Racing Chat - Friday 3rd March

[Darran]

Beneficio is back out in the morning in R2 at Pakenham which is due off at 7.45am. I will do my usual preview of her race, although I did miss out her previous run as I just didn't have the time to do it and she managed to come 2nd at Ballarat a couple of weeks ago.

Winsum - His only previous start at this level he won over 1000m at Cranbourne back in March 2021 so done all his running in a higher level ever since and did win a BM78 over course and distance in December 2021. You have to say though that on the whole he has been a bit disappointing since then and he was last at Moonee Valley 5 weeks ago over 1200m. For all that he has won over course and distance and he is down in grade I still find it hard to back him on the back of that run and his other run so far this prep.

Dollar Chaser - Won in back-to-back starts at Cranbourne and Mornington last April in a maiden and a BM58. He then went up to a BM64 at Cranbourne and only beat one home where his jockey reported that he never travelled and that he might want a step up in distance. He then had a spell before coming back in October when he was a well beaten 8th at Mornington, but he was found to have an issue that day so you can excuse that effort. He had a jump out last month where he went OK. He has in theory got a good draw in 1 and he did make the running when he won his two races, but in his last two races he has drifted back into midfield so hard to know what he will do here. On balance I think he can be opposed.

Tom The Star - Had been running solidly at a lower level including winning at Colac in December. His last start he stepped up into this grade at Moonee Valley over 955m and ran well to finish 4th. He is another possible front runner as he has in the past although he had to go back into midfield last time. A top 3 place is certainly possible as he does always tend to run his race, but getting his head in front is a different matter.

Zourata - He was the original favourite for this when betting opened, but he has drifted out slightly. He has had only had two starts and he won on debut when only having 3 rivals to beat before finishing last at Moonee Valley where he failed to respond for pressure and was found to have a slow recovery after the race. He's won a couple of jump outs at Flemington last month which bodes well, but on balance of form he his price is on the short side for me and it is more based on potential rather than facts.

Beneficio - She has been backed into favouritisim at the time of writing. She hasn't had a great deal of luck so far this prep as she has had some awful draws, a soft track over this course and distance which she didn't like and then when it appeared she had a great chance of winning a race at Cranbourne the meeting was called off. She has been given another shocking draw here as she is in 8, but at Pakenham you do only have half a turn so unless the rail is where you need to be it isn't a complete disaster. She will get a good track and this could be her chance to show her true form over 1000m. She was able to break well again last time and got a clear lead at Ballarat and kept going to finish 2nd, but the winner was too good and looks a progressive horse. In a race like this she should be fighting out the finish.

Pretty Panda - Has done her winning in NSW including last time at Wagga and when she runs in Victoria she runs no more than OK without winning. Tends to front run so does have a good draw in 3, but the one time she ran in this grade she finished last so the question is if she will be good enough to win.

Mystery Eclipse - Won a 0-64 over this trip at Mornington in November in good style and was beaten just 0.4L in 3rd at Kyneton over 1100m on her next start. She was disappointing last time though at Mornington and the jockey told the stewards that she might be better on a softer surface. That is a concern here although she did win her maiden on a Good 4. Has a chance if she copes with the ground.

Mastmira - Won a maiden on her 2nd start here over 1200m, but it has been a massive struggle for her ever since and is hard to fancy.

Copthorne - Has been in good form at the picnics (basically the equivalent to point-to-points over here but on the flat obviously) winning his last two, but this will be much tougher than those races and he makes no appeal.

Verdict - I think Beneficio has got as good a chance as anything here as I suspect she is better than the other front runners in the field and she does keep trying which is important and I can understand why she heads the market there are some that wouldn't surprise if they won, but e/w support for Tom The Star might be a winning bet given how consistent he is and Mystery Eclipse can also go well if the ground isn't too quick for him.

Beneficio @ 14/5 with Bet365

[kensland]

Newcastle. 

Single. 

6.15. Barney Bay          7/1

stk 5.00.       rtn     40.00

Double. 

2.00. Donc. Taste of Fear       11/4       unpl

4.40. Ling. Carzola                    13/8      5/1      1st 

singles & double. 

stk. 6.00.       rtn.  32.44.

Good luck all. 

Edited March 3, 2023 by kensland

[harry_rag]

@Darran Without wishing to come over all Flavor Flav I don’t think you know what time it is, or what month at least! The thread title could do with an edit.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Without wishing to come over all Flavor Flav I don’t think you know what time it is, or what month at least! The thread title could do with an edit.

Well spotted. Now changed.

[kensland]

Lingfield. 

3.35. Urban Outlook        7/1      1st 

stk. 5.00.      rtn. 40.00.

Good luck all. 

Edited March 3, 2023 by kensland

[LEE-GRAYS]

P/l -£5.70

lucky 15 outsiders

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

One for the Irish to go with the 2 lucky 15 above 

out £12.20 in 

[The Equaliser]

2.00 Don My Bad Lucy 1 pt win at 3/1

2.50 Nb Highland Frolic 0.50 ew at 14/1

4.20 Don Twotwothree 1 pt win at 5.4

Total points = 3 today so far

-------------------------------------------------

No winners today so far.

8.00 Dun Rocky Dreams 0.50 ew at 10/1 with Betfred 4TBP

Total stakes = 4 today.

The best I could manage today was one second and that was on a win bet.  Hence, - 4 pts.  MTD +2.60 and YTD -92.67

I hope that Saturday brings with it some consolation.  Looking forward to doing a Lucky 15.

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Trotter]

Ling 1.50 - Originally - win at 9/2 bet365

First run in a handicap.

Finished 4th in his last novice race and the first and second have both won next time out

To be fair there are a couple of other unexposed types in the field including the fairly short priced favourite, Deed Pole. He's aleady had a handicap outing in a worse race and couldn't win it ...... I'm hoping the handicapper has him about right whereas my selection might have something in hand based on his novice form

[Trotter]

Ling 4.40 - Carzola - win at 4/1 bet365

Another small field handicap with a couple of unexposed lightly raced types

The outsider, Mukha Magic, is a solid yardtick who has the best form and is 12/1 so I wouldn't put anyone off having a punt on him to show the younger horses how it's done

The favourite, Bashful Boy, is difficult to oppose having won over CD very easily a few days ago ....... but he is basically a hurdler these days and that race was run at hurdle pace..... and he is 7 years old. So I'm hoping one of the younger horses might just have too much for him

My selection was a running on second over 13 furlongs last time and steps up in trip (and has my best 2 speed figures)

[Bang on]

Have a shortlist of 10 from the 28 races today, won't back them all, but have backed these.

1.50 Ling - Deed Pole - 11/10 - 1pt

5.05 Newb - Anti Bridgie - 4/1 - 1pt

----------------

0.5pt EW double

2.25 Ling - First Company - 7/2 (1/5th 3 places)

8.15 Newc - Gunnerside - 9/4 (1/5th 3 places)

3pts staked

[MCLARKE]

NH selection

Doncaster 3.45

FAIRY GEM 

[Trotter]

4 hours ago, Trotter said:

Ling 1.50 - Originally - win at 9/2 bet365

4 hours ago, Trotter said:

Ling 4.40 - Carzola - win at 4/1 bet365

 

Oh well not too disappointing ....... my first one beaten a short head but did beat the short priced favourite into 3rd and my second one won at 5/1 beating trhe odds on favourite in that race

Obviously I put the wrong one in the naps comp .......... sods law

[LEE-GRAYS]

10 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

One for the Irish to go with the 2 lucky 15 above 

out £12.20 in £4.70

Not good day after great start 

-£13.50 25th feb 2023