Racing Chat - Friday 3rd March

[Darran]

Beneficio is back out in the morning in R2 at Pakenham which is due off at 7.45am. I will do my usual preview of her race, although I did miss out her previous run as I just didn't have the time to do it and she managed to come 2nd at Ballarat a couple of weeks ago.

Winsum - His only previous start at this level he won over 1000m at Cranbourne back in March 2021 so done all his running in a higher level ever since and did win a BM78 over course and distance in December 2021. You have to say though that on the whole he has been a bit disappointing since then and he was last at Moonee Valley 5 weeks ago over 1200m. For all that he has won over course and distance and he is down in grade I still find it hard to back him on the back of that run and his other run so far this prep.

Dollar Chaser - Won in back-to-back starts at Cranbourne and Mornington last April in a maiden and a BM58. He then went up to a BM64 at Cranbourne and only beat one home where his jockey reported that he never travelled and that he might want a step up in distance. He then had a spell before coming back in October when he was a well beaten 8th at Mornington, but he was found to have an issue that day so you can excuse that effort. He had a jump out last month where he went OK. He has in theory got a good draw in 1 and he did make the running when he won his two races, but in his last two races he has drifted back into midfield so hard to know what he will do here. On balance I think he can be opposed.

Tom The Star - Had been running solidly at a lower level including winning at Colac in December. His last start he stepped up into this grade at Moonee Valley over 955m and ran well to finish 4th. He is another possible front runner as he has in the past although he had to go back into midfield last time. A top 3 place is certainly possible as he does always tend to run his race, but getting his head in front is a different matter.

Zourata - He was the original favourite for this when betting opened, but he has drifted out slightly. He has had only had two starts and he won on debut when only having 3 rivals to beat before finishing last at Moonee Valley where he failed to respond for pressure and was found to have a slow recovery after the race. He's won a couple of jump outs at Flemington last month which bodes well, but on balance of form he his price is on the short side for me and it is more based on potential rather than facts.

Beneficio - She has been backed into favouritisim at the time of writing. She hasn't had a great deal of luck so far this prep as she has had some awful draws, a soft track over this course and distance which she didn't like and then when it appeared she had a great chance of winning a race at Cranbourne the meeting was called off. She has been given another shocking draw here as she is in 8, but at Pakenham you do only have half a turn so unless the rail is where you need to be it isn't a complete disaster. She will get a good track and this could be her chance to show her true form over 1000m. She was able to break well again last time and got a clear lead at Ballarat and kept going to finish 2nd, but the winner was too good and looks a progressive horse. In a race like this she should be fighting out the finish.

Pretty Panda - Has done her winning in NSW including last time at Wagga and when she runs in Victoria she runs no more than OK without winning. Tends to front run so does have a good draw in 3, but the one time she ran in this grade she finished last so the question is if she will be good enough to win.

Mystery Eclipse - Won a 0-64 over this trip at Mornington in November in good style and was beaten just 0.4L in 3rd at Kyneton over 1100m on her next start. She was disappointing last time though at Mornington and the jockey told the stewards that she might be better on a softer surface. That is a concern here although she did win her maiden on a Good 4. Has a chance if she copes with the ground.

Mastmira - Won a maiden on her 2nd start here over 1200m, but it has been a massive struggle for her ever since and is hard to fancy.

Copthorne - Has been in good form at the picnics (basically the equivalent to point-to-points over here but on the flat obviously) winning his last two, but this will be much tougher than those races and he makes no appeal.

Verdict - I think Beneficio has got as good a chance as anything here as I suspect she is better than the other front runners in the field and she does keep trying which is important and I can understand why she heads the market there are some that wouldn't surprise if they won, but e/w support for Tom The Star might be a winning bet given how consistent he is and Mystery Eclipse can also go well if the ground isn't too quick for him.

Beneficio @ 14/5 with Bet365

[kensland]

Newcastle. 

Single. 

6.15. Barney Bay          7/1

stk 5.00.       rtn     40.00

Double. 

2.00. Donc. Taste of Fear       11/4       unpl

4.40. Ling. Carzola                    13/8      5/1      1st 

singles & double. 

stk. 6.00.       rtn.  32.44.

Good luck all. 

Edited March 3, 2023 by kensland