork Wadao 7/1

1 x .10 win L15 = 1.50 poss ret 246.78

Hopefully back with some win bets but up against it timewise atm

Ran out of time

Edited April 8, 2023 by The Equaliser

[Zilzalian]

21 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I will be.  I hope that @The Brigadieris OK? I think that he has many followers and it's a pity that the tips don't even show on the PL home page.  I don't know what's gone wrong but it needs sorting out soon other regular viewers will start to look elsewhere

Other "regular viewers" are i guess not that fickle and can cope with a glitch or two.

[The Equaliser]

7 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Other "regular viewers" are i guess not that fickle and can cope with a glitch or two.

What a relief 🙂

[richard-westwood]

Useless today .....horses are just not fit ....winner in that race was fit off all weather and trounced them ....think I need to wait til they've had a run 

[calva decoy]

36 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Useless today .....horses are just not fit ....winner in that race was fit off all weather and trounced them ....think I need to wait til they've had a run 

Always a weird one start of the flat horses off 6 months v ones who've ran on the a/w hard to get an angle on unfortunately .

[Zilzalian]

15 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Always a weird one start of the flat horses off 6 months v ones who've ran on the a/w hard to get an angle on unfortunately .

Always remember Jack Berry saying it pisses him off that he gets his horses fit and they beat a field of unfit ones by 6L ish and the handicapper murders his horse ignoring the fact that the others were "not off" adding by June his horses are mostly badly handicapped. Great trainer Jack and a lovely man who had time for everyone.

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

L15

1.50 Muss Dumfries 11/4

2.25 Muss Autumn Festival 17/2

3.15 Hd Itso Fury 7/2

3.30 Cork Wadao 7/1

1 x .10 win L15 = 1.50 poss ret 246.78

Hopefully back with some win bets but up against it timewise atm

Ran out of time

No luck with that.  Stupid me for not backing Billy the kid on Gweedore, I'm too easily distracted

5.05 Fairy Magnor Glory 1 pt ew at 12/1

5.10 N.Abb Shaws Cross 1.50 win at 6/1

7.00 Wolves Okeanos 3 pts win at 4.70 (My Pl Nap)

Total stakes today = 12.50

-------------------------------------------------------------

Magnor Glory placed at 22/1 BOG and Okeanos wins = +6.78 profit on the day MTD -32.97 YTD -82.79. 

 

Edited April 8, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Wolverhampton 8.00

FRISTEL

[The Brigadier]

20 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I will be.  I hope that @The Brigadieris OK? I think that he has many followers and it's a pity that the tips don't even show on the PL home page.  I don't know what's gone wrong but it needs sorting out soon other regular viewers will start to look elsewhere

Hi @EQUALISER, All good thanks. There's been a few gremlins with my daily tips not appearing till the middle of the night rather than the usual 7.00. Were working hard to sort this out and should be back to normal soon. Mondays thoughts/analysis up now on the forum for Monday.