Aintree Foxhunters' preview

[Darran]

Here is my Aintree Foxhunters' preview. As I explain at the end we are getting some tremendous e/w value so am attacking the race strongly in the hope the winner is covered and a couple more hit the frame. Ultimately though place the bets you feel comfortable placing on the race, but I felt it fair to put up exactly how I have placed my bets on the race. 

 

Actival - No doubt will give his jockey a nice spin round, but his form this season is nowhere near good enough to get involved at the business end of the race.

 

Another Venture - Thought his 2^nd in the opening hunter chase of the season was a solid effort and then at Bangor he probably didn't enjoy being ridden so prominently. Even so he looks another one that should give his jockey a nice spin round without being good enough to trouble the judge.

 

Cat Tiger - All the talk had been that Bob And Co was going to be the chosen Maxwell runner but he has had a late change of heart. He was in front jumping the last in this last year, but then he faded to finish 3rd. I was a bit surprised that after the Grand Sefton Maxwell said that the horse didn't handle the track given he ran so well last year. I just thought he didn't get a great ride in the Grand Sefton which was the reason he was a well beaten 5th. After that he was 2^nd at Doncaster and then won at Ascot in January. He ran in the Kim Muir last month but never got competitive which is a concern, but he has to be one for the shortlist based on his previous form this season and last year's 3rd.

 

Clondaw Westie - Ran a hell of a race in this last year to finish 4^th at 200/1 and he backed that up with a good 2^nd at Cheltenham and he would likely have won at Stratford if he hadn't unseated his jockey at the last. He has had 4 starts this season in points and has failed to complete twice and finished 2^nd twice. He didn't exactly come into this race last year in very good form and arguably he's run better this time around. No doubt he has been trained for this race and as much as it's hard to see him being good enough to win you couldn't rule out another good showing and possibly hitting the frame at big odds again.

 

Complete Sizing - Won a maiden hunter chase at Clonmel last year for his former connections, but followed that up with a fairly well beaten 2^nd to Some Man. He's now trained by Phil Rowley and was a well beaten 3^rd behind Premier Magic and Porlock Bay at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. He did follow that up with a win at Bangor's point to point course, but that level of form would need to be improved on by a fair bit to get seriously involved here.

 

Cousin Pascal - As I mentioned in my Cheltenham preview he has a history of running poorly when facing a long trip in the horse box. Maybe that was to blame for his Cheltenham performance, but he ran no sort of race that day and if anything I'm surprised James didn't pull him up sooner with this race in mind. James gave him a peach of a ride last year and I certainly think his ride won him the race as he gave him the perfect Aintree ride. He is a horse that has bounced back after poor efforts so the Cheltenham run wouldn't put me off as such and I think he has to go on anyone's shortlist.

 

Dashing Perk - Trainer has won this before and this horse only got as far as the first last year when he was bumped into and came down. Has run twice this season in veterans' races pulling up at Haydock and then finishing a well beaten 4^th in the final at Sandown. I thought he was short enough last year at 12/1, but obviously impossible to know how he would have got on. It wouldn't be a total shock if he was able to be involved, but for me there is a lot of guesswork involved about what form he is in and the percentage call for me is to oppose.

 

Demain Des L'aube - Has run like a non-stayer in points this season and he backed up that view at Carlisle in a hunter chase last time. He travelled well enough into the race, but then didn't see out the trip. I just wonder if he ran there to qualify for this and the drop back in trip will certainly suit. Connections have had a big price placed horse in this in the recent pass and although he would be a surprise winner I wouldn't be overly surprised if he finished in the top half of the field.

 

Down The Highway - Only managed to win 1 point in Ireland from 5 starts and then was a well beaten 3^rd in a hunter chase at Gowran Park last time. Looks an unlikely winner to me.

 

Drumconnor Lad - Thought he ran well enough on his hunter chase debut in the Walrus at Haydock although might have been a bit flattered to finish as close as he did as they went no pace. Dropped down to 2m last time at Leicester where he stayed on well to be beaten less than a length having been outpaced. I think this trip will suit and can see him running well enough, but I'd be a bit surprised if he ended up in the frame.

 

Ferocious - Ought to be massively outclassed here.

 

Golden Tobouggan - A rather quirky horse who has plenty of ability but doesn't win as many races as he should. Ran well for a long way in this last year before weakening at 3 out and then pulling up before 2 out. If he settled better this year then I can see him getting round, but that could be easier said than done with him.

 

Jett - Gave a real bold sight out in front in last year's National and was only headed as they turned for home. He jumped really well and clearly enjoyed the experience of jumping these fences. His seasonal return came in a handicap at Doncaster and he ran a cracking race to finish 3^rd off 152 in a race that has worked out really well. Connections then made a late decision to try and qualify him for Cheltenham. He had a simple task at Kelso and then went to Fontwell where he was 2^nd to Shantou Flyer. I thought it was telling that connections decided to skip Cheltenham after that because he seemed to not really go through with his effort after taken the lead. I can't have it that Kelso took anything out of him because he would have had harder gallops than what he had to do that day. Possibly Fontwell didn't suit him and we know that Aintree does and if he runs to his Doncaster effort then he has a big chance. I just worry though that he won't repeat that and he might find it tougher to make the running over this shorter trip where they will be going quicker. If he won it wouldn't surprise me and his jockey has a great record over these fences, but I think his price is short enough at the moment.

 

Latenightpass - Ran a huge race to finish 2^nd in this last year especially as he had been to Cheltenham first and finished 4^th their. I actually thought him going very wide at the Canal Turn was the difference between him winning and losing last year as Cousin Pascal must have saved at least the distance he beat him by. This year connections have decided to bypass Cheltenham which was a sensible decision and have kept him to pointing. He has won 2, but in between he did fall at the last when looking the winner. It was an uncharacteristic fall so I'm not worried about his jumping and he has a huge chance.

 

Le Breuil - Has finished 3^rd in a Becher Chase before although he pulled up in this season's renewal. Was a fair 3^rd at Ascot in a handicap behind Cat Tiger in January and then ran well enough in hunter chases at Wetherby and Doncaster. He actually looked the winner for a long way at Doncaster, but emptied quite quickly after a peck on landing at 4 out. His last win was in the National Hunt Chase so he ought to have stayed better than he did that day and he looks an unlikely winner for me.

 

Marrcudja - Plenty to like about his two hunter chase performances so far with a good 3^rd at Hereford just behind Cousin Pascal and then he bolted up at Leicester. I think he is one of the possible winners here and I'm a big fan of his jockey although he can't use his claim.

 

Michael's Pick - Landed a maiden hunter chase at Downpatrick last month, but that form is way below what is needed here as is the rest of his form.

 

Mighty Stowaway - Ran a huge race at Cheltenham to finish 3^rd where he didn't quite see out the race as well as the first 2 having kicked for home with Winged Leader. He was put up for sale on Twitter last week and he has now moved to Lawney Hill's yard. Clearly they won't have had him for very long. The big concern for me though is he looked like he hated it last year when he finished 10^th and the Cheltenham effort was for me by far a personal best. If he does back that up and he takes to the fences then he clearly has a chance, but they are big enough ifs for me to not want to get involved.

 

Myth Buster - It was a bad hunter chase he won at Musselburgh and he's been beaten in 3 points so far this season so he would be a surprising winner for me.

 

Pont Aven - You have to give him some credit for actually getting round at Cheltenham given so few did, but I was right about him not being able to bully that field in the same way he had lesser fields in points and at Ludlow. I think this test has every chance of suiting him better than Cheltenham, but his jumping has been an issue in the past and the worry is he might make one mistake too many round here and that would cost him. Also has the Cheltenham experience left a mark? I'd probably be keener on his chances if he had come straight here. 

 

Porlock Bay - I always thought Aintree would suit him more than Cheltenham and as much as I thought he had the quality to win at Cheltenham I wasn't sure he had the stamina needed. He proved me wrong though as him and Billaway pulled a long way clear of the rest. Connections then decided to put him away and he reappeared with a 2^nd at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas to Premier Magic which I thought was a really good effort as Porlock Bay probably wasn't as fit as the winner that day. Although he was 2^nd at Bangor he took a backwards step for me and it was no surprise to hear after the race that he had an issue which meant he would skip Cheltenham. In an ideal world you would have liked to have seen him get a little prep run in somewhere, but if he is back to the level he showed at Cheltenham last season then he will go very close here as I think this test promises to suit him even more.

 

Reikers Island - Bolted up in the final hunter chase of last season at Cartmel and then won the 2^nd one of this season at Warwick. Neither were especially strong heats but he did it well enough. He was well beaten in a point last month although the heavy ground might have been to blame. Can give his jockey a good spin round, but hard for me to see him playing a part in the finish.

 

Stand Up And Fight - On his day he's capable of good form, but he's not really shown a great deal so far this season, especially in 2 hunter chases including when he was a well beaten 4^th behind Winged Leader.

 

The Dellercheckout - Won a couple of points on his first two runs of the season, but was 25L behind Pont Aven at Ludlow and was then beaten in a point last month. Can see him getting round, but a top 10 finish at most for me.

 

Verdict - With the extra places we have on offer we are getting some incredible value especially with Bet365 and Skybet who are going 6 places which is staggering because there are so many horses that have no chance. Most of the others are going 5 places. I am going to base the bets around Bet365 and Skybet's offer because it is so generous and because of that I am going to stake more on race than I usually would. What I will say is that I do think these horses have a great chance of a top 5 finish as well, but I would maybe reduce the stakes a little. The main bet is going to be Latenightpass. I really do think if he hadn't lost so much ground at the Canal Turn last year he would have won and with him skipping Cheltenham he is going to be primed for this and I just can't see him not at least landing the e/w part of the bet. Given I thought Porlock Bay would have a better chance at Aintree than Cheltenham he is next on the list. There was nothing wrong with his seasonal return and as much as he was disappointing at Bangor there was an excuse that day so we can forgive him that. If he can run anywhere near his Cheltenham effort from last year then he's a massive chance of winning this. I think Pont Aven is overpriced even though I'm concerned about his jumping and the fact he had a hard race at Cheltenham. Again I thought Aintree would suit him more and I think the concerns are more than factored into his current price at the time of writing of 16/1. I have to have some coverage on Cousin Pascal because if he had skipped Cheltenham he would be half the price he is now. Given he has bounced back from poor runs before I don't have too many concerns about his poor effort at Cheltenham. I think other possible winners are Jett, Cat Tiger, Mighty Stowaway and Marracudja and I'd be a little surprised if one of those 7 didn't win.

 

I am going to have a couple of small bets at some bigger prices though as no doubt there will be something at a big price who will finish placed. Drumconnor Lad will like this trip and I think he has the ability to outrun his odds and Demain Des L'aube is a massive price, but this trip is going to be much more suitable than what he has been running over this season and he's shown he still has a fair bit of ability. Hopefully the winner is amongst the 6 bets and we can get a couple more hitting the frame as well to make a nice profit on the race.

 

Latenightpass 2.5pts e/w @ 11/2 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 5/1 e/w and then have 2.5pts win up to 4/1)

Porlock Bay 1pt e/w @ 7/1 with Bet365 (take up to 11/2)

Pont Aven 0.75pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 10/10)

Cousin Pascal 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365 (take up to 7/1)

Drumconnor Lad 0.25pts e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365 and Skybet (take up to 25/1)

Demain Des L'aube 0.25pts e/w @ 100/1 with Skybet (take up to 50/1)

[yossa6133]

Got some 5's e/w Latenightpass, hard to see him out the frame and I don't fancy Jett or Cat Tiger.