Upsets likely in which sort of race?

[pedigreechump6]

I was just wondering if there are certain races where the favorite might stand less of a chance and the outsiders more of a chance than usual? Just some examples: Upsets more likely in races in class 1 or class 6? Upsets more likely in handicap races or not? Upsets more likely over longer races or sprints? Upsets more likely on firm ground or soft? Just wondering as it might help me in my new picking process where I intend to find favs or 2nd favs who I think will be unplaced.

[Aykay1]

Re: Upsets likely in which sort of race? Hi pedigree, welcome to the PL :) Just some brief personal thoughts on your questions (sorry to be brief but im on my way out) 1. I would suggest you get more shocks in lower class races 2. Yes i would say upsets are more likely in handicap races. This is because, how can i put it..... trainers and owners like to "play" the handicap system on occasions. This isnt always apparent to the blinkered punter for obvious reasons. 3. I would say upsets are more likely in sprint races where a bit of luck is often required. if a horses gets bumped or blocked, he will have less time to recover in a sprint race. 4. In my experience soft ground tends to throw up all sorts of funny results as it seems to make a lot of horses only half as effective as they normaly would be. Im sure others will disagree with some of the above but they are my personal thoughts anyway...

[bowles10]

Re: Upsets likely in which sort of race? i think it's very difficult pedigree to make any judgement. However, i would expect fav's to do well in class 1 or Group races as these are top quality horses, albeit they still have to beat other quality animals. In class 4-6 handicaps, horses may be on a long losing streak so it's likely the favourite may get beaten. There are probably stats for these races somewhere. Like AK, i think the ground changes (especially on the day) throw up all sorts of strange results. i.e G/Firm ground suddenly changing to soft after a downpour. Large meetings like Ascot/York/Goodwood may be ideal for laying favourites also as there are so many horses actually trying for the big prize money.