Racing Chat - Thursday 5th January

[Darran]

My Australian horse Beneficio is back out tomorrow morning (6am) in Race 8 at Benalla. As usual I will preview the race.

Prairie Fire - Has been running at Alice Springs of late and has moved to a Victorian based trainer. The quality of racing wouldn't be the strongest there and it would suggest he's going to struggle off top weight here.

Burning The Clock - Won a 0-58 and a BM58 in September and October last year and then for some reason connections ran him in a Listed race during the Melbourne Cup Carnival. That is basically the equivalent of a horse winning a Class 6 handicap here and then going to for a Listed Race at Royal Ascot. Still he did actually finish 8th of 11 so it wasn't a bad effort. He then went into BM64 level (same as this race) and only beat one home at Tatura. He's never won at this level before and it would be a surprise if he won this.

Red Octane - Likes to try and race on the speed although is drawn wide here in 12. Won 4 back in May at this level over 1200m although was poor next time. Then had a spell before only beating one home at Wangaratta last month. That was over 1000m and then stepped up to 1170m at the same track 3 weeks later and was a decent 3rd. If improving for that run wouldn't have an e/w chance in this.

Missed The Mark - Was only a 4 runner BM58 he won at Warracknabeal in October and was then a well beaten 5th in a 0-64 at Mornington. Is another who might try and front run and another one who has a double figure draw. Overall form looks like he wouldn't be good enough for this.

Beneficio - The people who run the syndicate are very confident that she can win this. She got a couple of nasty cuts when getting loose during a bit of work which is why she has been off since October. I don't think things have gone her way in her last two races and this is certainly weaker than both those contests. She impressed me in a jump out at Cranbourne 3 weeks ago and she does have a great 1st up record so it could well be 1st up is the time to catch her. The trainer is very happy with her and the yard have been firing in the winners in the last couple of weeks so that is another plus. The big negative though is the draw as she will be on the wide outside. Hopefully she will break as fast as she usually does and she can get ahead of the fellow front runners on her inside. I think there is a fair chance she can do that and if she does it is then just a case of if she can stay there in ahead of the finishers. 

Excel And Fly - Had to race wide with no cover at Werribee 1st up a month ago, but was only just caught late on by Head First to finish 3rd by 0.2L. Only had 5 starts and that race was the same level as this so another one with a good chance here.

Proud Conquest - Only had 4 starts and won on debut at Donald in May before being sent off a short price favourite for a handicap at Caulfield. He was very keen and caught wide and only beat one horse home. The problem is it has been a similar story in lesser races at Sandown and Kyneton so far this prep. I would say he should get cover from barrier 5, but he had 3 last time and still ended up wide with no cover. If he went and won it wouldn't surprise, but I can't be backing him until he shows more.

Turoar - Won his maiden on start number 8 at Wangaratta in December 21 but was then last in a BM64 over the same course and distance 3 weeks later. Only had one jump out a couple of weeks ago since so likely to need this.

Media Empire - Has yet to be placed at this level and would need to step up on his 1st up effort at Wangaratta a couple of weeks ago.

The Hay Flyer - Didn't show too much in her 1st two starts and then won on start 3 at Kyneton in May. Was well beaten in a BM58 at Kilmore the same month so would need to improve on that. She has won her last couple of jumpouts at Flemington so maybe she has improved again, but she needs to have done.

Head First - She has got in as a reserve and is set to go off favourite. She has been on the go since September,  but has been running pretty well on the whole and won at Werribee in BM64 company two starts back just getting up to beat Excel And Fly. Was 3rd over the same course and distance a couple of weeks later where I don't think she was given the best of rides as for me she needlessly got into a speed dual and didn't have much left late on. Drawn in 10, but clearly a leading contender.

Verdict - For me the ones to focus on are Red Octane, Beneficio, Excel And Fly and Head First. I will be backing Beneficio. Like I say the confidence is very high in the camp that she can win this and she certainly has the ability to do so. For me it will be the draw that beats her, but hopefully she can overcome that. I will also be backing Excel And Fly who should be able to get a better run than he did last time when just being caught by Head First. He should be fitter after that run as well and he can reverse the form with Head First if she does get a run.

Beneficio @ 4/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

Excel And Fly @ 4/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair

[kensland]

Double. 

3.15. Wolv. Hammy End       6/1      unpl

2.30. Ffos. Word Has it         3/1      unpl

singles & double. 

Good luck 

Edited January 5, 2023 by kensland