Shortening and drifting odds

[pedigreechump6]

I realise that odds change depending on where the money is heading, but that surely doesnt mean a horse has more or less chance of winning than before does it? I have just been looking through todays racecards and noticed that for the race at Epsom 3.25 the odds on Fruit Of Glory have gone from 9/2 on the betting forecast to 10/1. in contrast the odds for One Putra have gone from 7/1 to 10/3. Is the betting forecast just a bit unreliable? If the odds drift considerably, surely this means better value for the punter? The horses haven't changed at all so why the sudden swing in odds?

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Shortening and drifting odds Many reasons for it but one of the top of my head is going changes. A horse can be priced up expecting one type of ground and then drift when its found the ground may not be as suitable as expected. The way the horse looks in the stable, parade ring and going down can also affect it. Is it making a fuss, does it look calm, is it sweating up? You're right. The horse is the same but people are being exposed to more information.

[pedigreechump6]

Re: Shortening and drifting odds I see. That makes it a little harder for people like me who tend to make my picks based on form. If I see a horse's odds have drifted I tend to be wary but have never relaised why things can change so dramatically. Is it a sensible strategy to follow the money? I mean are the horses whose odds have shortened really that much more likely to win? What about the horses whose odds have drifted, are they ones to avoid? Are there any stats on such horses anywhere for me to look at?

[pedigreechump6]

Re: Shortening and drifting odds Just found this in an article: Horses that are forecast favourites do considerably better if they actually start as favourite. Horses that are forecast favourite and are favourite at the “off ” (favourite at SP) win 34.8% of their races. Horses that are forecast favourite and are not favourite at the “ off ” win only 18.2% of their races. don't know how reliable this info is, but if true it justifies the lengthening odds of a horse.