Racing Chat - Melbourne Cup (4am Tuesday)

[Darran]

As usual I will be staying all night to watch the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday morning. You will be able to watch the action on Sky Sports Racing. I don't think it is an overly strong race and my thinking is it is even weaker than last year's race. The front two in the betting both come from the UK so whilst they are the only 2 still trained here there is a very strong chance the Cup will be coming back to the UK. I have had a look at every horse in the field and come up with my idea of the first 4. 

Gold Trip - Ex-French and his only win remains a G2 in France, but he has run some really good races in defeat in Australia. He was 5^th in Turnbull which was solid and then he was just nabbed on the line by Durston in the Caulfield Cup. A week later he was 9^th in the Cox Plate which doesn't look great on paper, but he had little room in the final 200m and he was better than the finishing position that day. It's pretty tough to take in all 3 of the big ones and he's unproven past 2400m. The other concern is top weights do not have a good record in the Melbourne Cup, but he does enjoy wet ground so that side of things is ideal for him. I can see him running well again without winning.

 

Duais - Hasn't been running as well as she had in the Autumn when she won the G1 Australia Cup here over 2000m in great style and followed that up by taking the G1 Tancred at Newcastle over 2400m. This prep she has been no better than OK, but there was promise in her Caulfield Cup run where she had to sit in 14^th place and was forced to come very wide round the final bend. At the 400m marker she was still in 16^th place and ended up finishing 8th. Based on that effort it does look like she needs 3200m now and it could just be that she's working herself to hit peak form here.

 

Knights Order - Was stuffed in this race last year when only 19th, but he should be able to improve on that this time around as he has been in much better form since. He won the Sydney Cup when making all and then won the G2 Chelmsford over 1600m. He's run well in 3 starts since then including a 4^th in the Turnbull and 3^rd in the Caulfield Cup when beaten a length. He handles any ground so won't mind if it does become a heavy track, but he has drawn a stinker of a stall in 24. He is going to be doing very well to get across to lead without using too much energy up and because of that I think he is opposable. We do at least know he stays the trip and if he had drawn lower then I might have been tempted to back him.

 

Montefilia - She is a top class horse on her day and finished 4^th in the Caulfield Cup for the 2^nd year running. She came into that having run poorly at Randwick on a Heavy 8, but connections blamed the ground that day and whilst she has won on a heavy track that day was especially bad so I don't actually have an issue with her if it comes up heavy here. She looked arguably was the run of the race at Caulfield as she was bumped at the top of the straight and her final 200m split of 11.8 was the 7^th fastest of the meeting. At the 400m she was still in 14^th place having been in 16^th for most of the trip. The trip is a query as she hasn't been this far, but clearly she sees 2400m out well and I think she will stay. Has a big chance for me.

 

Numerian - Has done well this year and was a very good 5^th in the Caulfield Cup last time. He was on speed in that race though sitting in 2^nd place throughout and given they didn't go much of a gallop it has to be a concern that he faded into 5^th given he has to go an extra 800m here.

 

Without A Fight - This has always been the target for him this season and we know he handles travel as he was 2^nd to Hukum in Meydan back in March. He won a couple of times over 2800m at York in the summer which proved that he is highly likely to stay 3200m in this and that he can quicken off a slow tempo which could be vital here. His prep run was at Newmarket last month where he was well to finish 2^nd over 2400m giving away weight to the winner. I like the depth of his form and although ideally he could have been drawn a little lower than 18 he does have the services of William Buick to help on that front. He's won on soft at Newbury and Haydock and I reckon those surfaces are at least as testing as what he will end up facing here. He has a big chance for me.

 

Camorra - Having his 1^st start in Australia having been trained by Ger Lyons and he landed the Curragh Cup in June which has been a very good pointer for this race in recent years. I'm not sure that was a very strong race this time around though and the big concern has to be his shocking run in the Irish St Leger last time. He did handle heavy tracks in his younger days, but his form since then points to him needing a good surface. On balance he looks opposable.

 

Deauville Legend - European 3yos managed to win this race twice in 2017 and 2018, but both of those winners carried much lesser weight than he has to. He broke his maiden tag at Windsor in April and then was 2^nd in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot. He then took the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket before finishing 2^nd in the Gordon Stakes (a neck in front of Hoo Ya Mal) and then took the Great Voltigeur last time at York. Mixed messages from the form of that race as the 2^nd ran poorly on his next start but the 3^rd El Bodegon was 3^rd in the Cox Plate. He's unproven over this far, but I don't have an issue about that what I do think could be an issue is a wet track as he has never encountered one yet. Kerrin McEvoy has a superb record in this race so that is a big plus. He clearly has a chance, but he is a very short price favourite.

 

Stockman - Had a bizarre prep for this when he ran in the Rosehill Cup on Saturday over 2000m when finishing 8th. A couple weeks ago on his previous start he landed the St Leger at Randwick over 2600m and the 4^th in the Met was decent as well. He loves a wet track so that is a plus, but he was poor in the Sydney Cup and that has to be a concern.

 

Vow And Declare - The 2019 Melbourne Cup winner who came into that race having finished 2^nd in the Caulfield Cup. Things went badly wrong for him after the Melbourne Cup win though and he just hadn't been in the same form. This prep however he has re-found his best form again. He was 3^rd behind High Emocean over 2500m in September and then was 5^th in the Bart Cummings over the same trip. This year he was 6^th in the Caulfield Cup, but it was a run full pf promise as he plugged away well and bodes well for a decent run here. A top 6 showing wouldn't surprise, but at the same time it is hard to think he can win this given he hasn't won since his Cup win.

 

Young Werther - On his day he is capable of some useful form having finished 2^nd in last year's Turnbull and he was 3^rd in this year's renewal. Was only 8^th in last year's Caulfield Cup though and finished 10^th in the Cox Plate last time. To be fair that was probably as good as he could have hoped for as he wasn't beaten far at Moonee Valley. The trip has to be a concern as is the face his only win came in a maiden at Geelong over 1500m. It would be a little surprising if his 2^nd win was the Melbourne Cup.

 

Hoo Ya Mal - Was a very surprising 2^nd in the Derby this year behind Desert Crown and after that he was sold for a small fortune with this race as the target. He was 3^rd just behind Deauville Legend in the Gordon Stakes and then won the March Stakes at very short odds. He then ran in the St Leger and ran very poorly. The ground was given as an excuse which is worrying given it will be a wet track here as well. I suspect he is better than he showed at Doncaster and I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but at the same time he doesn't jump out as a horse I want to back.

 

Serpentine - After a Derby 2^nd we have a Derby winner in the shape of Serpintine. He had shown nothing at all in 4 starts in Australia and then all of a sudden he finds some form on Saturday when he was 2^nd in the Archer Stakes over 2500m. I'm not sure the form of that race is especially strong though and given he tends to make the running his draw of 23 is just as problematic as 24 is for Kings Order.

 

Daqianseet Junior - This year's Adalaide Cup and followed that up with a 3^rd behind Knights Order in the Sydney Cup. So we know he will stay, but the Adalaide Cup is never a strong race and he was 4.5L behind the winner in the Sydney Cup. His 3 runs this prep have been poor as well so looks to have a stiffish task to trouble the judge. 

 

Grand Promenade - Finished a decent enough 6^th in this race last year and has won here 3 times so those are the pluses, but he has been woeful this prep. He was a well beaten 4^th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time and he usually struggles on a heavy track which is a big concern given the forecast so he so he wouldn't be for me.

 

Arapaho - Has had a very un-Australian like prep as he's been on the go since March and raced 14 times. Pluses are he likes a wet track, but to be honest that is about it. He's been running sound enough races and was 2^nd to Stockman in the St Leger last time, but it's hard to see him being good enough to win this.

 

Emissary - Hugo Palmer trained this one back in 2019/20 and he managed to beat 1 home in Serpentine's Derby. Won a Listed Race at Caulfield in August, but was only 8^th in the Herbert Power at Caulfield. He bounced back to form big style though when he took out the Geelong Cup, but there is every chance that improvement came because he was on a Good 4 and his runs on worse than a Soft 5 are not great. The 2^nd in the Geelong Cup did win here on Saturday so at least the form has been boosted.

 

Lunar Flare - Won her way into this when winning the Bart Cummings a month ago beating Francesco Guardi who reversed the form in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup when Lunar Flare finished 2^nd to him. They did finish in a bit of a heap in the Bart Cummings though which makes me think it might not be strong form race and I would have preferred Francesco Guardi's chances had that one been running. Also, the only she raced over further than 2500m she was well beaten,

 

Smokin' Romans - Wasn't given the best of rides when sent off a short price favourite for the Caulfield Cup which came on the back of wins in the G3 Naturalism and the Turnbull. Finished 7^th at Caulfield and he is better than that. The trip is an unknown, but he handles a wet track and whilst I wont be backing him a bold show would not be a surprise.

 

Tralee Rose - Was 9^th in this last year after winning the Geelong Cup and doesn't come here in good form at all. Was 13^th in the Caulfield Cup and whilst she was a bit unlucky not to finish closer that day she clearly comes here in much worse form than last year's race.

 

High Emocean - We know she handles a wet track so that is a big tick and she comes here in great form having won the Bendigo Cup last week. She was given a very good ride that day though so she might have been slightly flattered by that win and the Bendigo Cup isn't usually a key prep race for this.

 

Interpretation - Ex Aiden O'Brien who finished 4^th behind Hurricane Lane in last year's St Leger. He has been running OK since coming to Australia and although on paper his 6^th in the Geelong Cup wouldn't be good enough for this he was racing in the worst part of the track so you can forgive him. He should stay this trip given his form over here and he could be one that is flying under the radar as he hasn't been able to show his peak form in Australia. He will also feel like he's running lose with just 50kg on his back.

 

Realm Of Flowers - Her last run in the Metropolitan a month ago when running very well to just be beaten into 3rd. She won the Andrew Ramsden here in 2021 and was only just beaten in the Sandown Cup (3200m) in 2020 so the trip isn't a concern. She has a chance, but overall there are others I prefer to back.

 

Verdict - Just like last year's race it doesn't look that strong a renewal and in fact it probably is an even weaker contest. In a normal year I don't think Deauville Legend would be such a short price favourite, but clearly he has some of the leading form for this. I do think though at 5/2 he is worth taking on and he helps create the market especially given bookies are offering extra places. For me the most likely winner is Without A Fight. I like his form in this country and this has been the target for him for some time. Verry Elleegant came from the same stall (18) last year and the 3 winners before that came from 12, 21 and 19 so his draw is not a negative. He should stay and he should handle to track as well. Everything looks in place for a big run and he can give the UK a 2^nd win in the race. I am then going to take a couple from the Caulfield Cup. Montefillia put in a huge performance at Caulfield and she should be capable of going very close here on the back of that. Granted better luck she could easily be coming here as a Caulfield Cup winner. Duais is the other one to take from the race. She looks like she is running herself into form based on the Caulfield Cup effort and her form from last prep would see her a much shorter price than she currently is. Finally I am going to take a bit of a flyer with Interpretation. He has no weight on his back and on his form for Aiden O'Brien he looks very well handicapped. I don't think he's been able to show his best so far in Australia and whilst he does need to step up on what he has shown the fact he gets in with just 50kg is a big plus for him.

 

NB In Australia they only ever offer 3 places so Bet365's market at the moment is only to 3 places. They usually offer a UK only market where they offer more places, but it can be well hidden and I haven't found it as yet.

 

1 Without A Fight e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill (6 places)

2 Montefillia e/w @ 9/1 with Skybet (7 places) Bet365 are 11/1

3 Duais e/w @ 22/1 with William Hill (6 places) Bet365 are 25/1

4 Interpretation e/w @ 33/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (5 places) 28/1 Skybet 7 places Bet365 are 50/1

[Tedthewolf]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-2022-form-guide-tips-horses-odds-favourite-find-a-winner-in-5-minutes/news-story/024f148cd7be6a8f22c207ea1d33c5df